Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[minus10]

The ecm ens 12z shows that the op is quick in sweeping the heat away with many ens and indeed the mean slower to do so ....

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

The ecm ens 12z shows that the op is quick in sweeping the heat away with many ens and indeed the mean slower to do so ....

By quick you mean a sheer vertical drop in 850s haha  Quite the transition to a cooler airmass!

Edited July 11, 2022 by Steel City Skies

[JayAlmeida]

As others have mentioned the ECM could be setting up a rinse and repeat high at day 10.

HP to our west with another swirling low west of Portugal and I think we can all guess what happens next.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

By quick you mean a sheer vertical drop in 850s haha  Quite the transition to a cooler airmass!

I imagine that is because of the way in which the heat pump low ends up right over the UK at T192 on that op run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

As others have mentioned the ECM could be setting up a rinse and repeat high at day 10.

HP to our west with another swirling low west of Portugal and I think we can all guess what happens next.

Set up looks different to me, more pronounced Scandi trough and heights knocking about at a slightly higher latitude. 

[legion_quest]

It's a shame the charts aren't moving the heat along abit further, if they could get the heat delayed to Wednesday, that's the last day of term in a lot of places, so most schools would likely just close a day early. 

With it being earlier in the week, I suspect a lot of schools will push to stay open to avoid complaints from people like Sir John, who sounds like a right charmer. 

Instead, it seems the heat in the charts is going to break down quite rapidly, just in time for the end of school. Unless I'm reading that entirely wrongly? 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

We had a bit of a technical issue with the 12z mogreps run, but it's in now and will be a bit more timely from here on in, hopefully. What strikes me about it, is how much agreement there is on 850hpa temperatures being 20c or above. 

For London, that's peaking temperatures well, well into the thirties with one or two members closing in on record territory - and this is a 20km global model..

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/mogreps

 

 

Thanks Paul - what tells me the full story is that they have tomorrow's mean temperature at around 28C when everyone is expecting an actual of 32/33C - but Monday week has a mean 4 or 5 degrees higher and several runs higher still. That suggests even the mean wouldn't be far off the UK record.

[Mark wheeler]

40 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Those are surprisingly conservative 2m temperatures for the NAVGEM

A bit sad I know but l decided a couple of years ago to follow the Navgem and its 2m temps. Last year or even the year before when @Man With Beard was doing his daily temperature updates I noticed that all of a sudden the Navgem stopped with its outrageous predictions. TBH I have never seen them since . 

[Norrance]

Model discussion only here please.

[Battleground Snow]

Heat moving in a little quicker compared to the 12z

[January Snowstorm]

18z raises the stakes even further!

Ireland looks record breaking also!

[wayne.1982]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Heat moving in a little quicker compared to the 12z

Look at all that cold bottled up to the north ready to flood south! 

 

Ah...sorry wrong season!

[ShinyDave]

9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Heat moving in a little quicker compared to the 12z

Looks further west as well.

[Mark wheeler]

Not another downgrade . Truly amazing stuff  .

[Don]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Not another downgrade . Truly amazing stuff  .

How is that a downgrade?  Looks pretty hot to me!

[Guest]

Yes the dome of heat getting trapped over the UK by the undercutting low. Record maximum... record minimum following?

Then another very hot Tuesday. Serious stuff.

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, ShinyDave said:

Looks further west as well.

Gets everyone in the end, even the Scots 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Geordiesnow]

Interestingly despite the set up on paper looking better than the 12Z, the temperatures are perhaps a tad lower than one may expect yet despite that it's a better run because the threat of the Atlantic over northern Scotland ruining things is pushed further north like the ECM has shown. 

Things do feel like they are starting to firm up somewhat although the depth of heat is yet to be decided and just how far north it will get. 

[Captain Shortwave]

That Tuesday chart is possibly one of the most deceptive charts I have seen. Low pressure directly over the UK. Yet there is no rain and temperatures still reach the mid or even high thirties.

Before this - 34c on Sunday and 38c on Monday and Tuesday. Even Wednesday remains hot in the south.

Edited July 11, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowy L]

North East England with the potential record breaker on this run.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Relating to the 12z and 18z runs,has anybody else seen,the weather warning out for Sunday from the met office..extreme heat warning

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looks better for nationwide heat on 18z next monday. 36C very widespread with 38C right up the eastern backbone of the UK towards Scarborough. Tuesday looks truly hot , 06am its 28C so i guess another widespread hot day..  

This is going to make August 2003 look like a cool day 

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

How is that a downgrade?  Looks pretty hot to me!

Tongue in cheek sorry , its anything but .

 

[Don]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Tongue in cheek sorry , its anything but .

 

Thought as much! 

[Singularity]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

That Tuesday chart is possibly one of the most deceptive charts I have seen. Low pressure directly over the UK. Yet there is no rain and temperatures still reach the mid or even high thirties.

Before this - 34c on Sunday and 38c on Monday.

Key here is that this is a surface based ‘heat low’ driven by rising air that hasn’t yet aligned with an upper low to uncap the atmosphere and allow more than isolated (but powerful) thunderstorm initiation.

It sits awkwardly between the polar jet to its north and the upper low formerly west of Iberia.

ECM is keener to align the upper low yet even it didn’t produce much rain in the south due to prohibitively dry layers of air.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Singularity
Wrong run moment