Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[BrickFielder]

Forecast SkewTs for the UK Saturday night do not look convective, there is however moisture at all levels suggesting deep cloud.

Looking at the precipitation forecasts it looks like we have destabilisation towards Spain and out in the Bay of Biscay possibly from the remains of some upper level troughing. How electrically active the suggested imports will be is open to question. We still have the disconnect between upper and very low level winds along with lowish dewpoints which means we are not in a classic storm scenario. Neither does this look like a typical Spanish plume destabilizing in the upper levels (upper lapse rates look limited) even though it has similarities. Elevated moisture advection and an upper trigger look key.

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I think it's safe to say that the AROME is keen on this (Saturday night). A very loud and late night to be had in the Dorset-IOW area according to its 12z run, but we've all seen how it likes to over-do these situations!

I find myself tending to ignore Arome now, it’s been extremely poor recently in these situations recently blowing things out of proportions.

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I find myself tending to ignore Arome now, it’s been extremely poor recently in these situations recently blowing things out of proportions.

Overmixing of dewpoints I suspect. In my opinion,ICON is always best, then maybe the ARPEGE.

[sheikhy]

Ecm has saturday nights activity further west as well!!

[ChannelThunder]

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-05-14

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-05-15

Convective Weather outlooks are out for the next two days.

[The PIT]

8 minutes ago, Lance M said:

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-05-14

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-05-15

Convective Weather outlooks are out for the next two days.

Looks like a fairly tame show overall with only a very small chance of the odd flash of lightning.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Just want to say to the people that want storms that these forecasts do change as we all know from past events. Do not plan events based on this, just make sure to check tomorrow and Sunday.

[NUT]

35 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Just want to say to the people that want storms that these forecasts do change as we all know from past events. Do not plan events based on this, just make sure to check tomorrow and Sunday.

Don't take the maps quite literaly

[viking_smb]

i consider dan (staplehurst) to be quite accurate in his forecasts 

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

i consider dan (staplehurst) to be quite accurate in his forecasts 

Yeah Dan is the best in the business. Exceptional knowledge of the physics behind convection and just great at forecasting. Some of the verification on his forecasts are remarkable.

[ChannelThunder]

High Res models look fairly encouraging to me, and Dan's expanded the slight and its edge just about clips this little rock I live on now!

Edited May 14, 2022 by Lance M

[The Tall Weatherman]

Yes, I knew they would increase the risk ! Hopefully it extends into further Britain later but I am just worried the storms will die as soon as they reach the mainland because of the lower shear. 

*UPDATE* 

Hopefully Nick is spot on

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Yes, I knew they would increase the risk ! Hopefully it extends into further Britain later but I am just worried the storms will die as soon as they reach the mainland because of the lower shear. 

*UPDATE* 

Hopefully Nick is spot on

That means they would stop over my house

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?  

[Southern Storm]

Very happy to be waking up to an improved outlook for later today/early hours of tomorrow, with prospects looking slightly better for western dorset looking at Convective weather's forecast map.

I've just checked the Estofex site, but no forecast has been put out from them, anyone know if they are still active? 

I guess we'll find out in the next couple of days, as the chance of storms will be increasing across western Europe as a whole

[The Tall Weatherman]

OH MY MOTHER OF PEARL!!  
 

Wednesday looks tasty and Cape past 2000!

[ChannelThunder]

Looking like Dorset will be the spot for first landfall of any storms, if the UKV and Arome are to be trusted. This occurs 10-11pm, with more of the CS getting involved later in the night

[Eagle Eye]

20 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

OH MY MOTHER OF PEARL!!  
 

Wednesday looks tasty and Cape past 2000!

You could say that yes

[sheikhy]

12 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Looking like Dorset will be the spot for first landfall of any storms, if the UKV and Arome are to be trusted. This occurs 10-11pm, with more of the CS getting involved later in the night

Any charts mate?!

[Nick F]

THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 14 MAY 2022

Issued 2022-05-14 07:07:27
Valid: 14/05/2022 0600 - 15/05/2022 0600

Area of high pressure over U.K. today will retreat northeast by Sunday to allow an amplifying upper trough over the Atlantic to make further inroads towards the UK from the west. This will allow an elevated plume of warm and moist air at 850 hPa, with theta-w values of 14C+, to advect north across western Europe as the flow backs - reaching southern England by Sunday.

Scattered heavy showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the ‘nose’ of the plume as it moves up across southern England Saturday night, as an upper vortex moves north across Ireland and western Britain – steepening mid-level lapse rates through differential thermal advection and aiding forced ascent of elevated plume. However, there is still some uncertainty to the extent of destabilisation and thus risk of thunderstorms developing on the NW side of the plume across southern England and south Wales from late evening and overnight.

Elevated heavy showers are forecast develop over the SW approaches of the Atlantic and NW France this evening, as the upper vortex starts to interact with the NW edge of the theta-w plume moving north out of France, these showers initially moving across SW England late evening, then developing and pushing NE further east across S England overnight - while also spreading across Wales and the Midlands. For now, it looks like some isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible amongst these showers, but the risk mainly confined to Channel Islands and southern most counties of England - highest risk SW to CS England. Any thunderstorms may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning along with heavy rainfall leading to localised flash-flooding.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[Southern Storm]

What are people's thoughts on the amounts of lightning we can expect?

My feeling is it won't be a particularly strong event, something similar to the 12th of April, but with more that just a couple of flashes off the the south coast, with most if that electrical activity staying mostly on the french side?

Anything better will be a bonus

 

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

What are people's thoughts on the amounts of lightning we can expect?

My feeling is it won't be a particularly strong event, something similar to the 12th of April, but with more that just a couple of flashes off the the south coast, with most if that electrical activity staying mostly on the french side?

Anything better will be a bonus

 

tbh i think you are right on that, dan is not convinced either by the looks of things. so i will trust his judgment

[The Tall Weatherman]

Look at the SVR potential for Wednesday evening! Nearly 2000 cape and curved hodographs and storm types edging towards Supercells !

[StormLoser]

Thanks for the forecast, Nick. Well, rain is always welcome in the desert formerly known as Surrey. Let's hope we get some of that and anything else is a bonus.

[Wivenswold]

I don't get too excited about French export storms until June, that English Channel and the Thames Estuary are still pretty cold at this time of the year which cuts off fuel for the storms and they often end up as showers or spells of heavy rain (which does at least smell nice this time of the year). However, noting NOAA sea temperature anomalies chart from a few days ago, sea surface temperatures are about 3oC above average so hopefully my 49 summers' experience may count for nothing.  

[Mapantz]

I might live stream my webcam later, just in case.