North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[Dark Horse]

22 minutes ago, severe snowstorm said:

The maximum forecast daytime temperatures for the end of the week are continuing to creep down for here on the metoffice automated output, now showing a max temp of 1C on Friday, will be very close to an ice day. I'm just looking forward to some decent frosty mornings in the first instance. There is potential for some really sharp frosts come the end of the week.

That's usually a sign of a proper cold spell - the cold actually upgrades a little each run, this is what we're seeing. And I wouldn't worry too much about it being bone dry either, there's defintely going to be instability and the models are very poor at grasping these developments sometimes even on the day itself. Of course we could end up snow free, can happen and can't be totally ruled out but I would be very surprised if even near the coast doesn't get some of the white stuff over the next 10 days. This cold spell couldn't have come at a better time, getting close to the solstice, takes longer to warm up in the morning and gets colder quicker in the evening. It's going to be proper Christamassy feeling. Late November to late January best time for proper Winter weather to occur. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

 Late November to late January best time for proper Winter weather to occur. 

Yep February cold does not feel the same as early/mid winter cold. The same is true with August and heat. Yes it can get hot in August but it just doesn't have the same feel with the longer shadows and earlier sunsets. I find late June and July heat unbearable with the strong sun.

Edited December 5, 2022 by CreweCold

[severe snowstorm]

16 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

That's usually a sign of a proper cold spell - the cold actually upgrades a little each run, this is what we're seeing. And I wouldn't worry too much about it being bone dry either, there's defintely going to be instability and the models are very poor at grasping these developments sometimes even on the day itself. Of course we could end up snow free, can happen and can't be totally ruled out but I would be very surprised if even near the coast doesn't get some of the white stuff over the next 10 days. This cold spell couldn't have come at a better time, getting close to the solstice, takes longer to warm up in the morning and gets colder quicker in the evening. It's going to be proper Christamassy feeling. Late November to late January best time for proper Winter weather to occur. 

Yes, timing couldn't be more perfect for this cold spell. I'm not that bothered about the lack of ppn showing up as past events have shown that features can crop up at very short notice anyway. It's just nice to have some proper cold weather in December. It would be nice if it could hang around until Christmas Day, although the Atlantic will no doubt have barrelled through by then.

[SnowThunder]

Even with the heating it's starting to feel chilly, shame it couldn't have come last year instead when things weren't in such a crisis

[Scuba steve]

What’s the light bulb thingy ?

[Spah1]

Evening everyone. Hope everyone had a good summer. 
So the first glimpse to the sky this Winter is Thursday! Looking forward to a good bit of lamppost watching in the next 3 months

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Still nothing at all on the Met Office forecast on that possible feature Thursday morning. You would have thought it would have picked up on it by now if it was likely.

Not happening METO not on board. 
 

[weatherobsuk]

Mind you, the MetO failed to foresee the Polar Low back in 2008/2009? which the models had picked-up on days in advance and it wasn't until the majority of central England grinded to a halt that they acknowledged it with a feeble 'yellow' warning, I remember waiting to catch the bus home that day from Dove Holes and what normally takes 10 minutes took nearly a hour mostly because joe-public was unaware of what was heading down from the North despite many of us on here confusing asking why no warnings were in place. 

The MetO also have strikes planned but whether or not that should have any impact on current forecasts is up for debate.

Edited December 5, 2022 by SNOW_JOKE

[severe snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Not happening METO not on board. 
 

Probably increases the chances lol! 

[Joe Snow]

Yeah BBC/ Met Office not on board for Thurs ( the BBC even going to the trouble of putting up a map of the UK snow chances reserved to Scotland and the far North of England for the rest of this week on the News at 6 )  still worth watching though to see whether they get on board by Wednesday as similar hit and miss, short notice small features will develop as long as we keep the cold. If you go back and watch forecasts from recent cold spells you'll see they were mainly dry. 

 

My humble bet would be a cold - very cold week period, a slight pre Xmas relaxation of the cold not without snow chances followed by a reload late Dec into the New Year.  

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not worried about PPN charts, I actually do find the GFS is probably best at picking up features whereas the UKMO is usually more clean in its set ups, whether that's down to the model I don't know? 

What I will say though, Thursdays potential front aside, I hope it is bone dry because as soon as those winds veer NW'ly then that's it, snow chances greatly reduce as we pick up slightly less cold air - 6 uppers with above average sea temperatures for our region especially are just not cold enough for snow except for higher ground. We really needed a proper - 10hpa Northerly to reduce the affects of the air mixing out but the initial northerly in terms of how far south the - 8hpa gets is getting more and more diluted with every run(even the GFS is picking up a pocket of - 4hpa in the North East for example! 

I have to remind meself this is December and not November. Comparisons to 1981 in that model thread are just laughable. 

 

[Maz]

40 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Evening everyone. Hope everyone had a good summer. 
So the first glimpse to the sky this Winter is Thursday! Looking forward to a good bit of lamppost watching in the next 3 months

Cold uppers & light wind can easily give surface cold (a little inland if a light onshore wind).  With relatively warm seas, precipitation could easily pop up, snow just inland.  Add to troughs (Thursday morning?), an outside chance of polar low type development and battleground front risk, and I wouldn’t write off the upcoming spell as dry yet.  Unless you are trying reverse psychology…

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Evening everyone. Hope everyone had a good summer. 
So the first glimpse to the sky this Winter is Thursday! Looking forward to a good bit of lamppost watching in the next 3 months

Evening Spah. 

Welcome to winter. 

[Mucka]

Not sure why people look tot he MetO for their forecasts, they are are wrong far more often than right for my area of S Manchester.

They say snow, it rains.

They say rain, it snows.

They say dry, there is Ppn.

