Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

Warm air really advection up from France here in the far SE of Kent - despite full cloud cover the temp has risen steadily and it is now 21.8c 

Yep, the sun keeps making an appearance, and helping with that.

[Stabilo19]

Thick cloud with almost frontal-like rainfall and an easterly wind across the south now. History tells us our storm chances are close to zero, unless you live in Kent! 

[Eagle Eye]

Storms over France look to be strengthening quickly now 

[Thunderspotter]

Storm in Northern France is really strong at the moment. On lightningmaps.org, the lightning indicators are pooping up everywhere! Hopefully it will only continue to strengthen as it comes to the UK later (maybe).

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Are any of you ever looking forward to the chance of a storm, seriously, there could be 3000 J/KG of CAPE and you would be going on about it being a bust because there's a small capping.

That level of energy is very rarely available in the UK. Needs to be almost a perfect setup. 

[Cain]

In south east wales I’m hoping we will get something but not very hopeful 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Yo dawgs I made a chart for anyone who doesn’t want to look at a weather forecast for tonight’s storms:

 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Alderc said:

That level of energy is very rarely available in the UK. Needs to be almost a perfect setup. 

That wasn't the point though 

[viking_smb]

that big storm in france, i reckon it will be a kent clipper.

[Sam jackson88]

Slowly starting to clear up south of Southampton, hopefully sun heats up the land and raises the temp, fingers crossed for some nice storms tonight

 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

that big storm in france, i reckon it will be a kent clipper.

Hopefully it doesn’t develop too much, we’ve also seen this multiple times, one big French blows up the sends it’s outflow out north westwards and mixes out the atmosphere over the English Channel.

[The Tall Weatherman]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That level of energy is very rarely available in the UK. Needs to be almost a perfect setup. 

Eagle eye referred to the Cape over northern France which causes the storms which will become elevated. Everyone remember Cape is not important for the storms crossing the channel.

[Harry]

5 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Eagle eye referred to the Cape over northern France which causes the storms which will become elevated. Everyone remember Cape is not important for the storms crossing the channel.

My inner pedant just piping up - CAPE is important in the mid levels if the storms have a chance of sustaining electrical activity - surfaced based CAPE as rightly say is not necessary if the storms can sustain in the mid levels away from the surface. Most models have been showing a few hours of mid level CAPE across the SE overnight - but whether we get the non-electrified rain from ongoing storms and the electricity stays on the eastern side (following the moderate zone on the Convective Weather forecast) remains to be seen.

Also worth noting the storms over NW France may not be only storms - more could fire along the line of the trough that’s expected to swing up through the evening and overnight - but it must be stressed most CAPE is towards the SE

[Azazel]

Storm in north France will clip the edge of Kent if it maintains its current trajectory. I just can’t see anything here tonight apart from bursts of heavy rain.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That big French storm taking a bit of a right turn now, as expected. That’ll be gobbling all the energy up too. Not expecting too much now for tonight, apart from the far SE. 
 

[The Tall Weatherman]

20 minutes ago, Harry said:

My inner pedant just piping up - CAPE is important in the mid levels if the storms have a chance of sustaining electrical activity - surfaced based CAPE as rightly say is not necessary if the storms can sustain in the mid levels away from the surface. Most models have been showing a few hours of mid level CAPE across the SE overnight - but whether we get the non-electrified rain from ongoing storms and the electricity stays on the eastern side (following the moderate zone on the Convective Weather forecast) remains to be seen.

Also worth noting the storms over NW France may not be only storms - more could fire along the line of the trough that’s expected to swing up through the evening and overnight - but it must be stressed most CAPE is towards the SE

Yeah I did mean the Surface based variety of Cape is not important for elevated storms. I knew the mid level Cape was there for the SE

Edited May 15, 2022 by The Tall Weatherman

[Guest]

Clearance just coming into southern England, about 4 or 5 hrs too late to do anything at the surface really. However I’m concerned by that big French storm. It’s cloud shield will get dragged north and west 

[lottiekent]

58 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yo dawgs I made a chart for anyone who doesn’t want to look at a weather forecast for tonight’s storms:

 

I shall sit on my roof at 2am, in case the Dungeness tsunami heads this way  

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

That big French storm taking a bit of a right turn now, as expected. That’ll be gobbling all the energy up too. Not expecting too much now for tonight, apart from the far SE. 
 

Looks like new cells possibly (and quickly) developing to the west of the MCS - which is potentially good news

[Allseasons-Si]

30 minutes ago, Harry said:

My inner pedant just piping up - CAPE is important in the mid levels if the storms have a chance of sustaining electrical activity - surfaced based CAPE as rightly say is not necessary if the storms can sustain in the mid levels away from the surface. Most models have been showing a few hours of mid level CAPE across the SE overnight - but whether we get the non-electrified rain from ongoing storms and the electricity stays on the eastern side (following the moderate zone on the Convective Weather forecast) remains to be seen.

Also worth noting the storms over NW France may not be only storms - more could fire along the line of the trough that’s expected to swing up through the evening and overnight - but it must be stressed most CAPE is towards the SE

Some are firing up on the western flank of the MCS now near Rennes.

Edit:we mentioned this at the same time^^ lol.

 

Edited May 15, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[BlueHedgehog074]

Edited May 15, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[SouthLondonCold]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Clearance just coming into southern England, about 4 or 5 hrs too late to do anything at the surface really. However I’m concerned by that big French storm. It’s cloud shield will get dragged north and west 

Yep that's right remember it happening last year, we get stuck under drizzle on the Western flank, killing any storm chances, while all the lightning stays in the channel/over France, hopefully no repeat occurrence!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Hopefully it doesn’t develop too much, we’ve also seen this multiple times, one big French blows up the sends it’s outflow out north westwards and mixes out the atmosphere over the English Channel.

This yes

sucks all the life out of the atmosphere and only the fish get to enjoy the show

[Eagle Eye]

Heavy rain from these storms in Northern France.

 

[jake44]

looks like this storm is blowing up like a balloon with new storms popping up fingers crossed for a good show later tonight in ramsgate

Edited May 15, 2022 by jake44