Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Frosty.]

Apart from the occasional fly in the ointment the Gfs 12z operational is a very good run if you’re a fan of high pressure, sunshine and mostly pleasant temperatures for the time of year! ️ 

[ANYWEATHER]

2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Today’s rain was very poorly modelled and forecast by Met Office, Net Weather, GFS.

They had even until late yesterday not much rain away from the SE 1/4.

It has been and continues to be an absolute soaker.

Yes BBC forecast was for hit and miss rain on the video forecast last night, we ended up with about an inch of rain

[stodge]

Evening all

UKM and GEM show the HP orienting NW-SE bringing a more SE'ly flow over the British Isles but with time the core of HP tries to migrate west to sit more to the north of Scotland. Both JMA and to an extent ECM take the HP further west which opens the door to a N'ly blast - JMA's N'ly is especially potent 

Just for fun at this stage - GFS wants little to do with a blocked pattern re-asserting the Atlantic in far FI - this usually means there's no strong signal at this stage.

[minus10]

43 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Apart from the occasional fly in the ointment the Gfs 12z operational is a very good run if you’re a fan of high pressure, sunshine and mostly pleasant temperatures for the time of year! ️ 

Yes the next 'fly in the ointment' could prove to be another washout for Monday...as for today in a good part of central and eastern England.

Very difficult to get details accurate for these (smaller) features...

[Cambrian]

Yes,, maybe something a bit fishy going on with the 12z ECM operational run for day 8-10, but interesting to see a proper retrogression being modelled by the ECM.

The UK and Ireland continuing to be sharked by high pressure at day 8, the shark slowly retrogressing west in pursuit of a dolphin ridging its way down to the Azores.
 

By day 10, the shark’s gone, the dolphin evidently got away safely, and we have some proper retrogression of the high, with the possible appearance of an Arctic blow(fish).

 

[damianslaw]

GFS 6z showed retrogressionand arctic blast 2 weeks time.. now ECM does the same but earlier time range 10 days. Now is the time of year we see the classic spring switcharounds from southerlies to northerlies and vice versa in 48 hrs. A colder flow from the north very plausible I say.

[ChannelThunder]

Genuine question: the mentions of a washout on Monday don't add up with what I'm seeing on the models, which just looks like a few passing showers. Are we expecting that low to produce more rainfall than it's been showing on the last few runs?

In any case, it's not every day that we have a depression born over the Alps come along to our shores! It's a shame it's not the summer as something like that could give a very hot and thundery couple of days.

[Allseasons-Si]

Hello,...long time no post,...how you's all doing

as others have mentioned^^,the gfs 12z is a great outlook for some settled weather with just a little blip around the beginning of next week as cool pool of air associated with a little low feature gets dragged up from the SE thanks to a trough out west of the UK forcing it north through the UK(all models show this) but before and after that is looking increasingly settled

take the 12z gefs ens for example,...that looks pretty reasonable to me with hardly any unsettled weather and looks predominantly dry,...bring it on,...i do need to get out in the garden at some point

BUT!!! for how long will this fine spell last?

as mentioned by post's^^ there is the ECM and JMA that show a northerly plunge by day ten so who will be right?

i do sense that there might be a retrogression west of this high pressure as the MJO moves into phase 6/7 once again by the end of the month and start of April,...gardeners beware

the latest gfs 18z tries to attempt Atlantic heights by day ten so one to watch over the coming days.

 

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hello,...long time no post,...how you's all doing

as others have mentioned^^,the gfs 12z is a great outlook for some settled weather with just a little blip around the beginning of next week as cool pool of air associated with a little low feature gets dragged up from the SE thanks to a trough out west of the UK forcing it north through the UK(all models show this) but before and after that is looking increasingly settled

take the 12z gefs ens for example,...that looks pretty reasonable to me with hardly any unsettled weather and looks predominantly dry,...bring it on,...i do need to get out in the garden at some point

BUT!!! for how long will this fine spell last?

as mentioned by post's^^ there is the ECM and JMA that show a northerly plunge by day ten so who will be right?

i do sense that there might be a retrogression west of this high pressure as the MJO moves into phase 6/7 once again by the end of the month and start of April,...gardeners beware

the latest gfs 18z tries to attempt Atlantic heights by day ten so one to watch over the coming days.

 

Very likely evolution.. heights retrogressing.. 

[SLEETY]

Ecm retrogressing the high again at the end. 

Day 10 though..... 

Edited March 17, 2022 by SLEETY

[mb018538]

Looking very settled on the whole for the next 10 days (barring the little nuisance feature late Sunday into Monday).

ECM Op starts to pull the high out to the NW this morning....but GEM and GFS aren't too interested at the moment. 



I suspect for many a dry and quiet spell of weather is a decent outcome at the moment:

[Frosty.]

