Storm Eunice - 18th February

[Bradowl]

3 minutes ago, Lesley89 said:

Just wondering how bad this storm will be in northern ireland tomorrow (belfast) I'm planning on taking the kids out but not sure if I should reschedule. 

 

 

My guess is that N Ireland will miss out on the worst of the winds.

[Darren Vidamour]

Excuse my limited weather forecasting knowledge, but what sort of wind gusts can I expect in the higher parts of Bradford? I really don't have faith the BBC app at all. Got quite a few friends that rely on me feeding back the information from this forum. Thank you and stay safe all.

[Mark Smithy]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

but I'm simply giving my opinion on the current weather.

 

You're not though. You have been at it incessantly and without any reference to anything meteorological, just a refrain that it always downgrades which you're now splatting across other locations than your own. 

Learn from good forecasters on here and do read NickF's brilliant analysis.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/11305-major-storm-eunice-this-friday---synoptic-analysis

 

[weirpig]

Very breezy.  Mid  90s around the south west  pushing close to 80  intowards Birmingham

[Met4Cast]

The pressure that wind exerts is exponential, this is something that probably not many people are aware of. 80mph exerts about twice as much force as 60 mph for example. 

Image via: James Peacock 

[Mark Smithy]

9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It depends

You kind-of revealed your hand with this one  "Don't worry, I'm sure we will see a wheelie bin or two going down the road. It will just be a tad breezy, nothing more."

Listen, I bear you no ill and hope you enjoy Cornwall. Just stop winding people up about a storm that is evidently going to be severe.

[Thunder and Lightning]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

The pressure that wind exerts is exponential, this is something that probably not many people are aware of. 80mph exerts about twice as much force as 60 mph for example. 

Image via: James Peacock 

Can you imagine if we get those 90-100+mph gusts from a sting jet 

[Dbarb]

Just because your location has been downgraded by a few mph doesn't mean it's a downgraded for the rest of the country. If anything overall there's been an upgrade for the most populated areas like London and the southeast

[Liam Burge]

6 minutes ago, sclarke said:

I hate the terms 'downgrades' being thrown around in the context of this storm.  It's not a snow storm and we're not talking snow depths.

The difference between a 75mph sustained gust to an 85mph sustained gust is zilch, severe damage will still occur. You can still get damage way down in the 40-30's MPH winds, so to use the word downgrade in this context is stupid and very misleading.

There's no way away from the fact that big swathes of this country is going to see significant damage and disruption tomorrow, some may report higher wind gusts than others, but in the grand scheme that doesn't change the overall picture of how disruptive this will be for many millions.

My intention wasn't to make this storm seem like it's nothing to worry about, sorry if it seemed like t hat.

[Met4Cast]

Seems rather trivial to be arguing about downgrades/upgrades when the simple fact of the matter is, people will likely lose their lives as a result of this storm. The potential is there for it to be severe. 

All it takes is to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Met4Cast

[Captain Shortwave]

Unfortunately it looks like the worst affected regions will be directly where some of the major river crossings are. Both Severn bridges, the Queen Elizabeth (Dartford) and the Orwell bridge south of Ipswich. I suspect a red warning will be issued for the Severn Estuary and possibly the east coast of East Anglia running from the Thames estuary to north Suffolk, the latter is if the models suggest a southerly component to the winds. The GFS still has 90mph gusts for these locations on the latest run.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[If Wishes made Weather]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS06hrs run has edged slightly further north compared to the 00hrs run.

 

And whacks the 130kph swathe right through from the south coast to Lincs and through London and Anglia

[Jayne aka Pembsgal]

It's feeling eerily calm here on the coast in Pembrokeshire here today.... looking up the garden earlier it seemed spring-like.  I said to my husband, this really does seem like that old saying 'the calm before the storm'.  Scary times ahead.  Stay safe everyone, batten down those hatches!

[matty40s]

Now I am getting worried , this indication just isnt going away. I think extra ropes are needed!! 

Arrow points to location!!!

 

[Mark Smithy]

The 6z is SAVAGE! Those purple patches are >150 kph i.e. 93 mph

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[AndyC741]

24 minutes ago, Timbo said:

Lets have a friendly competition to were we think the strongest gust will happen tomorrow, ill start with 100mph around North Norfolk  

I live in N.Norfolk, not far from Wells Next The Sea, I experienced 92mph in 2003, and that was a bit blowy. 
I’m wondering just how close to that, we may get.

Being close to 50 now, I remember 1987 well, the wind was like a freight train against our house.

Im hoping we don’t get a repeat of it. 

[CameronWS]

10 minutes ago, sclarke said:

I hate the terms 'downgrades' being thrown around in the context of this storm.  It's not a snow storm and we're not talking snow depths.

The difference between a 75mph sustained gust to an 85mph sustained gust is zilch, severe damage will still occur. You can still get damage way down in the 40-30's MPH winds, so to use the word downgrade in this context is stupid and very misleading.

There's no way away from the fact that big swathes of this country is going to see significant damage and disruption tomorrow, some may report higher wind gusts than others, but in the grand scheme that doesn't change the overall picture of how disruptive this will be for many millions.

