Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Midlander]

Arpege 18Z:  No point in over-analysing Top is 12Z, bottom is 18Z  -  A snapshot at 14Z

Edit: A shift north compared to 12Z

Edited February 16, 2022 by Midlander

[StingJet]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

No thanks, please be a pub run special.

That 'll be a tight squeeze through the Dover Straits,,  I wonder what the Dutch Weather forums are posting on Eunice atm  , you certainly would n't want your "Levee" to break with one of these heading in coupled with high tides  

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Midlander said:

Arpege 18Z:  No point in over-analysing

 

 

 

Also a shift north from 12z

[mbrothers]

On 16/02/2022 at 22:17, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't worry I'm sure I see a wheelie bin or two going down the road. It just be a tad breezy here and nothing more at this rate.

 

Perhaps another thread would suit you better

[Danimal81]

I would just like to say one thing regarding Fridays storm.. #blueshed.

If you know you know

[Midlander]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Also a shift north from 12z

Oh yeah 

[Wivenswold]

1 minute ago, Midlander said:

Arpege 18Z:  No point in over-analysing Top is 12Z, bottom is 18Z

 

 

That feature in the 18z one over the Midlands that looks like Kermit the Frog....what would cause that do you think? Is it modelling a sting-jet event? 

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

That feature in the 18z one over the Midlands that looks like Kermit the Frog....what would cause that do you think? Is it modelling a sting-jet event? 

Yeah it looked weird, it develops when passing the country, don't know to be honest

Edited February 16, 2022 by Midlander

[Kentspur]

I'm currently on hols im staying in the Thetford forest in East Anglia we had an upgraded Amber warning for today's storm even here in Suffolk&Norfolk its a little breezy in the pine covered forest hope I don't get a fallen tree land on top of me. More concerning is that I'm driving back to Kent on Friday not sure if the crossing will even be open and what time to leave seems to be earlier the better but I didn't want to get back rush hour

Edited February 16, 2022 by Kentspur

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Danimal81 said:

I would just like to say one thing regarding Fridays storm.. #blueshed.

If you know you know

Ahh now that brings back memories!

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s quite bizarre .

Some people seem a bit disappointed that their location might not see the strongest winds .

Given these winds could bring down power lines , rip off roofs and cause major destruction am I missing something .

Perhaps it’s my storm phobia talking but really I hope Eunice just gets lost !

Couldn't agree more, I have to admit that some of the charts today have made me feel sick to my stomach! 

Downgrades tomorrow please  

[pages]

As I suggested earlier after 12z runs of ECM and GFS trended deeper and north models haven't shown just how bad this is going to be yet.

I expect the overnight runs to very slightly intensive the winds with a even deeper system. In last two runs from GFS it's already 10mb deeper for Friday lunchtime.

Somewhere in Wales is unfortunately going to get 100mph winds. 80+ everywhere south of Birmingham at some point.

Edited February 16, 2022 by pages

[If Wishes made Weather]

Slightly further north or not, it seems not to make much of a difference.  Sort of like does my roof land in my neighbours garden, or their neighbours.     Quite simply a swathe of the southwest, southern and middle England, Wales and some parts of the north are going to see 80+ mph winds and much of that is inland.  Looks quite ferocious around this neck of the woods in the northern Home Counties / Anglia region - and this has been showing despite subtle track differences for three days or so.

 

[booferking]

Peb 1 no thanks

[Dunstable Snow]

We needed the low to be shallower and come South - give the midlands and the south a decent snow event with no structural damage to infrastructure and those planning to travel on Friday- snow would have been much more manageable- anyway not happening of course - usual crap for this country I’m afraid. 

[Snowyowl9]

Burns day storm tracking...

[StingJet]

28 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

That feature in the 18z one over the Midlands that looks like Kermit the Frog....what would cause that do you think? Is it modelling a sting-jet event? 

That's a good question ,  can the forecast models actually model a sting jet event, given sufficient evidence for all the precursors to be met .. not sure .

I am on my 3rd pass of the webcast analysing historic big wind events and associated SJ formation 

and the corresponding chart for the SJ event in Scotland 03/01/2012

 

and the chart from the 18th Jan 2007 "Storm Kyrill"

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by StingJet

[alexisj9]

48 minutes ago, matty40s said:

What's the point of a CObra meeting when the Prime Minister cant even fill out his own questionnaire?

So everyone else who needs to know stuff can set things in motion.

[shunthebartlett92]

7 minutes ago, Dunstable Snow said:

We needed the low to be shallower and come South - give the midlands and the south a decent snow event with no structural damage to infrastructure and those planning to travel on Friday- snow would have been much more manageable- anyway not happening of course - usual crap for this country I’m afraid. 

Spot on. It’s a double whammy, horrendous winds and not a flake in sight! Just really hoping the morning runs show a bit of a reduction 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s quite bizarre .

Some people seem a bit disappointed that their location might not see the strongest winds .

Given these winds could bring down power lines , rip off roofs and cause major destruction am I missing something .

Perhaps it’s my storm phobia talking but really I hope Eunice just gets lost!

There's a strange motivation among some posters who are desperate to be the biggest cynics and naysayers about anything that has piqued other members' interest.

[Nick F]

Storm Eunice forming as we speak over the Atlantic, cloud head along baroclinic / frontal zone and kink in isobars 

[nick sussex]

The Arpege elongates the centre of the low and develops a secondary circulation and this adds insult to injury as it further squeezes the isobars on the southern flank .

You don’t want this unless you want your roof blown off ! 

Even at this late stage there’s still uncertainty as to the exact formation of the spawn of Satan low ! 

[matty40s]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So everyone else who needs to know stuff can set things in motion.

Everyone else who needs to know has probably done this already.

[WelshWanderer]

I live on the sea front in Swansea and normally I love storms but tbh this one has me very worried- 100mph wind is no bloody joke and highly dangerous.

[Bradowl]

Going to Southwell races on Friday, I do hope that the weather is nice.