Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Wold Topper]

6 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Looks better for nationwide heat on 18z next monday. 36C very widespread with 38C right up the eastern backbone of the UK towards Scarborough. Tuesday looks truly hot , 06am its 28C so i guess another widespread hot day..  

This is going to make August 2003 look like a cool day 

 

 

Scarbados

[ChezWeather]

18z GFS has a minimum temperature of 37c for parts of Yorkshire on Tuesday, unreal 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

18z GFS has a minimum temperature of 37c for parts of Yorkshire on Tuesday, unreal 

I think that's the minimum temperature between 1200 and 1500. On the subject of minimum temperatures though, the record would be broken on Monday night if that GFS came off. 

[Don]

36 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think that's the minimum temperature between 1200 and 1500. On the subject of minimum temperatures though, the record would be broken on Monday night if that GFS came off. 

I think those who have a cellar will be considering setting up their beds down there looking at these charts!

Edited July 11, 2022 by Don

[danm]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Key here is that this is a surface based ‘heat low’ driven by rising air that hasn’t yet aligned with an upper low to uncap the atmosphere and allow more than isolated (but powerful) thunderstorm initiation.

It sits awkwardly between the polar jet to its north and the upper low formerly west of Iberia.

ECM is keener to align the upper low yet even it didn’t produce much rain in the south due to prohibitively dry layers of air.

 

Heat Low - isn’t that what forms annually over the Indian subcontinent during their hot season, which then drives the onshore winds which result in the SW Monsoon? 

When did we last have a heat low form over the UK?

[Don]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Heat Low - isn’t that what forms annually over the Indian subcontinent during their hot season, which then drives the onshore winds which result in the SW Monsoon? 

When did we last have a heat low form over the UK?

Possibly never?  Times are changing.....

[JayAlmeida]

Prefer a red bullseye to the usual green ones we get this time of year  

And bully's special prize...

Edited July 11, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Kentspur]

58 minutes ago, Don said:

I think those who have a cellar will be considering setting up their beds down their looking at these charts!

Living in a new build apartment with no ventilation which is currently still at 29c with the fan being on all-day while inside it was in the 30s id love to just have a garden/House as everyone I know that has an actual house or an older apartment with less insulation ad my place seems to suffer considerably less its like sleeping in an oven here at the best of time I'm worried about my 2little conures for next Sunday/Monday meant to be at 24c rook temp as an ideal though my 2 redfooted torts will be loving life

Edited July 11, 2022 by Kentspur

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

17 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Prefer a red bullseye to the usual green ones we get this time of year  

And bully's special prize...

Lets hope bullys special prize is an air conditioning unit

[MattStoke]

It says something that I looked at the GFS 18z and thought ‘Well, that’s a bit cooler than previous runs’ yet it’s showing 38’C

[Liam Burge]

I know I am late to this but I have been kind of busy today. Anyway, looking at this Amber extreme heat warning and the wording to me seems very extreme. 

'widespread impacts to people and infrastructure'

'Population-wide adverse health effects are likely to be experienced'

'serious illness or danger to life'

To my untrained eye this warning just screams extreme, and looking at the impact matrix it is maxed out in terms of severity. I would be surprised not to see the first ever red extreme heat warning be issued for this as the models get a better grip of what will unfold and the likelihood increases.

[Porto]

From a very quick look at the 00z GFS members, it almost looks like more of the members now believe Tuesday could end up being the hottest day, although the entire period of Sunday-Tuesday is quite hot on all of them.

 

The split between the members purely just seems to be a disagreement of how quickly that low moves in over everything.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Porto

[clark3r]

Morning gfs runs show very hot Monday and Tuesday then staying very warm hot for the rest of the week 

[Guest]

Yep After high 20s on Saturday, Sunday looks 31-33 widely, Monday has consistently been modelled around a 36-38C peak with Tuesday now looking similarly extreme. Even Wednesday is 28-30C over a large area.

That's a long run of high to very high temperatures, unprecedentedly so for some.

[mb018538]

Thankfully ukmo has done away with the rain it showed last night….Sunday still showing a fair bit of cloud, but Monday looks clear as a bell, and will likely be the peak of this heat, and at a dangerous level. Also a chance Tuesday could come in just as hot if the shift away is a slow one. Looks like the threat of something crazy like 41-43c is diminishing, but there’s every chance on current modelling that we will get very close to or break the UK record of 38.7c, and I’d say perhaps more likely than not to see 100f breached yet again. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by mb018538

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Thankfully ukmo has done away with the rain it showed last night….Sunday still showing a fair bit of cloud, but Monday looks clear as a bell, and will likely be the peak of this heat, and at a dangerous level. Looks like the threat of something crazy like 41-43c is diminishing, but there’s every chance on current modelling that we will get very close to or break the UK record of 38.7c, and I’d say perhaps more likely than not to see 100f breached yet again. 

