Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Mark Parsons]

Interesting how the storms aren't making it inland, often the channel kills any storm off but last 24 hrs lightning has been prolific over the sea.....

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If there’s one thing this country excels in during these setups it’s post-rain clag... and there’s plenty of it today. Need that sun to come out - the temperature would skyrocket.

Yes, GFS modelled this several days ago, I posted it and was pretty much laughed at suggesting on Sunday parts would be stuck in the mid teens - yet here we are…..also off course ruins not just today but also the conventive potential.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Happy with today regardless of the cloud, it’s particularly fantastic if you happen to be a plant.

Waiting patiently for tonight but it’s really worth reminding people that the storms probably won’t properly hit us until nearly midnight. There will be lots of activity in the channel but these storms will probably not fully complete their journey before 00:00 so don’t get too disappointed if they decay before reaching your location. Patience is key, the ingreadients in these somewhat complex situations need to be right to keep the storms fuelled and active.

It will be an exciting afternoon/evening to come - hopefully ending in a nice display for many

[ChannelThunder]

DO NOT look at the 9z UKV if you're hoping for storms tonight. Those runs from yesterday evening are feeling like a distant memory.

[diddy1234]

I am a little confused why the Storms are active over the channel.

This time of year the sea temperature is colder so wouldn't the sea kill off the storms as they drift up from France ?

Then the moment these storms hit land in the UK, they die off as the land temperature is warmer.

Edited May 15, 2022 by diddy1234

[Southern Storm]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Happy with today regardless of the cloud, it’s particularly fantastic if you happen to be a plant.

Waiting patiently for tonight but it’s really worth reminding people that the storms probably won’t properly hit us until nearly midnight. There will be lots of activity in the channel but these storms will probably not fully complete their journey before 00:00 so don’t get too disappointed if they decay before reaching your location. Patience is key, the ingreadients in these somewhat complex situations need to be right to keep the storms fuelled and active.

It will be an exciting afternoon/evening to come - hopefully ending in a nice display for many

Agree 100% last night was a slow burner, but was definitely worth the wait

If tonight goes as forecast, then I will extremely happy

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Lance M said:

DO NOT look at the 9z UKV if you're hoping for storms tonight. Those runs from yesterday evening are feeling like a distant memory.

It still looks good to me. Don’t think we’ll get an MCS though, probably heavy thundery rain

[Southern Storm]

4 minutes ago, Lance M said:

DO NOT look at the 9z UKV if you're hoping for storms tonight. Those runs from yesterday evening are feeling like a distant memory.

What is the prognosis? 

Don't tell me the Met office has jinxed it by putting out a warning

[viking_smb]

hopefully i wont get anything as up early in the morning for work and need sleep.

[MP-R]

25 minutes ago, Shaun L said:

Sat in the garden in shorts on the Wirral. Warm breeze and sun, a fantastic sunday afternoon.

Must be a novelty up there.

Enjoy!

[ChannelThunder]

8 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

What is the prognosis? 

Don't tell me the Met office has jinxed it by putting out a warning

Here's one of the good runs from yesterday, showing a line of storms moving into the South this evening, versus the 9z today on which they've completely disappeared!

 

13 minutes ago, diddy1234 said:

I am a little confused why the Storms are active over the channel.

This time of year the sea temperature is colder so wouldn't the sea kill off the storms as they drift up from France ?

Then the moment these storms hit land in the UK, they die off as the land temperature is warmer.

These storms are elevated and feeding off of energy in the mid-levels. There's no need for any kind of energy from the surface for their development  

[Shaun L]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Must be a novelty up there.

Enjoy!

Always get nice weather here. Nicely sheltered bt North Wales

[Guest]

06Z has completely binned overnight storms, just a wave of showers pushing in around 6pm. 

[Southern Storm]

Just now, Lance M said:

Here's one of the good runs from yesterday, showing a line of storms moving into the South this evening, versus the 9z today on which they've completely disappeared!

 

These storms are elevated and feeding off of energy in the mid-levels. There's no need for any kind of energy from the surface for their development  

Ouch, let's hope it's a blip 

It might just be selective memory, but I'm sure I remember some of the hi res models briefly drop storm activity, only for it to return on the next run I couldn't say which though

Guess we'll just have to wait and see

The one thing we can cling to is that, last night was much better than they were showing, at least from my point of view

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

21 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

Ouch, let's hope it's a blip 

It might just be selective memory, but I'm sure I remember some of the hi res models briefly drop storm activity, only for it to return on the next run I couldn't say which though

Guess we'll just have to wait and see

The one thing we can cling to is that, last night was much better than they were showing, at least from my point of view

 

 

Yeah, I seem to remember that happening too! I won't give up all hope for tonight, but it's looking like a long shot. Hopefully we can get a nice clearing (something of one showing other side of the channel on the Satellite) after this clag and leftover rain has passed, and then through the evening I'll be on the lookout for Ac Cas as the sun goes down.

[lottiekent]

Warm air really advection up from France here in the far SE of Kent - despite full cloud cover the temp has risen steadily and it is now 21.8c 

[The Tall Weatherman]

This system was meant to move of east but it’s moving up north and slowly. Luckily it won’t hinder storm development as 1000 Cape was just clocked in northern France with nearly 30 degrees, the cap is eroding quickly and so I think the storm development will be quicker.

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

This system was meant to move of east but it’s moving up north and slowly. Luckily it won’t hinder storm development as 1000 Cape was just clocked in northern France with nearly 30 degrees, the cap is eroding quickly and so I think the storm development will be quicker.

Yep, starting to get more unstable in France, expected to get much more unstable in the next few hours.

Edited May 15, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Harry]

NW France kicking off now 

[Mapantz]

ECM doesn't look great for tonight, either. Wednesday evening looks a bit better.

[Azazel]

Cool, windy and wet here in Hampshire. Does not feel conducive to storms whatsoever. 

[Purplepixii]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Cool, windy and wet here in Hampshire. Does not feel conducive to storms whatsoever. 

Am a bit closer to the coast than you are (also in Hants) and agree it is cool, my weatherstation is showing 14 degrees plus this rain is persistent and heavy. Not sure what tonight will bring.

[Eagle Eye]

Are any of you ever looking forward to the chance of a storm, seriously, there could be 3000 J/KG of CAPE and you would be going on about it being a bust because there's a small capping.

[The Tall Weatherman]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Are any of you ever looking forward to the chance of a storm, seriously, there could be 3000 J/KG of CAPE and you would be going on about it being a bust because there's a small capping.

Love your confidence! At the moment Cape has just past 1000 in northern France and Storms have just exploded near Rennes. Near where I am in central Britain the clouds and the cloud should clear in by this evening and in some places with the next 1 hour.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, diddy1234 said:

I am a little confused why the Storms are active over the channel.

This time of year the sea temperature is colder so wouldn't the sea kill off the storms as they drift up from France ?

Then the moment these storms hit land in the UK, they die off as the land temperature is warmer.

They are up in higher levels, so the sea temp doesn't really effect them.