Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[cheshire snow]

GFS 0z in FI two months two late with a GH and a NE flow hopefully this does not get into the reliable into the here and now lovely weekend coming up hopefully it continues but a feeling it won't.

Edited March 18, 2022 by cheshire snow

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS 0z in FI two months two late with a GH and a NE flow hopefully this does not get into the reliable into the here and now lovely weekend coming up hopefully it continues but a feeling it won't.

It's an outlier at the moment - but a general trend to something less settled is starting to show up by the end of March.

Not that I'm worried about that at the moment...potential for 18/19c on Tuesday, and potentially 17-18c on Wed/Thu/Fri with lots of sunshine. Spring well and truly here. Time to forget about 'winter' for another 8-9 months.

Edited March 18, 2022 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

It takes a while, but the Gfs 0z op shows winter finally arriving around April fools day!  

[Mark Smithy]

On 16/03/2022 at 08:42, Ed Stone said:

Well, I've been watching anticyclones build in the 'wrong' place since the 1960s. But, back then, it went 'wrong' within twenty-four hours . . . and not ten days!

Very true!

I merely note that the European models, UKMO and ECM have been way more accurate over the past 6 weeks than the GFS. They have managed to get it right at least 7 days out, and frequently at up to T240 (10 days).

And as this is a model discussion forum that's rather pertinent.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

Very true!

I merely note that the European models, UKMO and ECM have been way more accurate over the past 6 weeks than the GFS. They have managed to get it right at least 7 days out, and frequently at up to T240 (10 days).

And as this is a model discussion forum that's rather pertinent.

Indeed, it is pertinent. Another interesting point is that all models (even the mighty NAVGEM!) have runs of correctness -- randomness does, after all, come in clumps/clusters?

[Mark Smithy]

On 16/03/2022 at 11:37, mushymanrob said:

No model suite gets every run "right" .... so i dont understand your gripe over this instance when a PREDICTIVE chart didnt get the exact position of the high in the exact place it ended up. 

Did I mention having a gripe? I'm sorry you seem to think I do.

This is a model output discussion. Twice in the past six weeks the GFS failed to predict the correct positioning of the high, continually building it over Scandinavia which was inaccurate compared with the European models of the ECM and UKMO which were correct, accurate, right: with the high building more over northern Germany. For the UK that's a huge difference.

If you wish to defend the GFS's performance on this last 6 weeks that's up to you but it's like telling us that an economist who predicts inflation will be 2% when it actually hits 8% hasn't got it wrong, or an opinion pollster who predicts a Labour victory when in fact the Conservatives won was 'right really'. That's the kind of altered 'my' truth of which there's really too much at the moment. The objective, empirical, scientific and non-subjective fact is that the GFS has performed poorly this past six weeks.

I really fail to understand why you are flogging this or repeatedly posting things about it which have no relevance.

GFS got it wrong. Big time. End of discussion. Time you moved on. As am I: off out to do some gardening.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

Did I mention having a gripe? I'm sorry you seem to think I do.

This is a model output discussion. Twice in the past six weeks the GFS failed to predict the correct positioning of the high, continually building it over Scandinavia which was inaccurate compared with the European models of the ECM and UKMO which were correct, accurate, right: with the high building more over northern Germany. For the UK that's a huge difference.

If you wish to defend the GFS's performance on this last 6 weeks that's up to you but it's like telling us that an economist who predicts inflation will be 2% when it actually hits 8% hasn't got it wrong, or an opinion pollster who predicts a Labour victory when in fact the Conservatives won was 'right really'. That's the kind of altered 'my' truth of which there's really too much at the moment. The objective, empirical, scientific and non-subjective fact is that the GFS has performed poorly this past six weeks.

I really fail to understand why you are flogging this or repeatedly posting things about it which have no relevance.

GFS got it wrong. Big time. End of discussion. Time you moved on. As am I: off out to do some gardening.

Heres the current ECM and GFS at t+240 hours...

One of them will be "wrong".... Thats how model watching works. Making a point about the GFS being "wrong" twice in 6 weeks is frankly ridiculous.
 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It's an outlier at the moment - but a general trend to something less settled is starting to show up by the end of March.

Not that I'm worried about that at the moment...potential for 18/19c on Tuesday, and potentially 17-18c on Wed/Thu/Fri with lots of sunshine. Spring well and truly here. Time to forget about 'winter' for another 8-9 months.

Very very common this time of year we go from warmth to cold on 48 hrs the classic spring switcharounds. Would not at all be surprised we flip from warmth to a northerly cold shot as suggested by models.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Very very common this time of year we go from warmth to cold on 48 hrs the classic spring switcharounds. Would not at all be surprised we flip from warmth to a northerly cold shot as suggested by models.

