Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[damianslaw]

17 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes looking forward to the weekend cool overnight but the weekend Friday-Monday looking beautiful clear skies and long sunny intervals well Hello Spring.

Spring Equinox Sunday.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM keeping high pressure in charge with an easterly flow possibility of a general lowering of day time temperatures after some frosty nights but I will take this weather any time over wet and windy bring it on.

[MP-R]

Standard stuff for the time of year showing... it’s often around now that more settled conditions replace more unsettled conditions. Although, there seems to be a tendency for some model runs to bring a rain risk back during next week. Before then though, an inclement day tomorrow then at least four sunny days!

[stodge]

UKM keener to keep the HP influence for longer than other models and indeed shifts the core north rather than south which looks the outsider but you hever know...

Beyond that, as the zonal winds relax, we finally get to move the PV off its perch and a change in the pattern as heights shift back west into the Atlantic and the trough drops down into Scandinavia. 

We may well see, and this is far from unusual, an early April with heights to the north and west and the trough well down to the east of us which means NE winds as LP moves ESE across Northern and Eastern Europe. 

[TQWX]

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Spring Equinox Sunday.

And so it begins! This is the UV forecast for Torquay on Saturday. I don't usually use sunscreen in March but I'm not risking UV4 when I'll be out all day.

 

[Frosty.]

On 07/03/2022 at 19:09, jon snow said:

Anyone up for another easterly wild goose chase in late March?! … it will probably end up in Greece again …

 

Looking at the latest Gfs / Ecm 0z….that’s what’s happened..again.. spooky!  

Edited March 16, 2022 by jon snow

[Scorcher]

6 hours ago, TQWX said:

And so it begins! This is the UV forecast for Torquay on Saturday. I don't usually use sunscreen in March but I'm not risking UV4 when I'll be out all day.

 

The sun is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere spring than it is at the corresponding time in autumn due to the Earth being closer to the sun at this time of year. Good to see it beginning to pack a punch again.

[Mark Smithy]

12 hours ago, MP-R said:

Standard stuff for the time of year showing... it’s often around now that more settled conditions replace more unsettled conditions. Although, there seems to be a tendency for some model runs to bring a rain risk back during next week. Before then though, an inclement day tomorrow then at least four sunny days!

I think I read that April is the driest month in London? It really is amazing how often nowadays we seem to get glorious high pressure days around now. Last year was an exceptional example with a long, prolonged, dry spell although tempered at times by a chilly wind.

When I write 'amazing' I suppose it has to do with the upstream temperature signals becoming less extreme?

Edited March 16, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Mark Smithy]

21 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

I simply dont "get" the "wrong" tag..

Well twice this month the GFS has got the positioning of the high wrong. Inaccurate. Misplaced. Not in the right position, if you prefer. It repeatedly built a Scandinavian High which on both occasions was inaccurate.

UKMO and ECM were correct that the high was going to build over north Germany, not Scandinavia. You may think this is minor but it makes all the difference to the UK.

It's really very simple and there's no need to post anything personal about it, nor to elaborate. The GFS got it wrong. Period.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Mark Smithy said:

Well twice this month the GFS has got the positioning of the high wrong. Inaccurate. Misplaced. Not in the right position, if you prefer. It repeatedly built a Scandinavian High which on both occasions was inaccurate.

UKMO and ECM were correct that the high was going to build over north Germany, not Scandinavia. You may think this is minor but it makes all the difference to the UK.

It's really very simple and there's no need to post anything personal about it, nor to elaborate. The GFS got it wrong. Period.

Well, I've been watching anticyclones build in the 'wrong' place since the 1960s. But, back then, it went 'wrong' within twenty-four hours . . . and not ten days!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

I think I read that April is the driest month in London? It really is amazing how often nowadays we seem to get glorious high pressure days around now. Last year was an exceptional example with a long, prolonged, dry spell although tempered at times by a chilly wind.

When I write 'amazing' I suppose it has to do with the upstream temperature signals becoming less extreme?

That doesn’t surprise me. June wins that award here but only just.

Didn’t get those conditions here last year until the very end of the month when it hit 22 degrees! They are lovely though those first warm feeling days. As a plus, the UV index is looking strong for March over the weekend so a good time to get the tan started without the burning that comes with it by mid April.

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

I think I read that April is the driest month in London? It really is amazing how often nowadays we seem to get glorious high pressure days around now. Last year was an exceptional example with a long, prolonged, dry spell although tempered at times by a chilly wind.

