Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, jake44 said:

 pooping up

Sorry but I am 15, just got to highlight this.

Anyway...

A lot of waiting involved in this situation as to what happens.

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry but I am 15, just got to highlight this.

Anyway...

A lot of waiting involved in this situation as to what happens.

yeah true

[Jamie M]

Let's hope it doesn't all go up in flames as soon as it hits that water

[SilverWolf]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry but I am 15, just got to highlight this.

 

I’m 46 and would of if you hadn’t! 

[Supacell]

So, I am considering my first chase of 2022. And those of you that know me also know I am willing to risk long distances to an almost 'I think I need help' level . This occasion is no different. I have Brighton in my head, I think around there may be a good call for this evening. However, not sure I can make it in time as I'm still at home in Belper (Derbyshire) some 4 hours drive away.

[jake44]

Just now, Jamie M said:

Let's hope it doesn't all go up in flames as soon as it hits that water

thats what im thinking the sea is cold this time of year hope this dont kill it

2 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

I’m 46 and would of if you hadn’t! 

yeah sorry about that spelling mistake lol

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Stabilo19 said:

Thick cloud with almost frontal-like rainfall and an easterly wind across the south now. History tells us our storm chances are close to zero, unless you live in Kent! 

We didn't get that rain, well an hour much earlier in the day may be.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, jake44 said:

thats what im thinking the sea is cold this time of year hope this dont kill it

The sea temperature has nothing to do with the storms we may or may not see. They would be from the 850mb level and unaffected by ssts. 

[Allseasons-Si]

This looks like a....

nail biting stuff 

@Supacelli think you will just have the time if you leave now,go with your gut,...you always do,good luck

[SilverWolf]

3 minutes ago, jake44 said:

 

yeah sorry about that spelling mistake lol

No need to apologise, that’s the second one I’ve seen today and it’s made me laugh twice! All good…. 

[jake44]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

The sea temperature has nothing to do with the storms we may or may not see. They would be from the 850mb level and unaffected by ssts. 

interesting well thats something i did not know lol

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

The sea temperature has nothing to do with the storms we may or may not see. They would be from the 850mb level and unaffected by ssts. 

If I had a quid for every time this has been (correctly) pointed out in this thread since yesterday.....
 

[Supacell]

Thanks @Allseasons-si. It's never a dead cert when chasing in the UK. Always a gamble.

[tomp456]

5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

So, I am considering my first chase of 2022. And those of you that know me also know I am willing to risk long distances to an almost 'I think I need help' level . This occasion is no different. I have Brighton in my head, I think around there may be a good call for this evening. However, not sure I can make it in time as I'm still at home in Belper (Derbyshire) some 4 hours drive away.

Depending on what happens later, I may pop down to worthing pier [near brighton]

Don't anticipate anything on the level of June 2019.....but who knows these days

[staplehurst]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

If I had a quid for every time this has been (correctly) pointed out in this thread since yesterday.....
 

You could afford a tank of fuel to go chasing 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

If I had a quid for every time this has been (correctly) pointed out in this thread since yesterday.....
 

Share it out we can all become millionaires that way 

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

You could afford a tank of fuel to go chasing 

whats your thoughts @staplehurst on tonight then mate

[jake44]

love thunderstorms i do hope this gets us at least some lightning i live in ramsgate so im right on the edge hope to get some good pics of lightning later

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

Thanks @Allseasons-si. It's never a dead cert when chasing in the UK. Always a gamble.

Very true and surprises also pop up without warning too,S channel islands popping off now

i think anywhere in this circle(clear sector on sat) has the chance to produce some good storms.

[Harry]

17 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Sorry but I am 15, just got to highlight this.

Anyway...

A lot of waiting involved in this situation as to what happens.

I spotted that and giggled…I’m 35

[jake44]

Just now, Harry said:

I spotted that and giggled…I’m 35

well im glad im making your day guys haha

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Depending on what happens later, I may pop down to worthing pier [near brighton]

Don't anticipate anything on the level of June 2019.....but who knows these days

Congrats @tomp456 for spelling ‘pop’ correctly

[staplehurst]

1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

whats your thoughts @staplehurst on tonight then mate

it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. CAM (convection allowing models) have been, generally, killing any surface-based storms once they start to cross the Channel - for some reason in the model world they struggle to become rooted above the boundary layer. There's also a fairly strong suggestion of cold pool development, with a broad/expanding precip shield and all the active storms on the bowing out eastern side (plus very strong gusty winds). At the same time, on the western periphery of the precip shield you can get convergence that aids a few storms far to the west too. So I guess it's possible you end up with one zone that's ever-shifting to the east on the eastern flank (aiming for SE Kent or even just staying in France), a broad area of (boring) rain, and then other cells on the western edge of the rain. 

That said, there's also a reasonable signal in model guidance for elevated storms to erupt around 6-8pm onwards over the mid Channel/Cherbourg area and these may have a better chance of surviving given their origins/inflow level and would probably head into West+East Sussex.

These events rarely follow model guidance so will be interesting to see how the evening pans out...

[jake44]

Just now, Harry said:

Congrats @tomp456 for spelling ‘pop’ correctly

haha guys i made the pooping up glad your all liking this lmao

[ChelseaBill]

Hi, new to this post. been a pretty grey day here with light to moderate rain, Finally looks to be brighting up a bit. Im in the south east coast, so I should be in a decent location for tonights storms (If we get any).