Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Guest]

Take your pick! 
 

Anything from freezing easterly to relatively mild southerly. Very little consensus beyond day 6 or so but going into the middle of March I don’t think anyones interested in raw, cold weather and temps of 4 or 5C 
 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well from the ops ecm and gfs show some sort of easterly developing later next week, but will it verify? Well probably......! well seeing most of us are not interested in cold conditions now and are now looking for some Spring warmth and this is the time of year that statisticaly Easterly winds are most common ,its more likely to happen than not, only three months too late for winter fans Anyway a little Spring warmth for southerners next week ,although you blink and you'll miss it...!

[Cambrian]

Yes, very weak support from day 5 for the 0z ECM op from the ensembles, the cold solution is in the mix, but not well supported yet. 

Same for GFS from day 8, the cold op solution very much at the low end of the pack, but with some support from the control.

Surface temperatures are decidedly suppressed though, even taking the ECM mean, double figures a rare luxury for the foreseeable for Birmingham for example, 3-9 degrees just about doing it for the range. A degree or two colder without the urban heat island effects, with potential for a good few frosts for either Birmingham or Builth.
 

The main take home for me is that considering this is the middle to end of March being shown, it’s definitely looking like yet another slow, cold spring even without the more exceptional possibilities being modelled now and again by the ops.

[Dancerwithwings]

Will it, won’t it.....that’s been our Winter 21-22

This mornings ECM ...if this does verify....it’s a little too late methinks 

 

[stodge]

Morning all

As @Cambrian wisely opines, very early days but are we looking at winter's last hurrah or spring's first surprise ?

Hardly the first Day 10 chart in any winter to tease and tantalise. It looks as though the push of HP next weekend from the south west is enough, combined with lower heights over Iberia and France, to allow a significant rise of pressure from the north east and that's quite a chilly little bit of air coming our way.

The GFS 00Z T+240 10 HPA wind profile is interesting - after weeks of very strong zonal winds, clear signs of a fall off which would also encourage heights:

The entire GFS 00Z run in FI is eye candy for fans of cold weather as the weakened PV finally pulls further west over Canada leaving again the opportunity for heights to build to our north east, then north and eventually over Greenland.  However, at this time it's just nice to look at - if it's still here in a week's time and is at T+72, well, some will still say it'll downgrade, won't they?

[Eagle Eye]

This Winter has been the Winter of chases without the success but that shows it hasn't been without chances, this is most of the reason why I love the weather. Watching the radar as the storm approaches, looking at all the twists and turns in the models, it might not end up happening but it definitely isn't boring. Even if this doesn't verify, something will, something exciting is always happening with the weather,  it's unlike anything else that I find interesting, it's unlike sport, unlike a book. We try to predict it, yet it is so, unpredictable. . With the weather, it feels like shaking hands with mother nature but mother nature won't shake our hands if it's got her blood on it. Anyway, got a bit off topic there.

Early days here but a slim chance of this or something similar coming off and at this point, I'll take any chance I've got. Does seem like a possibility that it could happen though, the dynamics earlier on in recent runs do seem to have the same characteristics as other easterlies. The movement of the high to split south and north and the blocking Rossby wave to the west splitting off a weakened Icelandic low, it blocks the westerlies, the runs will vary the strength of the low out to the east and that may be what sets this easterly off or stops it. That's why it's a waiting game for now in my opinion.

This run, the easterly is weaker than last time, next run it may be different.

Look at that stratosphere as well (once again a bit off topic)

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[damianslaw]

Sometimes easterlies happen quickly but more often they are slow builders.. can sense atmosphere undergoing a change from winter base state, trough and low pressure tomorrow filling over UK instead of moving east.. this allows for heights to build to the SW and in time merge with strong heights to the NE. This is what the models are currently showing but too early to call whether a major pattern change is on the way or not. If this was Oct to Feb I'd be much more cautious about the block fending off the Atlantic, but we are into mid March now and such circumstances far more likely to verify until about mid June when the Atlantic typically gains upper hand again. 

[Frosty.]

On 07/03/2022 at 19:09, jon snow said:

Anyone up for another easterly wild goose chase in late March?! … it will probably end up in Greece again …

 

I don’t know how this will play out BUT for sure, the GEFS 6z mean shows strong support for an easterly in the last third of March, how cold?..how snowy?…if at all?.. ..as yet unknown!  

PS.. if it does happen, it’s still a real slap in the face for coldies..should have been January..NOT almost April!  

 

[Methuselah]

45 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I don’t know how this will play out BUT for sure, the GEFS 6z mean shows strong support for an easterly in the last third of March, how cold?..how snowy?…if at all?.. ..as yet unknown!  

PS.. if it does happen, it’s still a real slap in the face for coldies..should have been January..NOT almost April!  

 

Here's hoping it doesn't happen, Karl!

[Ali1977]

Chilly easterly at day 10, dew points will be below freezing but mot sure it’s a snow machine at this time of the year!! Day 11/12 may be turning colder still though.

 

Edit - Day 11 and the snow showers off the North Sea starts!! 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Ali1977

[summer blizzard]

Ensembles have less of an undercut so cool but unremarkable.

[Cambrian]

At 12z, the GFS operational run is at it again. How many times bitten? How many times shy? Oh, go on then!

