Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Justin1705]

I think if we can see that elevated crud move through. And some brighter spells in the SE. We could see some storms behind and In front of the elevated shizzle. The cape will be anywhere the sun comes out today. So if we have a few hours of sun in the SE storms will break out. But it does seem that West Midlands and wales will do well. Good luck all

 

its always a nowcast situation with storms in the Uk. The cape values look good for the SE and because of the lack of the feature on the 12z and the peppered showers on the 6z to me shows more surface heating and more chance of showers in south east. Cape values higher in SE at 12 on 06z, on 12z no cape at all. It's always down to the last minutes 

[Mapantz]

Those AROME charts are already wrong, if compared to the radar.

 

[Liam Burge]

Well, looking at the updated MetO warning it;s pretty much been called off for my area. The update wording is interesting though, saying it's been expanded further west when in fact it's been trimmed more east.

[Had Worse]

From clear blue skies earlier,  the clouds are building over the Pennines and starting to get dark bases.

[camturbo]

9 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Well, looking at the updated MetO warning it;s pretty much been called off for my area. The update wording is interesting though, saying it's been expanded further west when in fact it's been trimmed more east.

I just read that strange wording!!! Just got to wait and see and see if anything wanders over to our area.

[Liam Burge]

1 minute ago, camturbo said:

I just read that strange wording!!! Just got to wait and see and see if anything wanders over to our area.

Yeah, convective weather fills me with a tiny bit of hope, but I feel like wales and the midlands are gonna be the prime area today. We'll get our time though!

[camturbo]

5 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Yeah, convective weather fills me with a tiny bit of hope, but I feel like wales and the midlands are gonna be the prime area today. We'll get our time though!

Yeah think your right!! 

[Row w]

Some instability starting to build from the South warming up nicely out there fingers crossed for a boomer

[DeepSnow]

Got some cloud building over now but still very warm and a bit muggy. Fingers crossed I can see my first storm of the year however unlikely lol

[Peachy]

Conditions here in the Midlands seem absolutely perfect. We have all the ingredients for thunder storms.

I'm expecting it to kick off around 4pm onwards.

[Cain]

Looking abit stormy 

[Michael Jd Scott]

Hey guys,hope all are good!!

In all the years I've used this site,pretty sure this is like the second time I've ever posted, lol,by no means do i claim to understand any of the charts etc you guys post,I'm just a major weather freak,with my all time fave been storms,but I've learnt a lot over the years from reading all your posts and love the fact that you all actually explain things too for us less knowledgeable, im getting a little excited today in S.E Wales(10ish miles N.W of Newport) I've come off a night shift and haven't been to bed yet,because to me,my skies are starting to look a little thundery, to my untrained eyes

Its been really hot here this morning and now, within say the last 30mins,the clouds have started to build and fill the sky and the wind has picked up and its starting to feel quite muggy, what do you guys think, from my pic/vid...am i just getting excited over nothing, or would you say I'm in with a chance of seeing a half decent storm?

Cheers guys,and mods,i won't get offended if you remove my post if its not within the lines of being on topic

[snowrye]

I've got my fingers crossed for some action, sounds a bit rude that, ha ha, I'll settle for an hour of heavy rain, it will save me the job, of watering the flowers later. 

[Emz by the Thames]

Working outside today and phew! It's humid. Fingers crossed for a storm as I'm having to spend ages watering the allotment atm...

[StormChaseUK]

I don't think that rain on the radar is hitting the ground ,
 

[TJS1998Tom]

What are Lincolns chances later, worth getting the camera ready? 

[Shane]

2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Here in Ludlow, West Midlands the conditions are prime - I would expect to see cells fire over Brecon/Hay on wye area then move up maybe across to Telford later.

HAHAHA! Not a chance - the storm shield has been on full power for nearly 2 years now. Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton have seen storms. We have been VERY unlucky! 

[Puddy Galore]

7 minutes ago, Shane said:

HAHAHA! Not a chance - the storm shield has been on full power for nearly 2 years now. Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton have seen storms. We have been VERY unlucky! 

Wolves, around my part of Wolves I should clarify,  hasn’t had many, if any, storms since 2020.  In fact I think we had the odd rumble last summer but nothing worthy of note at all. The last humdinger we had was August 2020, which was quite a spectacular storm.  I’m not convinced we will get any later today either.

[Shane]

2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Wolves, around my part of Wolves I should clarify,  hasn’t had many, if any, storms since 2020.  In fact I think we had the odd rumble last summer but nothing worthy of note at all. The last humdinger we had was August 2020, which was quite a spectacular storm.  I’m not convinced we will get any later today either.

Yeah Aug 2020, i remember that one! That was the last time we had anything. Cloud seems to be building around here, only time will tell (it will probably chuck it down about 2:45 when i am on the way to the school to pick my lad up lol!)

[Turquoise]

2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Wolves, around my part of Wolves I should clarify,  hasn’t had many, if any, storms since 2020.  In fact I think we had the odd rumble last summer but nothing worthy of note at all. The last humdinger we had was August 2020, which was quite a spectacular storm.  I’m not convinced we will get any later today either.

same here in my part of Cheshire, an incredible storm in August 2020 and absolutely nothing since.

[Liam Burge]

Today is definitely going to be hit and miss on where these thunderstorms pop up, and even if they do pop up. I hope everyone gets a nice lightning show though.

[Mark Smithy]

Can someone explain what I am missing? Surely that's a line of serious looking convection heading towards the south west of England in the next few hours? But no forecasts seem to be mentioning it.

 

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

 

[Liam Burge]

The sun has actually started poking out here which is a pleasant sign!

@Mark Smithy The MetO actually has a yellow warning for thunderstorms for that area of convection that is heading towards the south coast. It seems like currently it will die out when it hits land, however the chance is there.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cloud has cleared, temps climbing, sun is blazing and it feels quite ripe. Got a feeling Northants up into Leics and into the W Midlands will be where the cap breaks today. 

[It's a Philcast]

A few big spots of rain here in bromsgrove right now.