Storm Eunice - 18th February

[North Easterly Breeze]

5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Final update of the animations this evening. The strong winds on the southern flank are already quite clear, even if the storm doesn't have a particularly distinct form overall.

Can't upload the separate animation for some reason (probably my terrible internet connection), so hopefully the tweet is ok.

Great animation. As the low forms, there’s a distinct southerly move it seems. Not sure if anyone else agrees? 

[johnholmes]

Last post before bed,

below is the UK 2200 computer chart showing the large pressure falls in sw Eire; not very good plots on the larger chart over the Atlantic but the centre, so far, has not begun to turn to the left of its track as it will do.

pressure falls > 13 mb per 3 hr= approx 4.3 per hour; this indicates that low centre is deepening quite rapidly so will shortly begin turning to the left of its track.

Be interesting when I surface around 0700 just where it is and how deep. One can only hope that no one gets killed by this weather system.

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

Edited February 17, 2022 by johnholmes

[TwisterGirl81]

Wind in picking up here in Devon already

[StingJet]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Last post before bed,

below is the UK 2200 computer chart showing the large pressure falls in sw Eire; not very good plots on the lager chart over the Atlantic but the centre, so far, has not begun to turn to the left of its track as it will do.

pressure falls > 13 mb per 3 hr= approx 4.3 per hour. this indicates that low centre is deepening quite rapidly so will shortly begin turning to the left of its track.

Be interesting when I surface around 0700 just where it is and how deep. One can only hope that no one gets killed by this weather system.

Weather Stations Analysis

METEOCENTRE.COM

 

Thanks John , sleep well ....  just read an old post of yours regarding Hurricane Charley - August 1986 ,, that brought back memories

[stripeyfox]

On 17/02/2022 at 23:01, TwisterGirl81 said:

Wind in picking up here in Devon already

right, I'm signing off for the night. Hope you get some sleep. Let's see what the morning brings

 

Stay safe

 

[emmett garland]

the rain is pouring and I can hear the 1st gust

[Man With Beard]

Does anyone know if the Met Office have acknowledged the possibility of a sting jet? Or do they think AROME and ARPEGE have lost the plot?

I find it hard to believe they have, they are my two go-to short term models.

Because if they are right tonight, at just T18, this is major.

In 1987, my local station reached 96mph, and we were hit really, really bad.

90mph plus tomorrow is going to be a big problem wherever it hits, if it happens.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, StingJet said:

Thanks John , sleep well ....  just read an old post of yours regarding Hurricane Charley - August 1986 ,, that brought back memories

Yes, did my garden no good at all!

Treaddur Bay at the time.

 

 

[Snowy L]

Eunice has arrived in the SW of UK and Ireland.

[sheikhy]

Arpege and particularly arome put the sting jet right on top of me tomorrow!got a run at 9am as well!worrying times!!

[Boro_andy]

Long time lurker of not much knowledge but seeing posts about a “stringing jet” could be a potential for my area, Peterborough.

What is this and I’m assuming it’s not good news with some of the images posted above. What should one expect from this?

[Met4Cast]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Does anyone know if the Met Office have acknowledged the possibility of a sting jet? Or do they think AROME and ARPEGE have lost the plot?

I find it hard to believe they have, they are my two go-to short term models.

Because if they are right tonight, at just T18, this is major.

In 1987, my local station reached 96mph, and we were hit really, really bad.

90mph plus tomorrow is going to be a big problem wherever it hits, if it happens.

They're unlikely to have acknowledged the risk publicly, at least not in an official sense, but a couple of mets have tweeted about it. The lack of an expanded red warning is a little bizarre, the Amber warning is a high impact warning, but only difference is slightly lower confidence, but the difference between amber & red in the public eyes is huge. And the matrix isn't communicated on TV or even official Met Office channels.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Boro_andy said:

Long time lurker of not much knowledge but seeing posts about a “stringing jet” could be a potential for my area, Peterborough.

What is this and I’m assuming it’s not good news with some of the images posted above. What should one expect from this?

Sting Jet - enhanced localised winds as higher winds above make it down to the surface. Could be looking at 90 - 100 mph gusts if it occurs. 