High pressure nosing up from the southwest by day 5, merging with the Scandinavian high, which then takes control, with an eastsoutheasterly flow from day 6.

 

No snowy breakdown from the southwest on this run, but the continental supply remains with us through to day 10, a truer easterly by then, brings through an upper level low and some more meaningful looking snow for day 12. 

  

The easterly setup breaks down a bit after that, but the UK and Ireland still largely under the influence of high pressure.

[offerman]

Short memorIes: 

2018 I’m sure there was some snow in March even into April then really high temperatures the end of April with some spectacular thunderstorms 

 

i’m sure that was the year there was 30 cm of snow here in Somerset and quite widely across the south of the UK from a very cold and snowy low-pressure that just kept delivering 

just because it’s getting into March does not mean we can’t have some decent snow and even powder snow that can settle and last for a few days if the cold is deep enough with some good 850- -10s 

 

 

so there is hope

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, offerman said:

Short memorIes: 

2018 I’m sure there was some snow in March even into April then really high temperatures the end of April with some spectacular thunderstorms 

 

i’m sure that was the year there was 30 cm of snow here in Somerset and quite widely across the south of the UK from a very cold and snowy low-pressure that just kept delivering 

just because it’s getting into March does not mean we can’t have some decent snow and even powder snow that can settle and last for a few days if the cold is deep enough with some good 850- -10s 

 

 

so there is hope

I remember it very well, 24cm fell in my back yard that weekend 

March 2013 wasn’t bad either

[SqueakheartLW]

Just had to show you all this chart as it is truly remarkable for mid April, mostly for those 850hpa temps.

Here's P28 on the GFS extended run for today at +780 hours away or Tuesday 12th April 2022

That wouldn't look out of place in summer in a typical Spanish plume but to see the 10C isotherm up to Scotland, the 15C isotherm over most of England and Wales and the 20C isotherm well into central and southern England is highly unusual for April.

If this verified it must be a record breaker for 850hpa temps.

You can see the member sticking up like a sore thumb there on the right of the chart. A massive outlier compared with the rest of the ensembles but knowing the way things are with extremes these days you just never know.

[Cambrian]

12z ECM op also goes for an upper level low from the continent, but at day 9, a couple of days earlier than the GFS, and takes it further, developing it into a full blown low over southwest England at day 10. Some reasonable uppers in the mix too. 

 

Day 10 GEM up to something similar, with developments of low pressure around the southern flank of the high.

Timing different, but consensus for a Scandinavian high and some form of cold air embedded low off the continent around or soon after the equinox. 

[stodge]

Well, now...

-7 850s late in March - a nice cold wet day but for the hills of Wales?

[Ali1977]

Just now, stodge said:

Well, now...

-7 850s late in March - a nice cold wet day but for the hills of Wales?

Cold enough for a dusting of snow from the East, long way off but a dryer cold air mass looks very possible - snow forecasting pointless at this stage but you never know

[stodge]

This is the Easter snow set up I remember from 2008 - covering even in East London:

[SqueakheartLW]

34 minutes ago, stodge said:

This is the Easter snow set up I remember from 2008 - covering even in East London:

The best part was Easter Sunday itself however

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Just had to show you all this chart as it is truly remarkable for mid April, mostly for those 850hpa temps.

Here's P28 on the GFS extended run for today at +780 hours away or Tuesday 12th April 2022

That wouldn't look out of place in summer in a typical Spanish plume but to see the 10C isotherm up to Scotland, the 15C isotherm over most of England and Wales and the 20C isotherm well into central and southern England is highly unusual for April.

If this verified it must be a record breaker for 850hpa temps.

You can see the member sticking up like a sore thumb there on the right of the chart. A massive outlier compared with the rest of the ensembles but knowing the way things are with extremes these days you just never know.

That is one of the most extraordinary charts I've ever seen!  That would surely result in temperatures approaching 30°C

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Just had to show you all this chart as it is truly remarkable for mid April, mostly for those 850hpa temps.

Here's P28 on the GFS extended run for today at +780 hours away or Tuesday 12th April 2022

That wouldn't look out of place in summer in a typical Spanish plume but to see the 10C isotherm up to Scotland, the 15C isotherm over most of England and Wales and the 20C isotherm well into central and southern England is highly unusual for April.

If this verified it must be a record breaker for 850hpa temps.

You can see the member sticking up like a sore thumb there on the right of the chart. A massive outlier compared with the rest of the ensembles but knowing the way things are with extremes these days you just never know.

Imagine that in July! although rare as the Atlantic tends to dominate July more than April

[Mildcarlisle]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold enough for a dusting of snow from the East, long way off but a dryer cold air mass looks very possible - snow forecasting pointless at this stage but you never know

Where did Scotland go? 

[Dancerwithwings]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Imagine that in July! although rare as the Atlantic tends to dominate July more than April

Talking of rare, March 2018 ...when earlier today regarding that weekend I posted this afternoon (March 2013)  ....Saturday into Sunday, well that snowfall didn’t stop, with a amazing wintry moments for us  coldies But how was this at the time ( in Spring) was this, it never got above freezing that/them two days over that weekend.. for March...now that’s rare IRA

[Tim Bland]

Good chance of some snow flurries in the east late next weekend as models firm up on the easterly