And their forecasts are almost always out of date with latest data , so if something changes you are reading forecasts based upon old data.

This is very noticeable in the 3-5 day and longer range forecasts as well as with marginal situations.

Edited December 5, 2022 by Mucka

[captaincroc]

2 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

That's usually a sign of a proper cold spell - the cold actually upgrades a little each run, this is what we're seeing. And I wouldn't worry too much about it being bone dry either, there's defintely going to be instability and the models are very poor at grasping these developments sometimes even on the day itself. Of course we could end up snow free, can happen and can't be totally ruled out but I would be very surprised if even near the coast doesn't get some of the white stuff over the next 10 days. This cold spell couldn't have come at a better time, getting close to the solstice, takes longer to warm up in the morning and gets colder quicker in the evening. It's going to be proper Christamassy feeling. Late November to late January best time for proper Winter weather to occur. 

I had come on to say the same. Yes, it could be bone dry BUT jeez, there are many days ahead of unstable artic air...anything is possible. Either way I am happy, I am just buzzing to have proper festive weather for once. So even if it's just very cold and frosty then I'm happy, anything else is a bonus!

[Thunder Snow]

I'm still hoping for snow Wed night into Thurs 

[WillinGlossop]

Woohoo we have heating on here… including heated floors… feels toasty compared to reverse aircon (which to be fair is pretty efficient) 

Air b&b peeps were renting off, lovely peeps, came and set the heating… plus gas tank replaced… might be 15-17c before max of 5/6c again Saturday (&-2/-4c min over weekend)… off to Bordeaux Sunday to Wednesday (warmer)… 

looking decidedly colder at home… seen some forecasts of ice days (without snow)… get the cold in… the rest will follow ️️️ at least it’ll feel seasonal 

[pip22]

I am really looking forward to actual cold weather. Not the less cold of most of last couple of years/decade. We usaully have like 1 Ice day per Winter. The one that is coming is like 4 potential ice days maybe bit more?

Its been a long time since I've last seen frost on the ground lasting through the daylight hours. Hopefully we will see it later this week.

Edited December 5, 2022 by pip22

[Lukemcd]

1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

I'm not worried about PPN charts, I actually do find the GFS is probably best at picking up features whereas the UKMO is usually more clean in its set ups, whether that's down to the model I don't know? 

What I will say though, Thursdays potential front aside, I hope it is bone dry because as soon as those winds veer NW'ly then that's it, snow chances greatly reduce as we pick up slightly less cold air - 6 uppers with above average sea temperatures for our region especially are just not cold enough for snow except for higher ground. We really needed a proper - 10hpa Northerly to reduce the affects of the air mixing out but the initial northerly in terms of how far south the - 8hpa gets is getting more and more diluted with every run(even the GFS is picking up a pocket of - 4hpa in the North East for example! 

I have to remind meself this is December and not November. Comparisons to 1981 in that model thread are just laughable. 

 

Actually, from what I have been reading on here I thought the upper temps are supposed to be getting colder the closer we get to the event? By recent standards this is supposed to be quite a potent spell, so snow is certainly possible IMO even with global warming I thought you were just referral to the initial frontal frontal passage on Thursday after that isn't it supposed to be cold enough for it to snow everywhere even at sea level? (Precipitation permitting of course)

[Lukemcd]

Further to my above post can't see marginality coming into it after Friday especially with near ice days forcast

[Maz]

1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:

I'm still hoping for snow Wed night into Thurs 

On the “mad” model thread, Carinthian, one of the more sane contributors, gives technical detail behind the possibility of snow Thursday morning in NW England.

Vague low forming, veering winds from N to W for a short time. Irish Sea moisture rides over surface cold from Wednesday night and bingo….

Well that’s the hope.  I’ve not got the technical knowledge to be a trusted forecaster.  But do know that in my bit of SE Lancs that scenario often gives snowfall, and surprise falls at that.  Even shallow thunder cumulo nimbus if really, really lucky!

It can also give incessant rain and low cloud when as more common the same happens at the more usual temperatures.  Looks cold enough from Wednesday night onwards away from the coast though.

@MattH Any thoughts?  You have far more technical knowledge and the same conditions certainly deliver for you a bit further up the hills than myself.  
 

Edited December 5, 2022 by Maz

[Thunder Snow]

18z for the weekend and early next week this is what dream are made of

[Geordiesnow]

3 hours ago, Lukemcd said:

Actually, from what I have been reading on here I thought the upper temps are supposed to be getting colder the closer we get to the event? By recent standards this is supposed to be quite a potent spell, so snow is certainly possible IMO even with global warming I thought you were just referral to the initial frontal frontal passage on Thursday after that isn't it supposed to be cold enough for it to snow everywhere even at sea level? (Precipitation permitting of course)

The cold is starting getting mixed out unfortunately as we are getting nearer the time with the - 8hpa for example barely making its presence felt across our region nevermind further south. 

Must say though the 18Z was a surprise mind in terms of a potential easterly and winds seemingly remaining off shore but if we see a NW'ly instead then uppers of - 6 won't be cold enough for most low levels. 

Thursdays front is interesting, if there is a kink in the isobars which is kinda what the GFS is showing it can enhance the PPN, the colder air is struggling to undercut it mind but timing could be favourable(e.g seemingly looks like its going to hit overnight into the morning). If the GFS is wrong then the front may still be there but will weaken as it heads southwards, will be interesting one to watch, one I can easily seeing the forecasts being wrong on. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Geordiesnow

[Iceaxecrampon]

18z Upgrade

00z Downgrade
 

 

[Weather-history]

-1.8°C

Moon is brilliant to the NW

Still nothing on Met Office forecast over possible feature early Thursday, infact it has disappeared off the GFS 0z run.