Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[damianslaw]

Thicknesses on ECM for Thursday sub 528 dam air north of UK... by day 10 sub 522 dam air knocking on door of NW Scotland. Depth of cold evident Iceland sub 510 dam air first time this season seen that. Shows if we tap into any arctic air from now on it will be jolly cold.

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,ECM looking interesting at 192hrs onwards been following high pressure leaving Canadian eastern sea board from around 168 hrs as the track across Atlantic keeping far enough north.The end result with low pressure to our north/northeast bringing a more colder changeable pattern,showing in GEFS 12 z around end of month with a distinct drop in temperatures from ensembles.Meanwhile day time temperatures in Oxford managed 3.6c after -7c in Wallingford Oxfordshire overnight pretty impressive.

 

 

 

 

Not the best at Maths so correct if wrong but that is a return of -1.7 mean. Someone said there is no cold about!

[Valleyboy]

24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’ll be cold enough on day 11 for snow, if it happened obviously!! 

Snow only on high ground in the north.  There’s just too much moderation with this set up.

[Kasim Awan]

25 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not the best at Maths so correct if wrong but that is a return of -1.7 mean. Someone said there is no cold about!

Mean would be near 2c - only -1.7c for 1 hour and the mean is the average of all hour observations.

[mulzy]

Extended mean eps suggests the low heights to the north east migrating back to the Greenland locale resulting in heights rising across Europe - pretty uninspiring.  However a hint of height rises to the north east possible - need to check the clusters.

Edited January 21, 2022 by mulzy

[stodge]

Evening all

Just the first hints of a change in the benign and quiet pattern which has been 2022 to date.

A jolly chilly day here in lowland East London after yet another frost so while snow has been absent thus far, winter hasn't.

GFS toying with building heights through Scandinavia but more of the models are starting in the furthest depths of FI to show the HP relaxing back into the Atlantic and allowing LP to develop in the Griceland area and head into Scandinavia allowing PM air into the British isles and as someone else has commented, PM air from now on is going to be very cold.

To be fair it's still a very long off and the demise of the anticyclonic regime has been posited before without coming to fruition so plenty of caution required.

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello sir!

[tight isobar]

Ok soo- finally we have a preety solid certainty of pattern change going into feb- to boot I can’t remember such down breaching of mean. If the ens are on this and leading forward, then I’d expect to start seeing “ very soon “ finally such craved- and more likely to occur Synoptics!. Even the 18z may start to reveal @ stark north west/ northerly modelling!...@ incursions.

Edited January 21, 2022 by tight isobar

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Eps says no!  Eps suggests Euro heights; gefs suggest neutral/low heights over Europe.  Big divergence - I know which one I trust.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Eps says no!  Eps suggests Euro heights; gefs suggest neutral/low heights over Europe.  Big divergence - I know which one I trust.

Yeah I’ve viewed them and most other outs!.. but I’m gunning for some notable cold = snow @mulzy- so for the time being... I’m opting for the gefs/ gfs... and it’s in with a chance... much as the other suite/ set

[MJB]

Not too bad 

[tight isobar]

It’s there so I’m posting it@1st February. And there many more frames worthy also.. @ 500s

Edited January 21, 2022 by tight isobar

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Mean would be near 2c - only -1.7c for 1 hour and the mean is the average of all hour observations.

Not sure about the maths there. Was-7 not -1.7 and if taking the mean of the max and min -1.7 is correct. 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Not sure about the maths there. Was-7 not -1.7 and if taking the mean of the max and min -1.7 is correct. 

Sorry I meant only -7 for one hour. A mean daily temperature is not calculated using the max and min. It's the mean hourly temps /24. So given that min value was only for an hour or so and the max temps were above 2c for a lot longer, the avg is likely higher than -1.7c.

[phil nw.]

I read the daily cet as simply min+max divided by 2.

MO link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Although some adjustments are sometimes made as explained in the read up.

[frosty ground]

 

a rather cold north westerly next week 

[Staffmoorlands]

19 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

 

a rather cold north westerly next week 

Looks good, much better than the current weather 

[Ali1977]

Day 10 looking good, similar to ECM but maybe a day ahead - hopefully a good PM shot for a day or 2 

[Mike Poole]

Finally!  Something that looks interesting within the 10 day range, GFS 18z at T228:

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Big mid Feb SSW signature on this run.

[tight isobar]

Thass- what I’m talking about we get a twinned patt changeover- and trough drop- allowances then for at least MLB occurance!. And with that get a drawn line into some decent cold- eventually! This being  more than picked at via supports for the raw!.. 

Edited January 21, 2022 by tight isobar

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Finally!  Something that looks interesting within the 10 day range, GFS 18z at T228:

 

Up the garden path again or will something actually go right this winter?! 

[BelgianBlizzard]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Finally!  Something that looks interesting within the 10 day range, GFS 18z at T228:

Yeah, we haven 't even had decent 10+ charts from the gfs for a few weeks...hopefully something's finally changing! 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Up the garden path again or will something actually go right this winter?! 

A polar maritime flow- shot is much more likely than some of the other sways we’ve seen synopticaly modelling  for weeks now- and as a start point I’m sure most... indeed if not ALL will take it hands down now!. And we have a very decent footprint for overall pattern change now too...

Edited January 21, 2022 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Up the garden path again or will something actually go right this winter?! 

Unlikely within D10 timeframe, maybe a while after - that's a maybe though, far from a definite.