Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[SqueakheartLW]

Take your pick on the GFS 12z for +384h away.

 

Either

 

Early spring warmth

P27

 

Or

 

A last attempt at an easterly for us snow starved ones

P23

 

I know which one I'd prefer with my coldie winter bias but knowing the UK it will be P27 that verifies, not P23

[Tim Bland]

^^ That easterly wouldn’t bring anything of interest snow wise so may as well have spring

[Bradowl]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

^^ That easterly wouldn’t bring anything of interest snow wise so may as well have spring

I always look to North for anything wintry once we get to end of March, Europe is starting to warm but the polar air likes to spread South, especially once we hit April. 

An Easterly could bring Spring like conditions in sunshine away from east coast. 

[Cambrian]

Drier weather still looking to be available only on a grab-it-while-you-can basis for the next 8 days or so on the 12z operational runs, with high pressure finding it difficult to properly assert itself over the UK and Ireland, and a distinctly unsettled weekend in store before signs of an improvement after mid-month. 

A deep depression pushing up the west of Ireland at 108h on the GFS, UKMO and ECM. GEM has it over the southwest approaches, ready to run up through the UK. 

GFS / UKMO / ECM / GEM

   

Out to day 7, more unsettled weather pushes down from the northwest on the UKMO and GEM, with a further belt of rain across us on day 8 ((GEM). 

  

The GFS keeping a southeasterly flow with some showers across the southern half of the UK, before it too relents to a weaker band of rain from the west on day 8. 
 

ECM the midway solution at day 7, but looking glorious by day 9, so some signs that the weekend after next will be a lot better than the coming one for the outside. 
  

[Sky Full]

Another named storm for us to look forward to on the 12/13th March (according to ICON)?    
 

Also features in some other models including UKMO:

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Sky Full

[minus10]

Well st the end of the ec run 2 things stick out...

The ever present vortex to the nw and the vast block to the east covering the whole of Europe, Scandi and to the east. Type of synoptic that could continue to feed in very springlike conditions for us..

[minus10]

Interestingly the gfs 0z showing the vortex more n ne than ec at 240.

Block still there to the east but orientation allowing colder air into the mix temporarily. Overall still i think springlike conditions will prevail if more from the sw following this run through....

 

 

[Cambrian]

Day 7 differences between the 12z operational runs - the GFS is keen to edge a continental high and entraining flow over the UK and Ireland;; GEM has a bit of interest in the Azores high nosing up from the southwest; and the good old UKMO hasn’t much interest in either, keeping us more firmly in a westerly flow with barometric pressure around 10mb lower than the other two models.

GFS / GEM / UKMO 

  

GEM and GFS completely divergent by day 10. The Azores high just about wins the race with the GEM, while the GFS keeps the Baltic high, but by then bringing in a breakdown from the southwest, with some cold air in place over the UK and Ireland, cold enough to indicate some snow in parts of the north and east before the rain moves up from the south. 
GEM / GFS various

    

These are interesting op runs from the GFS today, the 6z had even more striking day 10 charts, the op out on its own with respect to the ensembles, but it’s still happy enough to give it another go at 12z with something similar, less extreme in terms of cold but with more support from the pack. 

6z NH for 240h

  

GEFS 6z  / 12z for Birmingham 
 

[damianslaw]

Yet again the UK is a magnet to mild air.. we were not far off a cold set up alas east and se Europe is getting that and instead a south westerly / southerly flow envelopes us. There is also alot of cold polar air pulling into mid Atlantic..  we sit between the two.. the block to the east preventing the cold polar air making inroads. End result frontal systems coming unstuck over UK.

[Methuselah]

Eurika!

Here's the Met's latest take on the models. Even the P-word gets a mention:

 

[Cambrian]

Good to see this one come in for parts of southern Ireland - hats off to ECM

Weather warnings for rain and low temperatures

WWW.RTE.IE

---

A Status Orange rain warning has been issued for five counties until 9pm tonight.

ECM charts from 12z Monday for this afternoon, temperature and snow depth, turned out to be not too far off the mark at all.

