Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

UKV 0z with 39’C on Monday. Doesn’t yet run out to Tuesday. Also shows very little cloud.

There's a couple of 40c on there at 3pm around the Cambs area.

There is also a patch of 12% humidity. 5-6c dewpoint at 40c. Remind me where we are again?!?!

Edited July 14, 2022 by mb018538

[Cambrian]

7 degrees here in the early hours, lovely cool night. We might get a similar night tonight and then it might be a fair while before we get anything quite as cool. Minimum close to 19 degrees for mid Wales on Monday night into Tuesday, very warm by then. 

Rising nighttime minima are a big feature of the next few days, providing an increasingly higher baseline as a starting point for the diurnal heating. The 0z GFS ensemble for London picks up from about 15 degrees this coming evening, to around 27 degrees on the op, 24 degrees on the mean, for Monday night into Tuesday.

Something like the op in particular would be stifling. The mean maximum for Monday is around 33 degrees, which is the highest I’ve seen for the GFS. Tuesday night is a bit easier as it breaks down, than back to something much closer to average for the rest of next week. 

Just thought I’d show the ensemble for Stornaway too. The mean maximum for next Tuesday gets past the heady heights of 15 degrees.

What had caught my eye over the last few runs though is the wild deviation of the op, so while the confidence for exceptional temperatures in the south further increases, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the heat, with wide op to mean differences as early as day 3. In fact, even day 1 is a bit of a shocker in that regard. 

[Chris.R]

I agree with @CreweColdearlier. Seems like 850s are upgrading again little by little each run.

I think once high res models like WRF come in range we will see more realistic i.e. higher 2M temps.

my personal guess would be 40.2°C at Hawarden for the UK maximum.

[Radiating Dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I agree with @CreweColdearlier. Seems like 850s are upgrading again little by little each run.

I think once high res models like WRF come in range we will see more realistic i.e. higher 2M temps.

my personal guess would be 40.2°C at Hawarden for the UK maximum.

That would be a 5c lift on the existing Wales temperature record which was also set in Hawarden in 1990 (35.2c). I do not see that happening, maybe around 37c / 38c.

 

I think the temperature record will be somewhere between North London and Lincolnshire, similar to where the existing once was set. Think we could be looking at 40c / 41c by Tuesday.

[Methuselah]

A wee look at the ensembles for Suffolk, which suggest some very uncomfortable days & nights:

    

[Djdazzle]

The shorter range, hi-res models now starting to come into range. As was mentioned earlier, there are a couple of 40C plots on the UKV. ARPEGE etc will be interesting.

@CreweCold has a point in that warning needs to be issued.

[seb]

There doesn’t seem to be much of a cool-down after Tuesday on anything I looked at. Well that’s relative of course but most output seems to indicate little or no rain and mid to high 20s (away from the NW). If this holds then wow - what a summer!

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There's a couple of 40c on there at 3pm around the Cambs area.

There is also a patch of 12% humidity. 5-6c dewpoint at 40c. Remind me where we are again?!?!

Amazingly warm flow on the ukv, ukmo itself has 850hpa temps widely around 24c.

Whats even more interesting is Tuesday starts far warmer so we could see some crazy morning temperatures thar more closely resemble Spain.

I'm increasingly confident of the record falling, especially as we appear to have two bites of the cherry this time round. 40c also seems more than reachable.

[Paul]

It's almost as if we're getting a bit blasé seeing 40c heat on a forecast for the UK at this point. But, now we're into a few days out, and the UKV not the GFS, it's genuinely extraordinary. Not to say it'll definitely happen of course, the fact it's showing at all is seriously eye opening.

And the 850-1000hpa thicknesses are equally as mind (and scale) blowing.

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

There's a couple of 40c on there at 3pm around the Cambs area.

There is also a patch of 12% humidity. 5-6c dewpoint at 40c. Remind me where we are again?!?!

Those low dp’s are just about all I am clinging to ……

[Djdazzle]

The morning temperatures modelled for Tuesday are crazy. It reminds me a bit of July 1st 2015 when it was 34C by 11am. Looks even more extreme than that.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Those low dp’s are just about all I am clinging to ……

The very low due points should help temperatures rise more quickly unlike the more humid airmass from most plume events.

[Porto]

Is there any explanation why the hottest temperatures on quite a few of the models are up towards Lincolnshire? Typically the hottest temps have always been around London/SE, and occasionally a little further north (as we saw with the Cambridge record). But with some models, for example, the UKV, showing up to 40c up there and 36-38c in the south... it seems a little odd. I guess this is cloud related in this situation?