And yet the UKMO has temperatures not even reaching 30’C over the weekend and only up to 32’C next Monday. It’s 2m temperature projections are absolute garbage.

Probably because it has winds coming down from the north which looks the complete opposite to what the pressure pattern should bring. Weird. Unless the laws of physics have changed and air now rotates anti-clockwise round high pressure.

Edited July 12, 2022 by MattStoke

[SunnyPlease]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Would welcome thoughts on reason for the current pressure pattern and expected one for the days ahead. Reading a few posts saying it is attributed to the MJO.. but are conditions any more extreme in the atmospheric base state than usual.. seems that we are seeing a very stubborn pattern . Welcome further thoughts on longer term prognosis for latter part of the month, a return to the conditions of latter June/early July?

Thankfully the ECM and GFS have rather backtracked from the breakdown they showed yesterday. I would rate the odds of a 2018 static pattern of weeks and weeks of settled and warm/hot very low unfortunately (then again, very rare in the UK anyway) but the very good news is that although temps will obviously drop, it should still be quite warm and mostly settled. Thankfully the all too familiar scenario of plume heat followed by usual dross that I worried about is looking less likely now.

[mb018538]

24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And yet the UKMO has temperatures not even reaching 30’C over the weekend and only up to 32’C next Monday. It’s 2m temperature projections are absolute garbage.

Probably because it has winds coming down from the north which looks the complete opposite to what the pressure pattern should bring. Weird. Unless the laws of physics have changed and air now rotates anti-clockwise round high pressure.

UKMO has southerlies on both days?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Porto said:

From a very quick look at the 00z GFS members, it almost looks like more of the members now believe Tuesday could end up being the hottest day, although the entire period of Sunday-Tuesday is quite hot on all of them.

 

The split between the members purely just seems to be a disagreement of how quickly that low moves in over everything.

The gefs maxes for Mon/Tues are around 32 - this likely reflects that some runs clear away the extreme heat by Tuesday and others are hotter Tuesday than Monday with a delayed plume 

24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And yet the UKMO has temperatures not even reaching 30’C over the weekend and only up to 32’C next Monday. It’s 2m temperature projections are absolute garbage.

Probably because it has winds coming down from the north which looks the complete opposite to what the pressure pattern should bring. Weird. Unless the laws of physics have changed and air now rotates anti-clockwise round high pressure.

Can’t see northerlies- looks like mainly a surface flow off the North Sea throughout which probably explains it’s suppressed maxes. 

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO has southerlies on both days?

My eyesight must be going. It looked like northerlies on meteociel until I zoomed in closer  

It’s temperature projections still look weirdly low though.

[SunnyPlease]

Just now, MattStoke said:

My eyesight must be going. It looked like northerlies on meteociel until I zoomed in closer  

It’s temperature projections still look weirdly low though.

Quite typical of the UKMO

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

Thankfully the ECM and GFS have rather backtracked from the breakdown they showed yesterday. I would rate the odds of a 2018 static pattern of weeks and weeks of settled and warm/hot very low unfortunately (then again, very rare in the UK anyway) but the very good news is that although temps will obviously drop, it should still be quite warm and mostly settled. Thankfully the all too familiar scenario of plume heat followed by usual dross that I worried about is looking less likely now.

Ecm isn’t out yet ? 

[mb018538]

6 hours ago, danm said:

Heat Low - isn’t that what forms annually over the Indian subcontinent during their hot season, which then drives the onshore winds which result in the SW Monsoon? 

When did we last have a heat low form over the UK?

It's what you get in areas where it gets insanely hot (SW corner of the USA for example) in summer....and yes they do have a role in driving monsoon patterns. No rain under the heat low though, just weeks of blazing sun.

Edited July 12, 2022 by mb018538

[SunnyPlease]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm isn’t out yet ? 

I mean the most recent run of the ECM and GFS. Both were showing lower pressure and a big absence of warm isotherm on their previous runs. Both have backtracked on that now and high pressure/warm flow is shown on both suites right through the run.

Edited July 12, 2022 by SunnyPlease

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, SunnyPlease said:

I mean the most recent run of the ECM and GFS. Both were showing lower pressure and a big absence of warm isotherm on their previous runs. Both have backtracked on that now and high pressure/warm flow is shown on both suites right through the run.

We’ve seen the past runs veer away from the ridge across the top of the heat low (ignoring the 06/18z). The upcoming ecm op could drift back (unlikely). The current question seems to be how quickly the plume arrives and then how quickly it’s swept away