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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Insane warmth overnight on Monday, many places have mins of 22-24c. It leads to an exceptionally fast warm up in the morning as the plume starts to withdraw into the north sea (32-34c by 9z...which is about 1-2hrs faster than record pace would expect!) 

Monday remains exceptional hot, Tuesday is exceptionally hot morning but cooling during the day for most.

We are very close on that 12z GFS to another 40c run there, another 3hrs slower and you'd have got it.

Given the rest of the output it is a fair shout to judge the GFS as being too progressive... a trait it is known for after all. Adjusting for that, it could well be a 40C run with those temperatures. As others have said though, with the timings it has... what insane overnight minima! 😮 

Noting that the UKMO is less progressive which is unsurprising.

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Tamara
Tamara

These upper air temperature  anomaly chart say it all. The very most intense heat just starting to shift away north eastwards from my location (though still hot) and arriving in the UK to start next w

Tamara
Tamara

The 12z GFS is utterly insane for the UK for Tuesday.   The widespread 40/41/42C values modelled in the afternoon are, genuinely, barely a smidge lower than what the model was suggesting for my locali

Cloud 10
Cloud 10

Dewpoints looking favourable for snow in the South next Tuesday.👍     Could be a bit slushy though.🙃  

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ThundersnowDays Aficionado

ThundersnowDays

Posted
  • Location: Bradford, Wilts - 273ft asl
  • Location: Bradford, Wilts - 273ft asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

The heat on Tuesday morning is actually outrageous, I've never seen a model produce a 34c at 9z. For reference, the July 2019 heatwave was ONLY at 27-28c by that point....were the heat to be 6hrs slower leaving I'd guess it would have been another one of those crazy 41-42c type runs...

the night temperatures beforehand would surely beat the minimum high record of 23.9 at Brighton

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

All about timings on this now the heat is nailed, its going to be powerful for at least one day(which I would personally settle for) for most areas of England especially. if it lasts into Tuesday 40C could well be recorded but the UK record would surely go. Its unprecdented stuff too see this level of hot weather and the remarkable agreement on it(apart from the usual details which you would expect). 

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WheresTheSnow Apprentice

WheresTheSnow

Posted
  • Location: Hemel
  • Location: Hemel
Posted

Mentions of a quicker breakdown on the GFS however it shows high 20’s for most of next week on the 12z? (apart from the NW & parts of the West) Is the breakdown being referred to in relation to the extremely hot temps clearing? 

3F6C72FE-AE2E-42C6-BFBF-C4699D4F47CB.jpeg

3EE3F203-97A5-49E0-B889-F79F323A144B.jpeg

97EF8D93-B0F4-45FA-A39C-EE2AD5BA2F23.jpeg

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Long haul to mild Community Regular

Long haul to mild

Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
Posted (edited)

Still 30/31 degrees in East Anglia / South East on Wednesday on GFS 12Z. Not exactly much relief!

 

 

3A5D01F0-4348-40F0-8043-53809232C9C7.jpeg

Edited by Long haul to mild
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
7 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

the night temperatures beforehand would surely beat the minimum high record of 23.9 at Brighton

London looks like min 25c Tues am on that gfs run 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Very intense again on UKMO 12z 850s..

Screenshot_20220713-174606_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8be72a21c439fe52f098ed2a387678df.jpg

24 deg 850s over se England and north Wales for Tuesday.....🥵

Edited by minus10
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
14 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GEM looks like it produces a 35c for Monday and 37c for Tuesday, but hard to tell looking at the resolution I've got for it.

Seems like the models are actually starting to reheat the plume after a slight cooldown vs earlier runs over the past few days.

40c might start being back on the table if the heat makes it to Tuesday evening.

 

0AD62291-B937-4995-A113-4228FA0483F4.jpeg

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clark3r Community Regular

clark3r

Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing
Posted
4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Very intense again on UKMO 12z 850s..

Screenshot_20220713-174606_Chrome.thumb.jpg.8be72a21c439fe52f098ed2a387678df.jpg

24 deg 850s over se England and north Wales.....🥵

Don’t think many of us will be able to work if this comes in to friction, if no cloud surely 40 will be breached 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

There are certainly some GFS members that support the UKMO solution. Not a majority, but more than the last couple of suites. A few producing maxima of 38c+ so getting back towards the 40c mark being possible.

A freak suite or perhaps the models are trending towards a stronger push of heat early next week.

The UKMO has a raw maximum of 36c on Monday and 38c on Tuesday. This is by far the hottest run from this model.

image.thumb.png.ebc74458dccf246c14198af4cf01b2ad.png   image.thumb.png.5d935c6c5bacb15eccb6ce090cd15ec3.png

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

GFS showing what could happen - everything whisked away a few hours too early. Ultimate troll! Thankfully on its own with that sort of speed. So long as the heat hangs on until 5pm Tuesday, it can do whatever it likes after as far as I’m concerned!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Author
Posted
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS showing what could happen - everything whisked away a few hours too early. Ultimate troll! Thankfully on its own with that sort of speed. So long as the heat hangs on until 5pm Tuesday, it can do whatever it likes after as far as I’m concerned!

Well ‘whisked away’ still means upper 30s for a lot of folk. More than enough. Monday night shows temperatures failing to fall below about 25c for some…

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well ‘whisked away’ still means upper 30s for a lot of folk. More than enough. Monday night shows temperatures failing to fall below about 25c for some…

Yeah I get that…but if we’re ‘all in’, we might as well get the most out of it!

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Well ‘whisked away’ still means upper 30s for a lot of folk. More than enough. Monday night shows temperatures failing to fall below about 25c for some…

Insane minima.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, CoxR said:

image.thumb.png.9feb337f0e7c5cb6b2c120016763b7e4.png

Wow...

Damn. Was just about to post this!

That makes it the UKMO, GFS, ECM (ensembles) and ICON all showing temperatures in the 40s recently, for the first time ever.

UKMO is usually a few degrees too low as well.

Edited by MattStoke
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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoxR said:

image.thumb.png.9feb337f0e7c5cb6b2c120016763b7e4.png

Wow...

England, Wales and Scotland all recording their highest ever temperature based on that chart!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoxR said:

image.thumb.png.9feb337f0e7c5cb6b2c120016763b7e4.png

Wow...

Crikey. Remember this isn’t FI either. It’s 6 days away.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm looking at this chart and I'm wondering too myself...

How does Cornwall managed to escape the worst of it

Front moving NE, all areas cooler by Wed

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm looking at this chart and I'm wondering too myself...

How does Cornwall managed to escape the worst of it

Cornwall is surrounded by the sea.  Never more than a few miles from the coast so you'll never be similar to London and surrounding areas for example.

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, CoxR said:

image.thumb.png.9feb337f0e7c5cb6b2c120016763b7e4.png

Wow...

Lincs into Cambridgeshire...who put those down for the highest temp guess competition ??

Edit..sorry...also part of West Midlands

Edited by minus10
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