Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond

[Mark Smithy]

8 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Good chance of some snow flurries in the east late next weekend as models firm up on the easterly 

 

But the models do NOT firm up on 'the' easterly. 

All of this is predicated first and foremost on a Scandinavian High forming, which even NW front page takes as a given:

 

But this is where the easterly may fall at its first hurdle. Neither UKMO nor ECM agree with GFS about a Scandinavian High forming. For UKMO it is over north of Germany and for ECM it is sliding away across eastern Europe. This makes all the difference for the UK. Without a Scandinavian High there can be no easterly.

But even the GFS doesn't exactly inspire confidence in its own operational run. The Scandinavian High is hardly well supported amongst the GFS' own ensembles.

 

The UKMO has the centre of the high over north Germany, which means that the cold down the eastern flank will always remain 500 miles or more to our east or south, leaving the UK in a much milder southerly draw:

 

The ECM is with UKMO on this:

Right now based on the UKMO, ECM and lack of GFS ensemble support I'd say the chances of a cold easterly are low because there's very little confidence that the high will build over Scandinavia. If it doesn't happen then this will be the second time in a month that the GFS has got the positioning of the high wrong. 

[keithlucky]

Looks like a colder than average start to spring as a stratospheric warming over Europe is underway.

[Tim Bland]

ECM at day 10 has potential

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Looks like a colder than average start to spring as a stratospheric warming over Europe is underway.

Spring started on March 1st, well, the Meteorological Spring did and this is a weather site...

[Cambrian]

It’s a fair point from @Mark Smithy there is a consistent difference between the ops and the means, no doubt adding to the sense of quiet misgiving. 

If we look at the ensemble mean charts from ECM and GFS for the very edge of anything reliable at day 7, the GFS has the high centred over the Baltic states (but wow, a 1045mb+ central pressure on a day 7 mean!) -  

and the ECM a bit further south over Belarus.

 

 

As a result, the cold air struggles to get as far north and west as the UK, on the means at least, with southeasterlies rather than easterlies indicated by both. The mean charts all get a bit “averaged out” after that, and the cold air over Central Europe doesn’t reach us, even by day 10 or 11.

It might in reality be different for that period as it draws closer, but across the ensembles, it still looks unconvincing at the moment for a properly cold feed from the east. 

But hey, dry with plenty of sunshine and approaching the spring equinox, chilly nights to peg back the garden bugs, I’ll take that. 

[Tim Bland]

Another Easterly from GFS…

[Britneyfan]

Met office and bbc are not onboard with any cold easterly infact next Friday they are forecasting 18° at Heathrow and London at 15° which is still above average 

[Spah1]

8 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Met office and bbc are not onboard with any cold easterly infact next Friday they are forecasting 18° at Heathrow and London at 15° which is still above average 

That’s because ‘if’ winds turn east they are only arriving Sunday/Monday. 

[Britneyfan]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

That’s because ‘if’ winds turn east they are only arriving Sunday/Monday. 

Even then they are showing temps 14 and 15° ecm is much less keen on any easterly and same for ukmo, gfs aways gets over friendly then drops it nearer the time 

[Frosty.]

You see this is why I don’t care about an easterly in late March…too little too late blah blah..anyway, the 6z mean has more of a SE’ly…so I don’t care, if it was Jan / Feb… I would care!..but now..unless it was the perfect easterly..I would prefer a warm southerly!… …that’s my sacra membership terminated then! ..sacre bleu!  

Edited March 13, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

3 hours ago, Spah1 said:

That’s because ‘if’ winds turn east they are only arriving Sunday/Monday. 

Yes and tomorrow, the winds will be 'shown to turn east' arriving Monday/Tuesday, if they're still showing at all! 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all ,been away so catching up on charts.ECM looking to bring high level  blocking with colder easterly winds pushing in later one to watch for late cold frosty weather.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the end of the GFS 12z operational, to be honest I would rather tap into something much colder from the north (arctic) than something lame / toothless from the east / southeast….but ideally, I would like to tap into something from the south (Spain-North Africa) !  

 

[Cambrian]

Increasingly sunny  over the next 10 days according to the 72h short wave radiation charts generated from the 12z ECM operational run. 

Not really got its act together up to day 3; looking better day 4 to 6; days 7-9 looking generally sunny.

   
Neat charts these, this weekend’s find! There are 24h charts too, so possible to look at a given day of interest, like - 

Model charts for United Kingdom (Short wave radiation, 24h) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 03/22/2022, 12:00am of parameter "Short wave radiation, 24h", model chart for map "United Kingdom"

- handy for planning a day out).

Not much impact on daytime temperatures for the time being though due to steadfastly chilly nights, a seasonal diurnal range with still plenty of scope for several frosts as high pressure stays nearby, here at day 9, delivering a chilly airflow off the continent. 

  

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Cambrian

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z control follows through on what the end of the operational was alluding to at the end of March and indeed, there is a bit of support for it elsewhere too!.. …as for the easterly in the mid range, nothing that really jumps out and grabs your attention particularly, there’s more of a SE’ly element which is less cold / pretty toothless whereas anything from the north / arctic at the end of March / early April would still potentially pack a serious punch! …  

[SLEETY]

Another easterly bites the dust,end up with SE winds ,going to have to look North now if your looking to see a single snowflake this Spring!