 

Just goes to show like is often said on here, you don’t need amazing synoptics for lowland snow, and that goes for March too. Fethard in County Tipperary is 69m above sea level. Stubborn cold air in situ with slow moving heavy precipitation can sometimes be enough to do the trick.

Looking at the fax synopsis for 12z today and comparing it with the forecast for the same time from two days ago, the low was actually a tad shallower than forecast but had a more intact circulation edging into those southern countries of Ireland. 
48h Forecast / Synopsis

 

[minus10]

They do say variety is the spice of life...well gfs 18z has it..

Windy/mild with some rain

Potentially stormy, particularly in the west

Quite balmy..

Cold with cold rain/sleet..

well....typical spring i suppose...

 

 

[offerman]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Yet again the UK is a magnet to mild air.. we were not far off a cold set up alas east and se Europe is getting that and instead a south westerly / southerly flow envelopes us. There is also alot of cold polar air pulling into mid Atlantic..  we sit between the two.. the block to the east preventing the cold polar air making inroads. End result frontal systems coming unstuck over UK.

Well said Damian, my thoughts for this whole winter really. 

[mb018538]

Some early spring mildness on the ECM/GFS for next week. Temps 15-19c possible depending on wind direction/sun amounts.

[ANYWEATHER]

Overall, looking predominantly dry in the next ten days for just about all away from the far west  apart from a wet blip tomorrow even here drying out into next week. Mildish , conditions , but perhaps turning somewhat colder from the East later next week as the Gfs is so keen on showing Maybe some frosts to watch out for in the near future too 

[mushymanrob]

Looks like the Polar Vortex thats sat over Baffin Island is on the move Northwards at long last...

Meanwhile if you like mainly mild, dry, bright conditions in March you could well be in luck!
 

Edited March 10, 2022 by mushymanrob

[summer blizzard]

Euro is golden for spring lovers. 

Pressure build to the E/SE of us. Decent scope for sunshine and decent maxima. 

[Allseasons-Si]

LOL!

gfs at day ten

lets see where it sits in the  gefs ens later but it has some support from the ext'd EPS with heights to our N/NE clusters 1 & 2

3rd cluster with retrogressing heights to our NW. 

this isn't uncommon at this time of the year and we could get a good ol blast from the east.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[minus10]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

LOL!

gfs at day ten

lets see where it sits in the  gefs ens later but it has some support from the ext'd EPS with heights to our N/NE clusters 1 & 2

3rd cluster with retrogressing heights to our NW. 

this isn't uncommon at this time of the year and we could get a good ol blast from the east.

 

Interesting that the gfs 12z at 237 shows the minus 10 line mirroring the east coastline but never encroaching over land...?? 

 

[Ali1977]

EC lining up a cold pool from the East, last chance saloon maybe !! 

[Allseasons-Si]

I would of loved to have seen the day 11 chart from the ECM and follows the gfs 12z...

[minus10]

25 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EC lining up a cold pool from the East, last chance saloon maybe !! 

If i had had a drink at all the last chance saloons i'd be wrecked by now ......but what the heck..ill drink to another ...then to a warming up spring..

[Allseasons-Si]

Just a last quick one from me

the  NOAA 500mb height anomalies 6-10 and 8-14 days shows upper flow from the SW with +ve heights into Scandi as we know but is that surface winds coming from the SE then backing E in the ext'd?

the EPS and De-built are late this evening,...i might get the chance to post them later,...if not then i will tomorrow

the NAO/AO are starting to trend negative also,...let's see if we can get one last shot at cold this winter,...spring  sorry,then a warm up afterwards

laters all,...going to watch the new season of the Last Kingdom.

[SLEETY]

Models going for another chance of a proper easterly after the one forecasted for this week never made it, no signs of any easterly winds throughout winter but now another chance now that we hit spring, can't make this crud up

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by SLEETY

[Allseasons-Si]

The cold marching westwards all be it a bit later than the 12z but the general theme is still the same,...IE-Scandi heights with stalling fronts out west disrupting south of the UK=easterly into the UK

Edit: erm,...that is quite capable of a snow machine from the east.