Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Conditions need to be really favourable to get a storm to survive the cool air over the still warming seas of the Channel.  Enjoy the warm night and maybe save some chasing miles for tomorrow night in the far SE or midweek (if all goes well).

It's early doors yet, lots of plume potential if this set-up remains in place for a while.

 

 

 

These showers/potential storms will be elevated, so whether there's land or sea beneath them is irrelevant to their initial development

[Zak M]

Sunday night on the WRF. Bloody hell...

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Sunday night on the WRF. Bloody hell...

ICON D2 showed something similar when I looked earlier.

[Wivenswold]

7 minutes ago, Lance M said:

These showers/potential storms will be elevated, so whether there's land or sea beneath them is irrelevant to their initial development

Agreed, but it may be relevant to how long they last without the feed of warmer air on land. They may make it tonight but I'm putting some caution out there so people don't complain about this being a "Bust" tonight. As we know some will. 

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Agreed, but it may be relevant to how long they last without the feed of warmer air on land. They may make it tonight but I'm putting some caution out there so people don't complain about this being a "Bust" tonight. As we know some will. 

Yep, there are always going to be one or two who bring that word out when such a marginal outlook leads to nothing, when it was always the most likely case!

@Alderc agreed. Final straw for me with Arome!

[Ben Sainsbury]

26 minutes ago, Wivenswold said:

Agreed, but it may be relevant to how long they last without the feed of warmer air on land. They may make it tonight but I'm putting some caution out there so people don't complain about this being a "Bust" tonight. As we know some will. 

I understand where you're coming from, but I just want to clear this up for others. The storms are initiated at an elevated level in the atmosphere, so these aren't exactly being fueled by warmer air on land, with @Lance M making a good point. They are however being fueled by the warm airmass being advected north at 850hPa. Just a minor difference, but is something people can get wrong sometimes. There is some question how far north this warm airmass will reach etc and whether storms can maintain once moving out of this warmer airmass. 

Edited May 14, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Oh what I would do to be on the small isle of Sark this evening where there is next to no light pollution …. One can dream

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[Guest]

We have drizzle!!! 
 

Based on experience I’d now say the chance of lightning in the Red area is pretty much zero now. 
 

Edited May 14, 2022 by Alderc

[sheikhy]

There aint gona be any storms tonight guys just forget it lol!!!focus on tomorrow night instead and even then it seems a low chance!!!

[Poppybee15]

There could be a thunderstorm tonight maybe cloud to ground lighting flash flooding 

[Ben Sainsbury]

We have a few sferics in the middle of the channel, S of Plymouth. This is where the upper trough is beginning to interact with the Theta-W plume.

Edited May 14, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[liamtellis]

Some rather interesting clouds here in south east Wales this even - feeling a little muggy now too. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Don’t jump the gun ppl. Storm risk is into the night. There will be lightning, just not a lot.

tomo is a different story - uncertain yes but more chances of something notable

[sheikhy]

If you like storms then latest ukv 15z looks a lot better and storms look more widespread across england for the next few days!!temps in the low to mid twenties as well for england till thursday!!

[ChannelThunder]

Woohoo, sferics! Radar looking better than earlier too, and finally some subtle signs of mid-level instability

[liamtellis]

Well didn't think I'd see a cumulonimbus this evening - must be from those showers in the south west  

[Azazel]

Behold! A sheet of grey approaches from the south! 

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, liamtellis said:

Well didn't think I'd see a cumulonimbus this evening - must be from those showers in the south west  

Wow this is a great capture! Cloud tops don't seem too high as expected.

[LeeKay/]

Not in a while seen excited the run up buzzing forum - hey its like it used to be :)

[Emz by the Thames]

Oooh that lightning map crackle....it's been a while...

Not sure how I feel about any storms tomorrow night as I'll be in a field watching the Happy Mondays in a field at 10pm!

[Gaza43]

I really hope we get some heavy thunderstorms tonight. I really fancy going out for a walk in it. 

[Mapantz]

 

 

I've started my live stream in case anything interesting does arrives here..

 

[ChannelThunder]

A nice little start to things in the western Channel.

[The Tall Weatherman]

The storms are strengthening slowly but surely ! I think they will be full force at the coast! 

[viking_smb]

11 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

What are people's thoughts on the amounts of lightning we can expect?

My feeling is it won't be a particularly strong event, something similar to the 12th of April, but with more that just a couple of flashes off the the south coast, with most if that electrical activity staying mostly on the french side?

Anything better will be a bonus

 

according to dans forecast that area is where the storms will be only. just currently in the window where lightning will be favourable, it will decrease soon.

Edited May 14, 2022 by viking_smb