North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[iand61]

Other than plenty of very cold nights and potential ice days, there’s little in the forecast of interest for much of the region apart from coastal areas.

it looks like Wishbone Willy will be up to his usual tricks when he meets up with old friend, Mr Northerly and even the weak front heading south on Thursday now looks to be closer to Norway than the UK so it seems like we will be relying on sudden unexpected features for snow, certainly this far inland.

for those in the firing line from a Northerly, good luck and a covering will certainly make things look more seasonal and even here, it’s perfect weather to get wrapped up and be outside but I have a feeling that any widespread snow event that does occur will be quickly followed by a breakdown to milder conditions and a repeat of the Alpine conditions we saw in winter 20-21 doesn’t look likely, at least during this upcoming cold spell.

happy to be proved wrong though.

[Weather-history]

Down to -2.4°C, bit of cloud coming over now

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

-1.8°C

Moon is brilliant to the NW

Still nothing on Met Office forecast over possible feature early Thursday, infact it has disappeared off the GFS 0z run.

 

GFS in no man’s land. 

[iand61]

Ice on the bathroom velux when I got up this morning but it’s gone now and it certainly isn’t heating that’s done the trick so I’m guessing some cloud has moved in.

[Iceaxecrampon]

WARNING CONTAINS FLASHING IMAGE

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Iceaxecrampon

[Weather-history]

25 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

In this day and age, shouldn't you have given a warning that this post contains a flashing image?  

Edited December 6, 2022 by Weather-history

[Geordiesnow]

Yeah by magic it's disappeared without trace, that's ashame, still would not fully rule anything out but the most likely white we are likely too see will be frosty weather which I will take over Atlantic weather any day! 

Clearly it was there for a reason and I do recall when living in the NE once a weak front came in from the west(albeit) and it was forecast to give a little bit of patch rain yet a wave developed and we ended up with couple of hours of heavy snow instead, this was back in February  2012, memorable event. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Geordiesnow

[Iceaxecrampon]

26 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

In this day and age, shouldn't you have given a warning that this post contains a flashing image?  

Duly edited for this day and age. 

[raul_sbd]

Game over for our part of the world @Kasim Awanre snow ?

[Weather-history]

ECM 2m temp Manchester ensembles are cold, the op run looks a bit of a synoptic outlier at the end of its run going off the wind speeds

Edited December 6, 2022 by Weather-history

[jimben]

Overnight low of -0.4c. Snow visible on Sharp Edge. Blencathra summit obscured. Snow also observed on summits of Great Dodd and Clough Head

Edited December 6, 2022 by jimben
Snow update

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, raul_sbd said:

Game over for our part of the world @Kasim Awanre snow ?

The instability thu - fri has decreased so on a lot of output the trough doesnt form. I think this is a phasing error and it will probably form but itll be weak and narrow. So probably a now cast. 

[Alexis]

Considering the number of times I've been soaked going off the BBC's rainfall forecast, I'll get the sledge out.

[A Face like Thunder]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yeah by magic it's disappeared without trace, that's ashame, still would not fully rule anything out but the most likely white we are likely too see will be frosty weather which I will take over Atlantic weather any day! 

Clearly it was there for a reason and I do recall when living in the NE once a weak front came in from the west(albeit) and it was forecast to give a little bit of patch rain yet a wave developed and we ended up with couple of hours of heavy snow instead, this was back in February  2012, memorable event. 

Ditto closer to hand on 5th February 1996 and those of us in the coastal area of the NW, including Blackpool, will never forget what happened next!

A quiet opening to today but noticeable colder than previous mornings and de-icers at work in the road. 

[Kasim Awan]

Phasing errors with troughs are common. So I think there's a decent chance this one will return to modelling. If it does i suspect any issues with marginality will be present around the Mersey bay at low levels before winds veer offshore as the front clears, allowing a transition to snow. If it occurs 1-3cm inland with a dusting in places where it starts as rain. I feel like this trough will happen in some shape or form. 40% chance itll miss us into Wales.

[weatherobsuk]

Just barely above freezing here overnight at 0.2'c and currently at 2.1'c with intermittent fog-patches beginning to move through. On the snow-forecast.com there's a few hints of snow-showers over the next few days, ironically all of them being coastal showers with central areas remaining dry throughout.

[Dan B]

-2ºC overnight with some good frost; currently 0ºC with clear skies and very still

[Iceaxecrampon]

[Day 10]

3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Phasing errors with troughs are common. So I think there's a decent chance this one will return to modelling. If it does i suspect any issues with marginality will be present around the Mersey bay at low levels before winds veer offshore as the front clears, allowing a transition to snow. If it occurs 1-3cm inland with a dusting in places where it starts as rain. I feel like this trough will happen in some shape or form. 40% chance itll miss us into Wales.

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Which model is that mate?

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Which model is that mate?

UKV

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

And this is the possibility from the same model UKV a mainly south of the region event perhaps edging into Manchester.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I thought the Metoffice used the UKV to feed data into their automated forecasts on the website. Very strange if that’s the case as there’s nothing showing up.

[Geordiesnow]

Where does it come from? Looking at the ECM PPN chart it seems to come from the west of Scotland yet I thought if anything developed it will be from due north. 

At least something is popping up again but at the end of the day, it's that live rainfall radar which is what counts. 

[Scuba steve]

Complete frost wipe out this morning very seasonal I’ll be happy with a week off this