[Boro_andy]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Sting Jet - enhanced localised winds as higher winds above make it down to the surface. Could be looking at 90 - 100 mph gusts if it occurs. 

Thank you sir.

Sounds troublesome to say the least

[aggy]

Hope everyone in the south stays safe . Storms are pretty normal here our trees and structures are well used to high winds unlike the south . Really hoping it’s not as bad as forecast for you all . Scary times. . 

[meshellby]

Just started raining v heavily here in East Dorset, more than expected.

[MKN]

15 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Final update of the animations this evening. The strong winds on the southern flank are already quite clear, even if the storm doesn't have a particularly distinct form overall.

Can't upload the separate animation for some reason (probably my terrible internet connection), so hopefully the tweet is ok.

It wont appear that distinct alot of the strength of the storm is because of the strong jet stream.

[Loulucas]

20 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

There is not a breath of wind here at the mo; just a few miles from the Severn Estuary.

Here in Wiltshire it is eerily quiet. Not a leaf moving. Unnatural quiet. 

[GSP]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Does anyone know if the Met Office have acknowledged the possibility of a sting jet? Or do they think AROME and ARPEGE have lost the plot?

I find it hard to believe they have, they are my two go-to short term models.

Because if they are right tonight, at just T18, this is major.

In 1987, my local station reached 96mph, and we were hit really, really bad.

90mph plus tomorrow is going to be a big problem wherever it hits, if it happens.

You can have all the technology you like, the models are screaming extreme conditions are coming to a large swathe of Southern Britain, but the human element the communication to the public could be the failure. We should be red, the Southern Half of Britain at least should not be venturing out tomorrow.

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Boro_andy said:

Long time lurker of not much knowledge but seeing posts about a “stringing jet” could be a potential for my area, Peterborough.

What is this and I’m assuming it’s not good news with some of the images posted above. What should one expect from this?

A quarter of your local trees down, perhaps a trampoline in your garden, damage to tiles, fences down, roads blocked, the odd roof missing in your neighborhood, power cut...

[kev238]

The Met Office seem to have this crazy idea that the British public are familiar with their risk matrix. In reality the public consider :

red- serious 

amber - mildly irritating

yellow- barely worth worrying over 

 

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Honey said:

I’m seeing a lot of FB posts ‘oh it’s ok - we are just Amber not red we are protected’

Protected, how does amber protect anyone if they don't listen to the severe weather advice.

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Does anyone know if the Met Office have acknowledged the possibility of a sting jet? Or do they think AROME and ARPEGE have lost the plot?

I find it hard to believe they have, they are my two go-to short term models.

Because if they are right tonight, at just T18, this is major.

In 1987, my local station reached 96mph, and we were hit really, really bad.

90mph plus tomorrow is going to be a big problem wherever it hits, if it happens.

Given a tell tale hook has formed, a classic signature of a STJ, it would set alarm bells ringing, though 12 hours is a long time and the shape and morphology of the low may change in that time. Such a narrow zone the STJ, reliant on a narrow cold conveyor belt wrapping around the SW flank of the low bringing very dry air but also strong winds from high up down to the surface so can be difficult to forecast.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Nick F

[suffolkboy_]

1 minute ago, Boro_andy said:

Thank you sir.

Sounds troublesome to say the least

I witnessed a sting jet as part of the St Jude storm in 2018. The winds were very violent for about 15 minutes and caused extensive damage in a very short amount of time (although over a narrow path). One of the most extreme weather events we can witness in this country, but they're pretty rare, with only a handful of occurrences confirmed over the past 30 odd years.

[Andrew Hurcomb]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

They're unlikely to have acknowledged the risk publicly, at least not in an official sense, but a couple of mets have tweeted about it. The lack of an expanded red warning is a little bizarre, the Amber warning is a high impact warning, but only difference is slightly lower confidence, but the difference between amber & red in the public eyes is huge. And the matrix isn't communicated on TV or even official Met Office channels.

Didn't they have a Cobra meeting today about this storm? It makes perfect sense that people in power didn't want people in London to take a day off because of the weather as it would hit profits, business etc. Hold out as long as possible and hope it doesn;t warrent a Red Warning for South and East.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mapantz
Removed unnecessary comment