Overall, nice output from the Gfs / Ecm 0z ops with plenty of high pressure bringing sunshine and for the most part, decent temperatures..for sure it would feel pleasant in the strengthening sun!… there’s just a little fly in the ointment at the start of next week and then towards the end of the Gfs it becomes more unsettled but apart from that, you couldn’t really ask for better considering all the strong winds / storms and rain / flooding we had during that abysmal winter!…spring has sprung! ️ 

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm retrogressing the high again at the end. 

Day 10 though..... 

ECM gotta ECM. 

Fine and settled for the most part though, albeit Sun/Mon could see a little rain pushing northwards IMBY.

[Methuselah]

A wee bit late with this week's Met Office 10-Day Forecast; but, anyway, here it is: Beware of the uncertainty!

 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm retrogressing the high again at the end. 

Day 10 though..... 

Still there but as said 10 day long range. GFS often sniffs out a northerly then drops ot but brings it back just as it nears semi- reliable. Expect it to show similar evolution 8-9 day range over the weekend or may be not..

[damianslaw]

GfS and ECM both show lowering.g heights over Iberia in a weeks time thanks to low pressure taking a SE path off mid Atlantic. GfS develops a shallower feature which fills thus maintaining heights over and to the east of UK, ECM shows a deeper feature which allows for heights to build to the north and north west acting as a pull on the high hence it is advected NW. All eyes on where low heights over mid Atlantic develop and interact with the block. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

4 hours ago, jon snow said:

Overall, nice output from the Gfs / Ecm 0z ops with plenty of high pressure bringing sunshine and for the most part, decent temperatures..for sure it would feel pleasant in the strengthening sun!… there’s just a little fly in the ointment at the start of next week and then towards the end of the Gfs it becomes more unsettled but apart from that, you couldn’t really ask for better considering all the strong winds / storms and rain / flooding we had during that abysmal winter!…spring has sprung! ️ 

Have we just emerged from different winters?  Other than a few notable interludes, it's been a pretty long drier than average stretch for many and given the outlook from the models (particularly the GFS) for the rest of this month, March looks like continuing that trend. 

Potential for some decent diurnal ranges in the next fortnight. Still a frost risk at night but easily mid-high teens as time goes on.

[Frosty.]

Apart from a little green.. ..fly in the ointment late sun and into mon.. ..the Gfs 6z op is dominated by high pressure…so, on balance…. ..I would say it’s a predominantly nice outlook.. for those who prefer nice settled weather..ok the end kinda sucks but we can’t have everything..can we?.. ! ️ 

Edited March 17, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Have we just emerged from different winters?  

I’m preety sure we have..maybe it was just a dream…hmmmmm… …nightmare..more like?!  

But anyway..the Gfs 6z op wasn’t two bad!  

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by jon snow

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Have we just emerged from different winters?  Other than a few notable interludes, it's been a pretty long drier than average stretch for many and given the outlook from the models (particularly the GFS) for the rest of this month, March looks like continuing that trend. 

Potential for some decent diurnal ranges in the next fortnight. Still a frost risk at night but easily mid-high teens as time goes on.

A lot of places had a thorough soaking yesterday, so with quite a long time until April, March may not be that dry on average. Quite a few spots in southern England have had the month's worth of rain already.

[chapmanslade]

On 16/03/2022 at 16:44, Andy Bown said:

Today’s rain was very poorly modelled and forecast by Met Office, Net Weather, GFS.

They had even until late yesterday not much rain away from the SE 1/4.

It has been and continues to be an absolute soaker.

@fergieweather highlighted the uncertainty on Tuesday and said it could run further west as it did.

[ANYWEATHER]

Next week shows some strong diurnal temperatures, typical for Spring. Could be some isolated thunderstorms especially over high ground of Wales for instance given some slight instabilty, but all in some decent weather to look forward to...

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z op goes for a cold incursion from the north later in the run and sets up a potential reload beyond day 10?…so, a possibly chilly end to March / start to April according to this…wouldn’t be too surprising to see cold weather, now that winter is over…actually, scrub that, it wasn’t winter..it was the longest autumn in history!!  

[damianslaw]

Differences between GFS and ECM just outside reliable. ECM continues to lower heights over Iberia and kicks heights further west allowing colder air from the north to make it's way to the UK. GFS shows only shallow low heights in Iberia and heights just sit over the UK with Atlantic trough held far to the west. Normally GFS is more bullish of the two.. UKMO trending more towards ECM 6-7 days, more concerted lower heights over Iberoa and a northerly source looks likely thereafter. 

No justification behind this but GFS just looks like it has got stuck at 8 days and I am expecting more fluidity. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs was a great run for a fine spell of weather up until day ten but watching out into fl shows what could happen when the tpv relents from it's NW quarters,...this is a close call for a battleground snow event over the UK,...i will be keeping tabs on this

 

the ext'd EPS clusters show a possible scenario of Atlantic heights into Greenland north into the pole with trough down into NW Europe.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by Allseasons-si