Well, having been 'warned' of impending cold, retrogression, easterly incursions since God knows when, I'll believe when I see it. One mustn't dismiss the ever-present Law of Sod though, must one?

[Frosty.]

What is this, Miami Beach? Not hardly..it’s the GEFS 6z.. ..,April Fools Day!!..  is this some kind of joke?…Nah..  and you know, you can expect hazardous travel conditions later today with that, you know, that, uh, that blizzard thing … yikes. …I think  I’m in Groundhog Day!  

Edited March 18, 2022 by jon snow

[damianslaw]

GFS 12z output reminds of 2012 some extent which brought a lengthy mild dry spell through to March end only for cold cyclonic conditions to take over when April arrived.. hoping for no 2012 re-run thereafter...

Met Office now saying average or slightly below first half April.. signals emerging we will exchange early March warmth for April chilliness.. a common theme it seems in many recent years. April the cruellest month..

Edited March 18, 2022 by damianslaw

[LRD]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

GFS 12z output reminds of 2012 some extent which brought a lengthy mild dry spell through to March end only for cold cyclonic conditions to take over when April arrived.. hoping for no 2012 re-run thereafter...

Met Office now saying average or slightly below first half April.. signals emerging we will exchange early March warmth for April chilliness.. a common theme it seems in many recent years. April the cruellest month..

Hmmm, I can't recall too many cold Aprils these last few years apart from April 2021. Most of April 2020 was like early summer!

[Frosty.]

It’s so sad that nobody can be bothered to post anything considering the latest ECM run suggests plenty of high pressure which will hopefully translate into plenty of strong sunshine and light winds!…what is there to be sad about!?.. ️ 

[saintkip]

50 minutes ago, LRD said:

Hmmm, I can't recall too many cold Aprils these last few years apart from April 2021. Most of April 2020 was like early summer!

Last April was grim, frost every morning, snow a few times. Probably the worst spring I’ve experienced, this year feels a lot different.

[LRD]

Met Office calling cooler into April and the GFS ensembles can see it too

Hope it's wrong but it will do what it will do. After such a nothing winter, with not a single snowflake IMBY, a cold April would be the final insult

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by LRD

[ANYWEATHER]

Late Easter April 2011, 81degrees rest of summer rubbish...April last year felt like Winter, go back to Spring 1989 , extremely mild Winter ,snow in April..anyway the next ten days look dry for most parts ,it's a good job we here had an inch of rain on Wednesday,  Gardens will be gagging for rain in two weeks and beyond!  

[Tim Bland]

Must be unusual to see such a huge area of high pressure covering almost all of Europe

[Allseasons-Si]

This run could be a snorter for the end of the month and into the beginning of April

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

It’s so sad that nobody can be bothered to post anything considering the latest ECM run suggests plenty of high pressure which will hopefully translate into plenty of strong sunshine and light winds!…what is there to be sad about!?.. ️ 

Unfortunately good man there's a lot going on right now that's bringing many sleepless nights. So the weather does at times take a backseat just like it did when covid was running riot.

But you are correct sir,the outlook for the next 10 days looks superb with lots of High Pressure and good sunny spells...Today reached nearly 18c and I have a feeling during the upcoming week we could smash a 20c.  Pretty impressive for March it has to be said.

So good folks of the mod thread please enjoy this if you can and I'm sure we all spare many a thought and prayer for those courageous Ukrainians who are really suffering quite terribly right now.

Have a fab weekend if you can.  

Edit...@Allseasons si...I've firmly put winter to bed now...hopefully next year will be the one mate  

Edited March 18, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

Would have given my right arm for this a month ago

Edited March 19, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment changed to family friendly equivalent.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Would have given my right hand for this a month ago

I would take that now never mind a month ago

from 300 hrs(i know it wont come off)but it gives the Midlands north a right pasting.

then deep in fl further south.

a synoptic dream...

Edited March 19, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box amended.

[Don]

9 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Would have given my right arm for this a month ago

I would take that now!  Ok, would have been better to have seen this a month or two ago, but after the stinker of a winter, April will do!

Edited March 19, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Comment in quote box amended.

[mushymanrob]

Well if this chart is anything like accurate, its looking likely that itll cool down by April as the high pressure establishes to our West, albeit a weak ridge. A cold plunge into northern europe looks likely, but will it affect us?

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well if this chart is anything like accurate, its looking likely that itll cool down by April as the high pressure establishes to our West, albeit a weak ridge. A cold plunge into northern europe looks likely, but will it affect us?

I sure hope not!

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I sure hope not!

a cooler spell, even a cold one, is inevitable as im sure you understand.. at some point.