[Mark Smithy]

17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Another easterly bites the dust,end up with SE winds ,going to have to look North now if your looking to see a single snowflake this Spring!

And the second time in a month that the GFS has screwed up the positioning of the high. What really surprises me about that is that its own ensemble members weren't supportive, so why did they keep pushing an operational that was out of kilter with itself and the European models? Someone with better knowledge of how the op is designated may be able to answer that. As I understand it, perturbations are introduced to the op run which produces each of the other ensemble members? Is that right? But is the op a 'pure' unaltered run? I'd love to know how and why for a month now it has been attempting to build a Scandinavian High. Why?????!

UKMO and ECM were never on board with the Scandinavian High (Ok 12z ECM yesterday did have one at T240 but that's the first we've seen of it). They always had the high over northern Germany, which makes all the difference for the UK. Betting on an easterly when the European models aren't supportive is a recipe for trouble I think?

 

Of course, next thing the 12z UKMO and ECM will show a raging easterly 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[mushymanrob]

Some strange comments ..

How can the GFS get the postioning of the high wrong, or how come the Easterlies have failed, when its not happened yet?... Forecasts are forecasts, not promises.

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

And the second time in a month that the GFS has screwed up the positioning of the high. What really surprises me about that is that its own ensemble members weren't supportive, so why did they keep pushing an operational that was out of kilter with itself and the European models? Someone with better knowledge of how the op is designated may be able to answer that. As I understand it, perturbations are introduced to the op run which produces each of the other ensemble members? Is that right? But is the op a 'pure' unaltered run? I'd love to know how and why for a month now it has been attempting to build a Scandinavian High. Why?????!

UKMO and ECM were never on board with the Scandinavian High (Ok 12z ECM yesterday did have one at T240 but that's the first we've seen of it). They always had the high over northern Germany, which makes all the difference for the UK. Betting on an easterly when the European models aren't supportive is a recipe for trouble I think?

 

Of course, next thing the 12z UKMO and ECM will show a raging easterly 

As predicted by yourself 24 hours ago, and this being a very good point  "UKMO and ECM were never on board".

 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Another easterly bites the dust,end up with SE winds ,going to have to look North now if your looking to see a single snowflake this Spring!

Yes, I'm glad we don't have to pay to view the models, I would be asking for a full refund and some compensation

[chapmanslade]

I think some on here view raw model output as a forecast. A forecaster uses the various model output together with knowledge and experience to create a forecast. If you miss any of the three bits out you will be led up the garden path.

[IDO]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Some strange comments ..

How can the GFS get the postioning of the high wrong, or how come the Easterlies have failed, when its not happened yet?... Forecasts are forecasts, not promises.

Studying charts and making forecasts on them are two different things due to bias within models. Since the GFS had an upgrade about a year ago, reportedly modelled on the ECM, it has suffered the fate of ECM from D8, where it blows up highs and the algorithms end up with phantom Scandi highs that rarely materialise. So when I see a D10 GFS Scandi high I dismiss it until there is support within its ensembles and x-model. This latest episode was typical of this winter's failings of the GFS; when forecasting I take into account this behaviour.

The NH looking benign with no tropical forcing, so just the underlying current meandering within the parameters of this winter as the tPV wanes. Just average fare, a mix favouring UK HP>LP medium-term.

[richie3846]

48 minutes ago, IDO said:

Studying charts and making forecasts on them are two different things due to bias within models. Since the GFS had an upgrade about a year ago, reportedly modelled on the ECM, it has suffered the fate of ECM from D8, where it blows up highs and the algorithms end up with phantom Scandi highs that rarely materialise. So when I see a D10 GFS Scandi high I dismiss it until there is support within its ensembles and x-model. This latest episode was typical of this winter's failings of the GFS; when forecasting I take into account this behaviour.

The NH looking benign with no tropical forcing, so just the underlying current meandering within the parameters of this winter as the tPV wanes. Just average fare, a mix favouring UK HP>LP medium-term.

Any chance you can let the day 10 chasers know?

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Studying charts and making forecasts on them are two different things due to bias within models. Since the GFS had an upgrade about a year ago, reportedly modelled on the ECM, it has suffered the fate of ECM from D8, where it blows up highs and the algorithms end up with phantom Scandi highs that rarely materialise. So when I see a D10 GFS Scandi high I dismiss it until there is support within its ensembles and x-model. This latest episode was typical of this winter's failings of the GFS; when forecasting I take into account this behaviour.

The NH looking benign with no tropical forcing, so just the underlying current meandering within the parameters of this winter as the tPV wanes. Just average fare, a mix favouring UK HP>LP medium-term.

.............. which is where the Anomalies come into play. day ten charts are rarely going to agree between runs and between suites.. But if theres a Scandinavian high shown on the GFS WITH support from the anomalies - then its likely to be close to the mark.
IMHO the Anomalies on this occassion never supported a strong, lasting, high directly over Scandinavia (but do just to the south) so i didnt take the GFS showing that as a done deal.. Regardless, day ten charts should never be taken seriously..

[Scorcher]

6 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Another easterly bites the dust,end up with SE winds ,going to have to look North now if your looking to see a single snowflake this Spring!

Truly wonderful news for those of us who want to see the back of snow and cold for another year.

Most people are now very happy to welcome spring and brighter days, so I'm sure I won't be alone in being happy about the cold disappearing.