Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[stodge]

Evening all

I'm going to disagree with a few of the more recent posters - there's been a significant shift toward the colder outcomes on tonight's 12Z suite compared to last evening's.

GEM is a thing of beauty if you want spring cold at T+168:

JMA is decent and ECM just about gets there. UKM is much slower and may not get there - the profile of the LP to the south is very different from GEM for example. GFS OP has a brief cold interlude but rapidly becomes very unsettled and wet with the jet tracking just to the south of the British Isles.

The main message is this benign spell of fine and warm weather isn't going to last and the next phase of spring is going to be more "interesting" in weather terms.

[LRD]

ECM uppers ensembles with another delay to the sub-zero uppers arriving in London. Now not making it until the 30th according to the mean

The op was a cold outlier from midday on 31st. Not an extravagant one but an outlier nonetheless

Edited March 23, 2022 by LRD

[saintkip]

7 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

I'm going to disagree with a few of the more recent posters - there's been a significant shift toward the colder outcomes on tonight's 12Z suite compared to last evening's.

GEM is a thing of beauty if you want spring cold at T+168:

JMA is decent and ECM just about gets there. UKM is much slower and may not get there - the profile of the LP to the south is very different from GEM for example. GFS OP has a brief cold interlude but rapidly becomes very unsettled and wet with the jet tracking just to the south of the British Isles.

The main message is this benign spell of fine and warm weather isn't going to last and the next phase of spring is going to be more "interesting" in weather terms.

Interesting? As in cold and wet? I’ll stick with the benign

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean is less cold next week compared with the 0z mean, just as the GEFS 6z / 12z mean are progressively less cold than the 0z…the wheels could be coming off next weeks cold outbreak…I could be wrong, this post may even turn out to be foolish by the time we reach……   

[Frosty.]

Forget what I was saying about the mean…ah, you already have! …anyway, the 18z op has had a good drink tonight! …. Cheers!  

 

[Ali1977]

Certainly a cold upgrade this morning from the GFS and ECM for next week, ecm would certainly have some snow for many 

 

Day 8 and much of the U.K. looks like it would see snow showers or a covering and I dare say the coldest night for the U.K. as a whole this year.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Ali1977

[sheikhy]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Certainly a cold upgrade this morning from the GFS and ECM for next week, ecm would certainly have some snow for many 

 

Day 8 and much of the U.K. looks like it would see snow showers or a covering.

And gfs almost a mild outlier for first part of next week/midweek in terms of 850s!!cold could come even quicker!!

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs / Ecm 0z ops, winter arrives next week .. I won’t say winter returns because we had NO winter …the Gfs even indicates a few snow events (I kid you not) and even the GEFS 0z mean has trended colder again out to the beginning of April, as we know, ensembles are very fickle, yesterday could have just been a wobble!…for sure it’s never easy getting cold air into the u k but currently it looks like it will, perhaps slightly delayed but a taste of winter for many….as far as coldies are concerned..better late than never!!  

Edited March 24, 2022 by jon snow

[Scorcher]

I'm not seeing a cold upgrade at all this morning- quite the opposite.

The cold air keeps being pushed back and is still outside the reliable time frame.

No doubt it's turning cooler but Monday is looking reasonably warm for most now and even Tuesday in the south.

[Frosty.]

To my untrained eyes even the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean has trended colder again until and including April 1st, for sure, the cold has been delayed slightly and the coldest air is further NE but it does look as though next week will become relatively much colder than this week..and there could be some surprise snow for some of us which would be frankly astonishing considering the almost summer like temperatures this week..as I’ve said a few times..it’s the classic duality of spring…gardeners and growers also need to be aware of some frosty / icy nights which would be damaging! ️

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The guarantee of cold almost certain for next week, the questions are the exact timing ,how cold, the longevity of cold and how much Wintry precipitation will occur or not.  It does look however that this time next week the northern half of the uk if not more of us will being a significant change, and I would not be surprised that news headlines will report some snow around the country. 