I mean…it is a snow storm

[Wingman Blue]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The comments re: "This wont be as bad as 1987" are somewhat unfounded and are underplaying what could potentially be a very disruptive & dangerous storm. 

The damage caused in 1987 was the result of a sting jet, that storm is the reason we know sting jets exist, the phenomena was largely discovered as a result of that storm. It's made more famous by the fact it was largely un-forecasted.

Storm Eunice could bring widespread inland gusts of 70-80mph. 1987 didn't even do that, the strongest gusts were reserved for coastal regions/within the sting jet. Some of the modelling for tomorrow is concerning, for context, the Burns Day storm in 1990 brought the strongest recorded winds on record to the London area of 87mph, some of the more extreme modelling for tomorrow challenge that record. 

I don't necessarily agree with comparing tomorrow with 87 or Burns Day, however I do think some are underplaying this quite a bit.

Severe storms really aren’t that rare. About a dozen years ago 140mph was recorded at Mallaig harbour on the Scottish west coast!

[sclarke]

3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

My intention wasn't to make this storm seem like it's nothing to worry about, sorry if it seemed like t hat.

Wasn't referring to your comments at all, there are several other posts over the last couple of days I've seen who are talking along the lines of ''Typical downgrade''  ''won't be more than a gale''  ''we always miss out'' etc.

I guess there will always be an element of 'in your own back yard' to all weather events, but wind events like this can still cause significant disruption across a much larger area than a snow event for example.

[richie3846]

What I find remarkable, having followed the storm from about Sunday when it was first mentioned by the met (I think), is that firstly, models had picked it up that far back, and secondly, the vast majority of models have basically had the same result every day with the storm aiming for the Bristol channel, with wind speeds which have been more or less the same on each run. It would be a right clanger if all the models were wrong and the storm heads off to France! Seriously though, it's been an unusual series of models for their consistency over that last 5 days. I'm no expert when it comes to weather models though.

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Unfortunately it looks like the worst affected regions will be directly where some of the major river crossings are. Both Severn bridges, the Queen Elizabeth (Dartford) and the Orwell bridge south of Ipswich. I suspect a red warning will be issued for the Severn Estuary and possibly the east coast of East Anglia running from the Thames estuary to north Suffolk, the latter is if the models suggest a southerly component to the winds. The GFS still has 90mph gusts for these locations on the latest run.

I'm driving from North Suffolk to the south side of Thames estuary via QE2 Bridge, tomorrow think I'll rearrange that for tonight not tomorrow late morning as was planned!

[Jayces]

20 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I really don't understand the motivation to desperately find and declare "downgrades"? This is looking like a dangerous event, and if anything it has been underplayed by the media and the Met Office in recent days.

This has not downgraded, and there will be widespread damage tomorrow.

I love this community and thoroughly enjoy the emotional roller coaster that are the winter model thread but that last line is what everyone should be concentrating on at this time. This is looking very likely to be a very dangerous storm for many people. For the rest of us it will be much windier than normal and I think we should all enjoy that aspect of it and be grateful if we don't get the full force becasue as others have rightly said lives are at risk and that applies even to the areas that don't get the full force.

As much as I enjoy the severe weather there is a point where it can be too severe to enjoy and I'm thinking potential100 MPH winds is one of those times.

Hopefully the weekend news for us won't be too sad with lives lost but lets not forget we are just the first landmass this storm is going to hit, after us it will cut a swathe through Europe so will be in the news for a few days at least.

Stay safe everyone.

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

The 6z is SAVAGE! 

Does it look a tad further North? 

[SnowBear]

A lot of posts on windspeed and little difference. There is a fair amount of difference even with 10mph difference as its not a linear correlation. 

Earlier I saw a post referencing 80mph and 85mph.

If we have a 1 metre square section of wall let's see the air pressure or force on that wall at those speeds. 

80mph on our wall at 90° to the wind, 783.4 Newtons(N) 

85mph = 884.4N

If we check 70 and 100mph we get... 

70 = 599.8N

100 = 1224N

At 100mph its over a ton pressure per square metre. 

Note a doubling in windspeed over doubles wind pressure. 

Now, being as this is also coming in gusts, its more like someone hitting something with a hammer, rather than just a gradual increase to that pressure, so can be more damaging. 

This is why although we see a Cat 4 hurricane speed of say 145mph as pretty damaging, a Cat 5 at say 165mph is far far more damaging even though the increase in windspeed is only 20mph. (145mph = 2,575.6N/165mph = 3,332.5N)

[Mark Smithy]

Just now, richie3846 said:

What I find remarkable, having followed the storm from about Sunday when it was first mentioned by the met (I think), is that firstly, models had picked it up that far back, and secondly, the vast majority of models have basically had the same result every day with the storm aiming for the Bristol channel, with wind speeds which have been more or less the same on each run. It would be a right clanger if all the models were wrong and the storm heads off to France! Seriously though, it's been an unusual series of models for their consistency over that last 5 days. I'm no expert when it comes to weather models though.

Yes assuming it verifies it will have been a triumph of medium range storm forecasting.

What a HUGE way we have come since 1987.