Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Bit jealous, edging ever closer to the coast. I can't imagine how active tomorrow night may be given how tonight has turned out.

[biddie]

It's exactly as forecast coastal areas and Dorset 

[Thunderspotter]

Lightning seems to be moving slightly northeast but very slowly. Perfect for me, but looks like im going to have to wait a while before i can see any activity. 

Any updates from anyone? What have you all spotted so far? I'm still waiting..... Pulled an all nighter just to find some atorms preduxted for 5am... I could of set an alarm lol.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Lightning Lover 06
Adding information

[matt111]

17 minutes ago, Lightning Lover 06 said:

Lightning seems to be moving slightly northeast but very slowly. Perfect for me, but looks like im going to have to wait a while before i can see any activity. 

Any updates from anyone? What have you all spotted so far? I'm still waiting..... Pulled an all nighter just to find some atorms preduxted for 5am... I could of set an alarm lol.

Hearing quite a few rumbles here now although most of the lightning is still further out to sea 

[Thunderspotter]

27 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Hearing quite a few rumbles here now although most of the lightning is still further out to sea 

Now it looks like there is a but more activity over the Isle of Wight... Time to move out of bed and take a look!  

[Thunderspotter]

Just witnessed a flash! Starting to kick off over here, finally! 

[Eagle Eye]

Wow, storm will probably decay as it nears here but another decaying storm will be good to photograph based off the one I have at the moment.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[The PIT]

LOL Beeb forecast has the rain moving north west when its moving north east

[Guest]

A new batch of storms has broken out just north of Cherbourg looks like they’ll head towards East Dorset, IOW and West Hants but will they survive? 

[Eagle Eye]

Convective weather forecast is out for today

"

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 May 2022

ISSUED 07:04 UTC Sun 15 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

At 06z Sunday the leading edge of a destabilising 14-16C 850hPa Theta-W plume stretched from mid-Wales across the west and south Midlands to SE England. This will continue to spread gradually northwards through the day, reaching southern Scotland by the evening and expanding into eastern Ireland and the remainder of England and Wales. Elevated convection is ongoing in many areas, most of it relatively weak and lightning-free, with the strongest elevated convection tie to the greatest instability over the English Channel. Pockets of showery rain will continue to lift northwards through the day, with an ongoing risk of a few lightning strikes just about anywhere where stronger convection can develop, but this seems most likely over the English Channel and pushing into some southern counties of England. 

 

Due to a combination of both warm air aloft, having advected from France overnight, and a cooler easterly surface flow forecast profiles are capped to surface-based convection unless temperatures can reach at least the mid 20s Celsius - which seems rather unlikely. The main exception is W / SW Scotland where capping aloft is much weaker, and the easterly surface flow aiding fohn effect to the west of high ground may allow a few heavy showers or weak thunderstorm to develop for a time in the afternoon / early evening, and a low-end SLGT has been introduced.

 

 

Meanwhile, a day of intense heating is anticipated across France with TMax of 25-30C. This is likely to result in a deeply mixed boundary layer, and a gradual eroding of the 850hPa capping inversion. A longwave trough axis associated with a large upper low over the Atlantic will swing northeastwards across Biscay and into northern France by evening. Cooling aloft/lift associated with this will likely aid in deep convection erupting over France by late afternoon and into the evening. Some of this may be surface-based initially, but even with nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer and/or cooler English Channel the substantial warm nose at ~900hPa could also foster elevated convection both over France and also the English Channel. It should be stressed even at this relatively short lead time there is a large amount of uncertainty as to exactly how things will evolve during Sunday evening and night in terms of coverage and location of areas of showery rain and thunderstorms, but there is certainly an increasing risk as the trough continues to migrate northeastwards.

Given the south/southwesterly upper level flow, rain from convection will likely fall to the northwest of storm relative motion, and therefore it is most likely new cell development will occur to the east/southeast where the best supply of unstable air resides. As such, and considering climatology, a corridor from northern France to SE England is most favoured for the greatest lightning coverage and so have tentatively included a MDT. However, the instability axis expands much further west and so it is certainly plausible additional elevated thunderstorms could develop perhaps as far west as E Devon to SE Wales. CAM guidance, albeit inconsistent, has been periodically suggesting rather outflow-dominant storms with cold pools over the English Channel and adjacent portions of France, and wind gusts of 50-60mph. The net result is an expanding rain shield, with new cells building progressively eastwards on the eastern flank. Some marginally-severe hail may be possible from the strongest cells in the vicinity of the English Channel.

