North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[Geordiesnow]

As I said you can look at any charts and graphs all we like but it's the radar which is what counts at the end of the day, it did feel a little hard to believe you can have kinks in the isobars but nothing showing up for it. Kinks usually mean more instability and I assume its the much talked about cold front. If the isobars were stright it would of went down north to south and likely to weaken as it does so. 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Met office has snow showers in my location for Thursday definitely an upgrade 

Yes as said would be happier if we were 24 hours forward, but interesting to note the feature is being picked up at this range, every chance of upgrades, as well as downgrades - but you would expect some instability in the flow and some showery activity at least. 

[Weather-history]

0.4°C

 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

0.4°C

 

3C here lol.

[Scuba steve]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes as said would be happier if we were 24 hours forward, but interesting to note the feature is being picked up at this range, every chance of upgrades, as well as downgrades - but you would expect some instability in the flow and some showery activity at least. 

Very true Damian I’ll be watching for some little kinks in those isobars

[Weather-history]

Ukmo 12z brings an area of precipitation across the south at midnight Friday morning

[Weather-history]

Mentions Thursday feature

Edited December 6, 2022 by Weather-history

[Dark Horse]

Nothing really changing much with the models, certainly not for the worse and as weather history points out above we have another small feature on Friday which has cropped up, like I said the yesterday this happens when you have cold air in place, features can pop up almost out of the blue. I'm so happy with how this Winter is going to start but I'm not kidding myself in that there will be no mild weather until spring, we're not in a day after tomorrow scenario as much as I'd like it! Even in December 2010 we did have about 5-7 days of relatively milder weather sandwiched in between the snow and cold. And we did have similar brief spells in the 2009-2010 Winter. That's the nature of living here in this country with the Atlantic to our west being such a driver of our weather. Although it does seem rather dead the last 12-18 months or so. If this carries on maybe it bodes well for colder Winters but also hotter Summers? the latter not to my liking though. It's certainly been a crazy year weatherwise!

[iand61]

Netweather and Met O forecasts both have me down for snow on Thursday afternoon and early evening as the small feature passes through so now it’s a question of either will it still be showing tomorrow and will it actually get this far eastwards or keep out west and run south over wales and the West Midlands

one thing looks pretty certain though; the next week or so is looking like the most significant cold spell since the Feb and March 2018 BFTE.

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by iand61

[Dan B]

High of 4ºC today...

 

Needed to unearth my car as had to do some chores and may need to use it tomorrow; fortunately I've got Goodyear Vector all-season Gen3s fitted and they're superb in the cold  

 

4.4l V8 RWD; had a few slight wheel spins on the patches of road that haven't seen the sun

 

From:

 

 

To:

 

 

And now it's currently 0ºC and the cars starting to freeze over already

Edited December 6, 2022 by Dan B

[Day 10]

43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Mentions Thursday feature

[Dan B]

Interesting to see the forecasts too... Beeb says no snow at all; both TWO and Netweather forecast snow for Thursday & Friday and now even the METO are showing signs of snow...

 

Who's right & who's wrong

[The Northern Ramper]

Fingers crossed for some of the white stuff over the next week or three

The mod thread already gone full imby

[Kasim Awan]

30 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Fingers crossed for some of the white stuff over the next week or three

The mod thread already gone full imby

Best for us northerners to stay here once we reach this point

[iand61]

BBC are still having non of it with Thursdays snow across the region.

are they on to something or just frightened that a forecasted flake or two might stop their Salford Keys staff turning in to work

[Day 10]

32 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Best for us northerners to stay here once we reach this point

Man, the mod thread turns quickly, try living here. Good job it's only weather and I can laugh about it (would be nice to finally see some though ).

Have you seen any updated charts for Thurs mate? Last ones I seen did actually look ok.

[iand61]

Looking at the last few pages, I expect the Met O will soon be issuing an amber warning for low flying toys around the Mod thread pram store.

some unhappy folks in there at the moment.

 

[PennineMark]

Anybody hoping for Thursday lunchtime snow best avoid the Met Office app map forecast. In contrast to their own timeline showing snow shower potential, the automated map has any activity way out west over NW Wales heading south. No idea which is using the latest information . 

[severe snowstorm]

Metoffice showing light snow showers for here on Thursday afternoon and light snow early Saturday morning. A nice little upgrade. Too early to pin any details on yet, but potential is certainly there.

[Mark_p]

On the radar you can see the first snow showers developing for northern Scotland indicating the colder air is on the march. Regardless of snow that cold is going to impact all of us. The poor old mad thread can’t see the forest for the trees sometimes lashing out about what might happen next week. 

[Kasim Awan]

48 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Man, the mod thread turns quickly, try living here. Good job it's only weather and I can laugh about it (would be nice to finally see some though ).

Have you seen any updated charts for Thurs mate? Last ones I seen did actually look ok.

No change since this morning mate still the same probabilities

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, iand61 said:

BBC are still having non of it with Thursdays snow across the region.

are they on to something or just frightened that a forecasted flake or two might stop their Salford Keys staff turning in to work

It's not the 'BBC', it's the ECM model, I think something is likely to develop, where and what intensity and timings are all subject to change. Its not worth pulling hairs out about it, if it happens then it happens, if it doesn't then life goes on! 

Barely been in the model thread since the northerly was nailed, I thought the UKMO was a beaut of a run with a channel low and large areas in the south would get a right good old dumping but all the runs are not all that dissimilar really, it's just the variation and its impacts for the UK that is quite variable on the models. Either way, the cold looks more or less locked in until the 13th before there is indications it could turn milder but that is still a long way off. 

[Kasim Awan]

Latest high res all agree on a Wales trough

Chances of it correcting east are slim

Fri / Sat look interesting with a light WNW flow.

[Kasim Awan]

last time buxton hadnt seen snow this late was 2007 I think. 2019 maybe.

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 hours ago, Scuba steve said:

Met office has snow showers in my location for Thursday definitely an upgrade