North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards

[russwirral]

15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

And this is the possibility from the same model UKV a mainly south of the region event perhaps edging into Manchester.

These are two different runs, one is 03z aand the other 09z

 

The 09 seems to be an upgrade for North west England and West midlands

[Scuba steve]

Guess we are relying on some trough feature developing otherwise sunny all the way on morecambe bay  

[cheshire snow]

15 minutes ago, russwirral said:

These are two different runs, one is 03z aand the other 09z

 

The 09 seems to be an upgrade for North west England and West midlands

My bad

 

Thanks 

[Day 10]

Latest ICON is an upgrade, even here has it as snow!

[Thunder Snow]

Not holding our much hope for Cumbria now tomorrow nights snow has disappeared 

 

 

[Rush2019]

METO warnings for ice Thursday affecting a bit of the region, alas no mention of snow...............

[itsnowjoke]

Why have we an insightful button ?

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Not holding our much hope for Cumbria now tomorrow nights snow has disappeared 

 

 

Will be a nowcast, the feature that is showing up could be further north - anyone have thoughts on this? The cold front moving down - I'm not sure what has happened to that. There would be no marginality away from the coast... 

Back to today, a better one than yesterday, its stayed dry so far, a milky winter sky some cloud about but also blue skies and sunshine. Colder than yesterday but still managed to nidge up close to 6 degrees after a frosty start. Its from tomorrow we really start to see the cold air invade, probably won't go above 5 degrees, after a colder night, frost will likely stick in the shade. Thereafter the cold will intensify and embed itself, if we don't get snow, I'll settle for thick hoar frost covering everything - it can look like a dusting of snow... but yes some snow would be a bonus, the fells are largely clear of it, and a cold spell doesn't have the same impact without snow!

[Kasim Awan]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

UKV

Only me and the ukv can deal with this one

Feeling confident now that a period of light to moderate snow will push SSE over the region on Thursday afternoon. Still need more support but I can say from experience that in these setups if it's modelled, it will happen.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[russwirral]

10 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

METO warnings for ice Thursday affecting a bit of the region, alas no mention of snow...............

I suspect the Met have issued that to cover the option the risk could re-emerge.  Their forecasts have been mainly dry, but by the looks a couple of hi res models have started to put some more meat on the bones for Thursday now

 

MWIS for snowdonia mention it would be a very narrow band of snow on Thursday, so im not expecting anything major.

Edited December 6, 2022 by russwirral

[severe snowstorm]

It didn't quite reach freezing here last night, got down to 0.5C. The car was properly iced up though. Another cold day, max of 5.3C. Quite a bit of cloud around at the moment. Hopefully this can clear to allow an air frost tonight.

[Kasim Awan]

Maxed out at 2.7c today.

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

METO warnings for ice Thursday affecting a bit of the region, alas no mention of snow...............

Bit of a confusing picture as the UKV shows that little feature which the Met use.

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Only me and the ukv can deal with this one

Feeling confident now that a period of light to moderate snow will push SSE over the region on Thursday afternoon. Still need more support but I can say from experience that in these setups if it's modelled, it will happen.

Thanks for drawing my awareness to the ukv, a model I've not looked at before. I've just looked at it, and it shows a feature moving down the west side of Scotland and enters Cumbria and the rest of the region on Thursday. Do you think Cumbria will see some snow from it, if it does take this track. Other models show something from N Ireland, but I'm quite confused as the wind direction would to be suggest it must come from the north not the NW. 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Bit of a confusing picture as the UKV shows that little feature which the Met use.

I suspect the met are behind the curve on this one. We won't know the track of any such feature, and how much precipitation is associated with it, until near timescales, nor the speed in which is moves. Its these kind of features that oiften pop up out of nowhere and result in surprise snowfalls, not forecast. Lost count of number of surprise snowfalls I've experienced whilst the forecasts say no precipitation - happens in summer as well. Most memorable one I remember was on Christmas Day 2010, not one forecast called for snow here, yet a feature popped up and tracked through SW Scotland and delivered an hour and half snowfall - inch mid-late morning.

Edited December 6, 2022 by damianslaw

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect the met are behind the curve on this one. We won't know the track of any such feature, and how much precipitation is associated with it, until near timescales, nor the speed in which is moves. Its these kind of features that oiften pop up out of nowhere and result in surprise snowfalls, not forecast. Lost count of number of surprise snowfalls I've experienced whilst the forecasts say no precipitation - happens in summer as well. 

Yes agree, the track has actually changed again from the last UKV I posted. The ICON has it further west, see what the other shorter range models do with it later. Nightmare to forecast.

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I suspect the met are behind the curve on this one. We won't know the track of any such feature, and how much precipitation is associated with it, until near timescales, nor the speed in which is moves. Its these kind of features that oiften pop up out of nowhere and result in surprise snowfalls, not forecast. Lost count of number of surprise snowfalls I've experienced whilst the forecasts say no precipitation - happens in summer as well. Most memorable one I remember was on Christmas Day 2010, not one forecast called for snow here, yet a feature popped up and tracked through SW Scotland and delivered an hour and half snowfall - inch mid-late morning.

Bang on. More of them happen than are modelled, so if theres indication of it happening theres a pretty decent chance. Not saying 100% as you know, but the factors are there.

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Yes agree, the track has actually changed again from the last UKV I posted. The ICON has it further west, see what the other shorter range models do with it later. Nightmare to forecast.

Moved east which means ukv has deepened the trough even more - opens up scope for coastal marginality & heavier accumulations inland. I recon we'll see it on gfs 18z!!!

Edited December 6, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Bang on. More of them happen than are modelled, so if theres indication of it happening theres a pretty decent chance. Not saying 100% as you know, but the factors are there.

Perhaps the warm SST's over the Irish Sea might do the region a favour, add a bit more convection and instability into the mix and allow for homegrown wintry precipitation to develop in situ. Its happened many a time in these set ups.

[Scuba steve]

22 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Why have we an insightful button ?

So that’s what it is ,lol

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Moved east which means ukv has deepened the trough even more - opens up scope for coastal marginality & heavier accumulations inland. I recon we'll see it on gfs 18z!!!

I'd be happeier if the chart above was showing this time tomorrow, as they is alot of time for things still to change!

[Day 10]

Going to be a look out the window and see basically.

Harmonie has it further west.

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

UKV

What about the BOM? 

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Going to be a look out the window and see basically.

Harmonie has it further west.

For those in the region who want snow, we want the UKV to verify - a feature further east would mean whole region ar risk. Good to see Met Office forecast picking up on this with light snow showing for Thursday. Will be a case of waking up on Thursday and seeing where the precipitation is on the rain radar. 

[Scuba steve]

Met office has snow showers in my location for Thursday definitely an upgrade