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, jon snow said:

.it’s the classic duality of spring…gardeners and growers also need to be aware of some frosty / icy nights which would be damaging! ️

I think gardeners are wary now anyway because despite the glorious sunshine, nights have still been cold. Had an air frost here this morning and it was -2.5C Monday morning. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Weather-history

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, jon snow said:

To my untrained eyes even the ECMWF 0z ensemble mean has trended colder again until and including April 1st, for sure, the cold has been delayed slightly and the coldest air is further NE but it does look as though next week will become relatively much colder than this week..and there could be some surprise snow for some of us which would be frankly astonishing considering the almost summer like temperatures this week..as I’ve said a few times..it’s the classic duality of spring…gardeners and growers also need to be aware of some frosty / icy nights which would be damaging! ️

 

 

Yes it does look as so it is going to cool down or even turn cold for a while....but as you say JS gardeners beware of the late frosts...as a coldie i am conflicted as it would be nice to see a bit of late snow but i dont want the frosts with the plants and blossom now coming out...as someone said previously similar thing happened this time last year. Must admit really enjoying this warm week though..

As fickle as they are the general picture from the ens seems to be after the cold bit a return to milder/warm and perhaps more unsettled...good gardening weather..?

 

[Methuselah]

I think I'll be able to cope with the upcoming minor setback. Not that it'll necessarily stay minor?

[Scorcher]

Certainly no cold upgrades from the GFS 06Z- a huge downgrade in fact with the cold never really making it to the UK.

[minus10]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Certainly no cold upgrades from the GFS 06Z- a huge downgrade in fact with the cold never really making it to the UK.

Yes the gfs cant decide whether its a low or a high to the nw in 7 days time...which makes all the difference...

[Scorcher]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes the gfs cant decide whether its a low or a high to the nw in 7 days time...which makes all the difference...

Indeed, and the '7 days time' factor is crucial here- there is still nothing cold within the reliable. I'm puzzled by the talk of upgrades- there seems to be more uncertainty than ever now.

[NewEra21]

GFS 06z op very much on the mild side once again during that crucial period. Still plenty of colder options in there, whether they're right or wrong is another matter altogether 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Indeed, and the '7 days time' factor is crucial here- there is still nothing cold within the reliable. I'm puzzled by the talk of upgrades- there seems to be more uncertainty than ever now.

I think there's a large case of seeing what one wants to see. I, too, have never been on board with this so called cold blast. Any sinking of cold air just seems to churn up the Atlantic and it looks like the taps turning on again after a two week respite come the new month. 

Inevitably, it will be turning colder next week of course, as it has been so above average this week.

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think there's a large case of seeing what one wants to see. I, too, have never been on board with this so called cold blast. Any sinking of cold air just seems to churn up the Atlantic and it looks like the taps turning on again after a two week respite come the new month. 

Inevitably, it will be turning colder next week of course, as it has been so above average this week.

Can you count the number of passes?

 

[Frosty.]

Wow just seen the 6z op…I’ve reached the conclusion that it’s just about impossible to get cold air into the u k in either winter or spring…. …as the mafia say…forget about it! …there’s always some spoiler shortwave or whatever…pffffffffffffffft! 

[Frosty.]

My fellow Americans.. ..I mean coldies! …all is not lost, we still have these GEFS 6z perturbbbbbbbatiiiooonnnsssss!  

Edited March 24, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

My fellow Americans.. ..I mean coldies! …all is not lost, we still have these GEFS 6z perturbbbbbbbatiiiooonnnsssss!  

Aye. As the Mafia might say: Ne'er cast your concrete overcoat till May is oot?

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

GFS 06z op very much on the mild side once again during that crucial period. Still plenty of colder options in there, whether they're right or wrong is another matter altogether 

Not an outrageous outlier by any means though, not until the end of the week anyway.

[Frosty.]

I rate the icon highly, especially when it shows cold..Ja das ist gut wetter Ja Ja!    

Edited March 24, 2022 by jon snow