 

EDIT: Okay I realise its not quite Lincolnshire after looking at it again, but the point still stands

Edited July 14, 2022 by Porto
Mistake

[MattStoke]

Updated MOGREPS for London still looking extreme with a sharp fall in upper air temperature Tuesday night.

[Roger J Smith]

The CET record high minimum is 19.5 (20 July 2016), anyone know the UK record high minimum? That could go too. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Methuselah]

Just now, Roger J Smith said:

The CET record high minimum is 19.6 (20 July 2016), anyone know the UK record high minimum? That could go too. 

I think it's 23.9C, from 1990, Roger?

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The CET record high minimum is 19.6 (20 July 2016), anyone know the UK record high minimum? That could go too. 

Everything you need can be found here! 

UK climate extremes

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

UK climate extremes

July's highest minimum is 23.3C, highest ever is 23.9C. I think its very likely this will be beaten based on current model output. UKV doesn't have temps dropping lower than 25-26C Monday night in places.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Updated MOGREPS for London still looking extreme with a sharp fall in upper air temperature Tuesday night.

Monday 35+ runs slightly up to  5 but Tuesday now has 14 out of 17 runs 35+ with 11 of those 37+…… just astonishing 

I’m at peace accepting that it’s just going to be awful so I may as well go all in on records - a couple of degrees isn’t going to make any difference 

Glass half full - there is the chance that Monday falls short as per mogreps and ec with Tuesday seeing the plume depart before we manage to reach record territory ….. couple that with a lack of thorms and I really would be peed off come Wednesday! 

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Monday 35+ runs slightly up to  5 but Tuesday now has 14 out of 17 runs 35+ with 11 of those 37+…… just astonishing 

I’m at peace accepting that it’s just going to be awful so I may as well go all in on records - a couple of degrees isn’t going to make any difference 

Glass half full - there is the chance that Monday falls short as per mogreps and ec with Tuesday seeing the plume depart before we manage to reach record territory ….. couple that with a lack of thorms and I really would be peed off come Wednesday! 

This is what I was saying yesterday. It's going to be bloody hot regardless, so we might as well go all in and see what happens. If it's 37c or 39-40c it's scorching either way. I remember not so long ago people were doubting if the UK could physically achieve 40c. This last week or two has shown everyone that it's certainly possible, and there's a small chance we will all be here to see it in 4-5 days time.

[Paul]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Monday 35+ runs slightly up to  5 but Tuesday now has 14 out of 17 runs 35+ with 11 of those 37+…… just astonishing 

I’m at peace accepting that it’s just going to be awful so I may as well go all in on records - a couple of degrees isn’t going to make any difference 

Glass half full - there is the chance that Monday falls short as per mogreps and ec with Tuesday seeing the plume depart before we manage to reach record territory ….. couple that with a lack of thorms and I really would be peed off come Wednesday! 

What's concerning & extraordinary in equal measure is that the UKV is peaking the heat at 40c ish on Monday currently, whereas the MOGREPS is peaking it in the mid-thirties. On Tuesday, the MOGREPS is up much closer to 40c. You have to wonder what the UKV will show for it when it updates this evening and Tuesday comes into range. 

  

For those who may have missed it a few days back, we now have the MOGREPS and Hir-Res ECM ensembles available on the site:

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/mogreps

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ecmwf-ensembles

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

is it me or is the ECM struggling to get the real hot weather here..looks to be taking just a glance..where as the ukmo gfs is a bit more widespread..the ecm op was top end of pack..the mean is couple degrees cooler

Edited July 14, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[Skullzrulerz]

What Temperatures can we expect for next Monday/Tuesday in Cornwall?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What Temperatures can we expect for next Monday/Tuesday in Cornwall?

Here you go!

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What Temperatures can we expect for next Monday/Tuesday in Cornwall?

my guess would be 27/28c..perhaps 30c...much hotter further east and north

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

is it me or is the ECM struggling to get the real hot weather here..looks to be taking just a glance..where as the ukmo gfs is a bit more widespread..the ecm op was top end of pack..the mean is couple degrees cooler

OP run would be fine as it stays above 20c all day, but the mean declines from 20 down to 18c during Tuesday, so it would be a couple of degrees lower than UKMO, which has higher 850 temps. Maybe skewed by some more aggressive runs that sweep the heat away during daytime hours.