Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

Unexpected skies this morning. Various patches of well-defined Ac Cas, and towers out amongst it in the channel. Even an anvil. These are showing radar returns too, but haven't been picked up by any of the high-res models that I can see. 

[Guest]

Can see some towering Cu out in the channel from Bognor currently. Quite unexpected. 

[A Face like Thunder]

The lunchtime weather forecast on the BBC seemed to be dismissive of much storm activity. Possibilities for the SW and a few heavy showers further north, but nothing more as the temperatures take a dive.

[ChannelThunder]

7 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

The lunchtime weather forecast on the BBC seemed to be dismissive of much storm activity. Possibilities for the SW and a few heavy showers further north, but nothing more as the temperatures take a dive.

Surely there's got to be something, somewhere. I'll await the inputs from our more knowledgeable posters over the next couple of days, but this surface chart alone screams summer storms at least somewhere. 

[mike5900]

Looks like a strike near Plymouth. Rain on radar.

[ChannelThunder]

Yep, a weak storm in Cornwall and some further radar returns fairly near to it. Looks like some of this mid-level instability around today has gone pop.

[Cornishdave]

2 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Yep, a weak storm in Cornwall and some further radar returns fairly near to it. Looks like some of this mid-level instability around today has gone pop.

Yes there’s some good looking instability here in Exeter looking towards Dartmoor and Torbay, a pleasant surprise 

[alexisj9]

You lucky peeps in the SW, remember to send it here in a few days, although I would not mind a storm right now.

[AWD]

15z UKV not showing much of note regarding any convective activity on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Tuesday sees some instability and activity over the far SW in the morning;

Then further instability brings some isolated showers/storms over Northern England later on Tuesday, perhaps filtering down into parts of Wales and the West Country too;

Then on into the evening, we get some signs of something over the south and east;

Doesn't appear to translate into anything of note though. 

Wednesday shows a bit more interest, but that's a good few days off yet so not worth much evaluation at this stage;

 

[ChannelThunder]

Sorry about the crappy mobile pics, but we've got some glorious evening convective skies incoming. Not used to these coming from the west and not the south!

[Southern Storm]

8 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Sorry about the crappy mobile pics, but we've got some glorious evening convective skies incoming. Not used to these coming from the west and not the south!

This was taken about 20 minutes ago, nice suprise if nothing else 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Southern Storm

[AnvilCrawlers]

Got them here aswel 

[ChannelThunder]

With a little nocturnal cooling later, I wonder if these cells could produce some sparks?

[camturbo]

13 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

With a little nocturnal cooling later, I wonder if these cells could produce some sparks?

Possibility time will tell

[MP-R]

Some good mid level instability around this evening! Didn’t expect this today.

[camturbo]

Thunder heard

[offerman]

Im sure i can hear some distant rumbles 

[ChannelThunder]

Blitz picked up those Somerset sferics but has now seemingly deleted them!

[The Tall Weatherman]

Confirmed thunder from some little elevated storms !

[mike5900]

Yes lightning on blitzortung.org.

[camturbo]

Yep saw one flash right across the sky heard nothing since though 

[AnvilCrawlers]

Just taken.

[staplehurst]

Yeovilton reporting a cloud base of 15,000ft which fits expectations from model soundings. We discussed this potential in our internal morning briefing on Friday - these are being generated from a fairly shallow layer in the mid-levels above the hot, dry airmass that's advecting slowly northeastwards over the next 48 hours. Much of the rain will likely evaporate before reaching the ground given such high bases and hot/dry air beneath. Would not be surprised to see further 'random' showers pop up periodically between now and Tuesday morning above the EML, before the main focus shifts to the cold front advancing from the SW etc.

[Derecho]

Very surprised to see some thundery showers in the SW at the moment. What will the risk be over the next 2 days?

Even if storms do develop, I don't think they will be scuppering records given how widespread this intense heat is!

[ModestMention]

One here too: