Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

41 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any charts mate?!

Quite busy this morning and away from PC, but here are a super quick couple of highlights:

[Southern Storm]

5 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Look at the SVR potential for Wednesday evening! Nearly 2000 cape and curved hodographs and storm types edging towards Supercells !

Lots of water to go under the bridge before we get to Wednesday, but that does look very tasty indeed! What area is that for by the way?

Looking at this mornings GFS, it appears that the long wave trough out in the Atlantic has been modeled to have slightly less influence on our weather in the coming days 

And as a result, the warm air mass to our south actually has a decent chance of covering some portion of the UK, as if by magic, we start seeing charts like the ones above 

Hopefully we can see some continuity in the modeling over the next few runs, but equally, I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesdays potential disappears on the next one! 

 

 

 

[RobertH]

1 hour ago, Southern Storm said:

Very happy to be waking up to an improved outlook for later today/early hours of tomorrow, with prospects looking slightly better for western dorset looking at Convective weather's forecast map.

I've just checked the Estofex site, but no forecast has been put out from them, anyone know if they are still active? 

I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days, as the chance of storms will be increasing across western Europe as a whole

Estofex only does Mon-Fri forecasting unless there's an event of enhanced interest. 

[BrickFielder]

Still a tricky forecast to make but it looks an elevated  warm sector wedge rides up over the cool surface layer. Forecast SkewT suggests a limited amount of instability in the south west before that wanes as the cooler upper vortex air moves away.

Looks as if it could go either way and if it happened during daylight then I would be a touch concerned.

 

Forecast cloud patterns almost suggest an upper low overriding the high pressure surface conditions with a trough in the warm sector. It could just be I am struggling to figure this one out.

 

I feel Mondays potential will be a lot easier to understand.

[The Tall Weatherman]

44 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Lots of water to go under the bridge before we get to Wednesday, but that does look very tasty indeed! What area is that for by the way?

Looking at this mornings GFS, it appears that the long wave trough out in the Atlantic has been modeled to have slightly less influence on our weather in the coming days 

And as a result, the warm air mass to our south actually has a decent chance of covering some portion of the UK, as if by magic, we start seeing charts like the ones above 

Hopefully we can see some continuity in the modeling over the next few runs, but equally, I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesdays potential disappears on the next one! 

 

 

 

Thanks for asking! Central Britain looks the target but you know this is in 4 days so don’t put hopes to high! But I have to say I have never seen May models like that before, I would see these models in the USA especially when you look at the Supercell composite and that Cape!

[Mapantz]

11 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Thanks for asking! Central Britain looks the target but you know this is in 4 days so don’t put hopes to high! But I have to say I have never seen May models like that before, I would see these models in the USA especially when you look at the Supercell composite and that Cape!

GFS has a tendency to go silly with dew points, and it ends up with crazy convective parameters. Those charts are fairly common.

[The Tall Weatherman]

15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

GFS has a tendency to go silly with dew points, and it ends up with crazy convective parameters. Those charts are fairly common.

I know ! Their just nice to look at!

[ChannelThunder]

Now we're into the afternoon, I'll be on the lookout for my trusty old friend Altocumulus Catellanus for signs of the mid-level instability we'll be needing for tonight. Going by the Satellite, I've got another hour or two of clear blue skies first, then a wave of Cirrus, before getting to the point of any castles appearing in the sky...

 

Edited May 14, 2022 by Lance M

[pinball wizard]

First signs of action showing on the radar over Brest. Touch paper lit all being well

[ChannelThunder]

9 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

First signs of action showing on the radar over Brest. Touch paper lit all being well

Yep, Arome picked this up time and location wise. Developments will track basically directly northeastwards, so Brest is exactly where we* want to see things beginning.

 

*Those of us in CS Eng!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I wouldn’t all get too excited. Everything I see indicates the activity offshore, then only rain with minimal lightning making it into southernmost areas, and diminishing as it moves north.

UKWW not making a big fuss

CW suggesting only low risk over land

Ventusky as usual is on drugs and doesn’t seem to work. When it does show anything it’s just rain

 

just saying it how it is

[pinball wizard]

5 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Yep, Arome picked this up time and location wise. Developments will track basically directly northeastwards, so Brest is exactly where we* want to see things beginning.

 

*Those of us in CS Eng!

Think IoW/coastal Dorset are best placed to see lightning tonight if there's any.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I wouldn’t all get too excited. Everything I see indicates the activity offshore, then only rain with minimal lightning making it into southernmost areas, and diminishing as it moves north.

UKWW not making a big fuss

CW suggesting only low risk over land

Ventusky as usual is on drugs and doesn’t seem to work. When it does show anything it’s just rain

 

just saying it how it is

We’ve had much more favourable looking situations than have barely limped into southern England as light/moderate rain in the past year or so. Will surprised to see this being any different. Still radar will tell the story. 

[Met.]

Probably be lots of Cumulonimbus Extinctus, rather than Cumulonimbus Incus, for most.

[Southern Storm]

BBC outlook for this evening is for showers, with the odd rumble of thunder

Sounds about right to me 

I will probably head out to my usual spot Anyway, and camp in the the car just in case 

Tomorrow night isn't looking fabulous for my area either, and will likely miss the Lunar eclipse due to cloud 

Edited May 14, 2022 by Southern Storm

[Paul]

While we wait for some UK based storm action, here's the latest from the USA storm chase

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Thundershine said:

Probably be lots of Cumulonimbus Extinctus, rather than Cumulonimbus Incus, for most.

Cumulononebust

Edited May 14, 2022 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Mapantz]

Estofex have a forecast out

[StormLoser]

I'm not expecting much in the Reigate area tonight. There's still a solid high pressure ramp to the east and my gauge is staying pretty steady. So it's a very dry situation, and clear skies out here in the wild east. 

It would be nice to have some rain, but maybe Sunday or next week.

For those of you who see stuff - enjoy!

[Guest]

First of this evenings drizzle showing up on radar. 
 

That is not the radar signature that develops into anything thundery. 

 

[Azazel]

Seeing as whenever storms are nailed on for my region and they never happen, I’m going to go for tonight being the most insane direct hit since the mid 90s.

[ChannelThunder]

Arome has now completely given up on tonight, as many of us seem to have done too. It was always clutching at straws with most of the ingredients present but not strong enough instability. 

[Wivenswold]

Conditions need to be really favourable to get a storm to survive the cool air over the still warming seas of the Channel.  Enjoy the warm night and maybe save some chasing miles for tomorrow night in the far SE or midweek (if all goes well).

It's early doors yet, lots of plume potential if this set-up remains in place for a while.

 

 

 

[BrickFielder]

Just an outside chance that low level wind convergence and outflow boundary convection can root into the boundary layer between 7am and 9am tomorrow morning. Instability is weak and driving factors for storms are drying up at that time , but you could in theory get a weak tornado from such a scenario.  Worth mentioning but I am not convinced (low probability) and some where like Evesham or mid wales might be places to watch.

Satellite suggest the biggest storms over the Bay of Biscay are likely to end up as more of a Kent clipper, but it may be worth watching closely developments now over Northern Portugal which would possibly create a storm threat for the early hours of the morning for the UK.

 

I am not seeing developments in the areas you work like for a convincing storm risk for tonight. Channel Islands might be the best place to see lightning.

Edited May 14, 2022 by BrickFielder

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Arome has now completely given up on tonight, as many of us seem to have done too. It was always clutching at straws with most of the ingredients present but not strong enough instability. 

To be honest Arome is becoming a bit of a joke.