Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[MattStoke]

Better push of heat on the GFS 6z Looks to hold on longer too into Saturday.

Edited June 12, 2022 by MattStoke

[Captain Shortwave]

Friday looks good on the GFS

Teasing an interaction between the cut off low and the Atlantic trough.

[sheikhy]

Upgrade alert for friday on the 06z!!!

[Polar Maritime]

Hopefully this trend continues as we could see some humdingers..

[StormChaseUK]

A 10c drop in temp between 6am to 9am Saturday in some places - this to me suggests some quite severe thunderstorms occuring during Friday night or early Saturday morning. 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by StormChaseUK

[Mike Poole]

+23C line into the SE at T138 on the GFS 6z, so the hotter evolution still very much in play.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

A 10c drop in temp between 6am to 9am Saturday in some places - this to me suggests some quite severe thunderstorms occuring during Friday might or early Saturday morning. 

 

 

Fingers crossed it's for somerset

[StormChaseUK]

HP starting to come back in Sunday.   I think the concern that a Northerly low would spoil things has turned into a thunderstorm event lowering temps on the Saturday and warming up again.  

[sheikhy]

Thats more like it from gfs 06z!not only do we get an upgrade of heat but we also miss out on the washout that the ecm gives us!!love it!!

[Mike Poole]

26 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Hopefully this trend continues as we could see some humdingers..

Yes, interesting this as you say, because when this hot spell first appeared on the models, there was little hint of any thundery breakdown.  Now, it looks like that is very much in the mix for some parts of the country.

[northwestsnow]

I'd take 6z in a heartbeat - 

Problem is its a toss up whether I trust 6z or Boris Johnson more ...

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ensembles have tended reduce the number of cooler members for the end of the week, we also now have a cluster of solutions that are hot across a sizeable proportion of the country on Saturday. 
Ensemble member 8 is worthy of an eyebrow raise.

 

 

A proper pressure cooker day this one. This cluster is small though, but it does feel that we have made a positive step this morning.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[summer blizzard]

Euro certainly looks for the more interesting breakdown. 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z covering the late June period, sure there’s some vile stuff in there, no disputing that….but that doesn’t preclude settled and warmer weather?…perhaps even another plume?….watch this space……………….. ️  

Edited June 12, 2022 by jon snow

[The Tall Weatherman]

I think we should all give praise to the GFS that predicted the now imminent plume ! I took this pic last Monday !

[minus10]

35 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I think we should all give praise to the GFS that predicted the now imminent plume ! I took this pic last Monday !

Steady.....well maybe a little...the gfes 6z show that a fair amount of ens peaking above 20 degree 850...so it could be a short but pretty sharp hot spell in the south....

Also the spread being near 20 degrees 850 shows some uncertainty going forward...depends on the jnterplay between the trough to the east and the azores high to the west i think..

Edited June 12, 2022 by minus10

[Don]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the longer term GEFS 6z covering the late June period, sure there’s some vile stuff in there, no disputing that….but that doesn’t preclude settled and warmer weather?…perhaps even another plume?….watch this space……………….. ️  

Well, I hope not but it wouldn't surprise me as it happened during the summers of 2019 and 2020 when second plume events followed a few weeks after the first ones, so perhaps a trend?! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst not as high as some other output, the ICON now goes hot for Friday. A 32c in the south east at least.

   

Edited June 12, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Whilst not as high as some other output, the ICON now goes hot for Friday. A 32c in the south east at least.

   

That’s much higher than anything it’s produced so far

[MattStoke]

15 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Whilst not as high as some other output, the ICON now goes hot for Friday. A 32c in the south east at least.

   

Similar surface value to other models despite other models showing higher uppers. Bit odd unless it has a different surface flow.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Looks like a better GFS 12z already. Better jet profile, means pattern is a little more amplified and the low S of Iceland struggles to link up with the Iberian low. Hopefully get a slightly warmer & more prolonged southerly flow here.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Things looking a lot better here on the gfs,by 168 the Azores high seems to be moving back in!for the following week the trough to the northwest not so much of a dominant player

[clark3r]

Gfs now goes got Saturday as the hottest day 34/35 30 - 32 Friday 

[sheikhy]

No news on ukmo?!!!

[Tamara]

Boa tarde para todos e todos

Very hot down here since Friday with mid 20s through the first half of last week,heating up to mid/upper 30'sC this weekend by day. Overnight mins between 20 to 22C shortly before dawn.. The extra strength of the sun at this latitude is particularly powerful and requires respect. .Living in these conditions while they last is quite different to any holiday! Less than 100km to the west around the Portugal/Spain border, truly scorching heat is evident with values up to 43C. In this kind of scenario, breezes from the exposed Atlantic coast extend just far enough to here to prevent those values - and after about 4pm the highest values tend to start dropping back a little as the breeze kicks in.

The cue for the end of the heat heading into midweek down here is the cue for the heat plume at the same time to head northwards through France towards the UK as well as eastwards into central Europe. With a defined thermal boundary setting up between the heat ridge over mainland Europe and a cold front to the NW of the UK coming around the perimeter of a typical early summer Nina-esque Atlantic ridge, it sets up the prospect of quite a distinct boundary of error either side, as it tries to head SE.

There is little likelihood that the Atlantic ridge will decline and help sustain any ridge further east into the medium and longer term with tropical convection now slumbering after an active period. On that basis, angular momentum has no upwards push from a suppressed level

 

This favours sub tropical ridging holding to the west of UK and mainland Europe. So its a matter of time how long the heat ridge can hold into the weekend in NW Europe and more particularly the UK closest to the cold front and the energy coming around the perimeter of the Atlantic ridge.

A cut off low forming along the cold front boundary and sinking south on the eastern flank of the Atlantic ridge is certainly quite possible. The further west such a development might happen implies this scenario slowing down/delaying the cool air advection at least for a day or maybe even two over next weekend itself. Ultimately the numerical modelling looks accurate in sharpening the Atlantic ridge and fully pushing the cooler air south eastwards into the next week, if it does get delayed a little during the weekend - more especially the further south and east one heads..

Down here in my part of Portugal that suggests brisk N winds by day around the resident Azores High - moderating temperatures in the mid to upper 20sC and with pleasant nights in the mid to upper teens. So lovely summer conditions, albeit the drought remains a large issue. Small chance of cut off lows in the Azores region edging towards the Iberian continent may provide a few thundery showers. Such as happened occasionally last summer.

For the UK, clearly less straightforward with upper westerlies across the North Atlantic and more likely changeable conditions and the predictable interplay between the ridge to the west and south west and fronts coming across the top of the high. Based on the nature of the summer easterly profile across the arctic, there is little sign of any substantive or sustaining heights over that region overly suppressing the jet stream - so any temporary rises in momentum should allow the Azores High to ridge a bit further north east from time to time.

Um domingo feliz