When I write 'amazing' I suppose it has to do with the upstream temperature signals becoming less extreme?

I think you will find that both February and March have less rainfall on average the April in London

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, TQWX said:

And so it begins! This is the UV forecast for Torquay on Saturday. I don't usually use sunscreen in March but I'm not risking UV4 when I'll be out all day.

 

It's usually April when I staer to burn from the sun if don't put on enough cream. Generally 1 April to mid Sept. The sun gains significant strength over next few weeks and catches many people out. Number of red backs and necks when we have a sunny Easter notable to see! Easter 2022 the sun is as strong as late August but I bet many don't bother with cream until May at the earliest, equate heat with suncream not time of year. Can burn easy under sunshine at temps mid single digits still in April as is often case on the fells. Even at 0 degrees.

Edited March 16, 2022 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

Well twice this month the GFS has got the positioning of the high wrong. Inaccurate. Misplaced. Not in the right position, if you prefer. It repeatedly built a Scandinavian High which on both occasions was inaccurate.

UKMO and ECM were correct that the high was going to build over north Germany, not Scandinavia. You may think this is minor but it makes all the difference to the UK.

It's really very simple and there's no need to post anything personal about it, nor to elaborate. The GFS got it wrong. Period.

No model suite gets every run "right" .... so i dont understand your gripe over this instance when a PREDICTIVE chart didnt get the exact position of the high in the exact place it ended up. Maybe you are new to model watching, i dont know, but these minor errors happen frequently from all model suites.

After nearly 50 years of weather watching and working outdoors, im fully aware of the differences to our weather the precise position of high pressure somewhere to our east can bring. I also know not to take at face value any particular run as gospel just because it shows a weather type i prefer, IF other models suites do not agree.

For now, im very happy with the current outputs that have closed the door on cold, and instead has some wonderful spring warmth on offer

[damianslaw]

ECM and GFS show a very blocked outlook for the foreseeable resulting in a mostly fine dry mild spell, though a feature appears Sunday/Monday a cut off shallow low that could give some rain. Long term GFS shows a full on arctic blast.. don't discount synoptics could deliver such an evolution.

[Alexis]

4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I think you will find that both February and March have less rainfall on average the April in London

March does. February doesn't.

[minus10]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

ECM and GFS show a very blocked outlook for the foreseeable resulting in a mostly fine dry mild spell, though a feature appears Sunday/Monday a cut off shallow low that could give some rain. Long term GFS shows a full on arctic blast.. don't discount synoptics could deliver such an evolution.

Jff i know but gfs also latter run shows some heat building to the far se....get the synoptics right and ...could be interesting

 

 

[Cleeve Hill]

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

[Andy Bown]

31 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

Today’s rain was very poorly modelled and forecast by Met Office, Net Weather, GFS.

They had even until late yesterday not much rain away from the SE 1/4.

It has been and continues to be an absolute soaker.

[SLEETY]

 Arctic blast in Early April still a possibility then, gfs going for it again. 

A repeat of April 1917 would be interesting! 

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

Same here, met radar showed no rain last night and we've ended up with half a month's worth in one shot. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

Dreadful forecasts for most areas today, most had rain say just for Oxford eastwards from around 3pm, not a washout, very disappointing

the next shocker wet day looks like it will be on Monday, one to watch

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

 Arctic blast in Early April still a possibility then, gfs going for it again. 

A repeat of April 1917 would be interesting! 

It's 2 weeks away! All I can see within the reliable is mild, settled spring conditions with some potentially quite warm days for the time of year away from the east coast.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Anybody know what happened re todays forecast for Cheltenham? 
 

last night forecast was mainly dry. Clerk of the course decides to water and then from 10.00 am it started to rain and it’s still raining. 
 

v strange forecast

As far as I can see there has been a fair bit of uncerttainty regarding the interaction of the cold front moving east and the warm front feature tracking NNE from France. A couple of day ago the METO were going for moderate/heavy pulses of rain but last nigfht tracking the latter a tad further east not so much. It would seem the earlier interpretation was nearer the mark

Edited March 16, 2022 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It's 2 weeks away! All I can see within the reliable is mild, settled spring conditions with some potentially quite warm days for the time of year away from the east coast.

Yes for Manchester, but for areas like mine, look like seeing a washout on Monday, and north sea filth probs