 

The instability axis will slowly migrate northeastwards through the night, and so upticks in heavy showers or few thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the night into the Midlands and East Anglia too, possibly Yorkshire towards 06z Monday, but attempting to pinpoint specific areas is rather challenging."

 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

I knew it ! Luckily for me convective weather were saying they think elevated storms continue to pop up in central England through the night! Let’s see how that goes down!

Just saw this! The UKV is on steroids!

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 15TH MAY 2022

Issued 2022-05-15 07:45:05
Valid: 15/05/2022 0600 to 16/05/2022

Forecast Details

Amplified longwave trough will be slow-moving to the west of the British Isles over the N Atlantic on Sunday, with a series of upper shortwave troughs moving north on the eastern flank of the upper trough across western Europe. One upper shortwave trough / vortex is moving north over western Britain / Ireland this morning, engaging the NW edge of the nose of warm/moist plume moving N out of France – bringing some thundery showers / isolated thunderstorms overnight / this morning to southern and western areas. Further heavy showers and some thunderstorms will continue to push across England, Wales, N. Ireland and western Scotland through the morning, as NW edge of theta-w plume moves N, before easing for a time through the afternoon.

Meanwhile, a renewed push of warm and moist air modelled at 850 hPa, with wet-bulb potential temps (theta-w) values of 14C+, will push north out of France into southern Britain today. While another shortwave trough, noted on WV imagery moving N/NE over Iberia this morning, will approach southern Britain by this evening, which will engage and create forced ascent of 850 hPa theta-w plume and also surface instability/CAPE building over northern France. This will likely form an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms, perhaps an arc, along/near the trough axis moving NE from western France across southern Britain this evening, though models are varying and probably struggling on timing and extent of this area forming ahead of the trough as it moves into the south. This area of heavy rain and thunderstorms will then spread north across England and Wales through the evening and overnight, perhaps reaching S Scotland in the early hours, though lightning activity will probably wane as it moves north away from higher elevated instability of theta-w plume towards S England. Further more isolated storms moving NE may clip SE England overnight too. Any thunderstorms may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rainfall leading to flash-flooding, hail and strong wind gusts. No organised severe weather is anticipated though. Greatest probability of lightning central and eastern English Channel and surrounding coastal area of S England.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[ChannelThunder]

Got my storm last night, but not 'til 4am! Lots of flashes and booms around that time at the back edge of those cells that also gave a nice watering to nature.

Now there's the unexpected bonus of two storms just to the south this morning, slowly edging this way. Got a nice view to the south and it's very dark, with very high bases. Classic morning 'plume' look that I've not seen in years!

[Thunderspotter]

Hoping for some activity to track throughout this morning/afternoon - There looks like a bit of a storm is developing above Caen, France. Hopefully all these newer storms survive the channel so they can put on a show of lightning!

[Guest]

 

Ominous, although it looks like it’s lost it’s electrical activity! 

 

[alexisj9]

We'll the rain has reached here from something that was a storm, and more around too. Wonder if any lightning will survive to the far SE coast, lol unlikely till later I think.

[camturbo]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Ominous, although it looks like it’s lost it’s electrical activity! 

 

Great capture,nice cloud structure

[Thunderspotter]

Clouds looking ominous over here too, seems like it's lost it's electrical power...  But it is gradually getting darker, and darker...

[poseidon]

Thunderstorm warnings issued by Met Office for tonight....

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[ChannelThunder]

1 minute ago, poseidon said:

Thunderstorm warnings issued by Met Office for tonight....

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Ah, great. That's put the nail into that particular coffin, then 

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Ah, great. That's put the nail into that particular coffin, then 

Haha - I thought the exact same thing!

[Liam Burge]

Well, the UKV model is definitely not looking as impressive for today as it was yesterday. Seems like my area will miss out on most of the action again like yesterday. Hope everyone on the south coast enjoys the light show and thunderstorms tonight.

[ChannelThunder]

Even if I'd got out there with my camera last night, I don't think I'd have beaten this, by fellow Island storm photographer Jamie Russell: https://www.facebook.com/isleofwightradio/photos/a.10153190774660370/10166328814090370

 

 

[Mapantz]

Picked up a fresh lightning detection here..

[Liam Burge]

3 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Even if I'd got out there with my camera last night, I don't think I'd have beaten this, by fellow Island storm photographer Jamie Russell: https://www.facebook.com/isleofwightradio/photos/a.10153190774660370/10166328814090370

 

 

Oh wow. That is simply beautiful.