Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[JayAlmeida]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I certainly hope so, Jay. As, thanks to the GFS, I've been able to warn my 88-year-old mother of potential heatwaves approximately 2 weeks before they've happened!

Thats why i love this community.

I am like a proper boffin to my normie friends when the temps and conditions that I predicted (thanks to you guys and the models) randomly 'appear' out of nowhere 3-5 days closer to the time

I have been massively impressed with the GFS this summer especially at the longer ranges. I think it wins the season for me compared to the other models.

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

top right of chart

thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I certainly hope so, Jay. As, thanks to the GFS, I've been able to warn my 88-year-old mother of potential heatwaves approximately 2 weeks before they've happened!

Don't get warning her of a big convective Easterly in January based on a GFS run at T+2wks.

[Don]

38 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Warmer than average down south throughout.  ECMWF suggesting warm weather continues well into September (and yes I know we don't have any clue that far ahead but I just put these model runs up for fun!)

I wonder if tomorrow evening's update will show any changes on the horizon?  I think until the Hurricane season kicks in to gear, the current warm and dry pattern will likely continue?

Edited August 10, 2022 by Don

[PsychedelicTony]

Post wise I'm a novice but I have to point out that 24hrs ago some of the operationals were going for temperatures around 13 or 14c for my location and some further South. (For next Wednesday) 

Today's forecast high was 23c, actual temp was 28c

I've a particular interest in next week as I'm camping at a festival, Powys, Wales. At the moment it's impossible to be certain of conditions. So when the family have asked me about next week, and I think this is a fair enough guess, I said "OK expect some warm. muggy conditions, some warm sunshine, definitely some showers/rain about and perhaps some huge downpours but overall quite warm. 

That's my take on next week in general. It is a breakdown of the current conditions but it is normal UK summer weather.

Edited August 10, 2022 by PsychedelicTony
Clarification

[sheikhy]

Icon further south and west with biscay low at 120 hours!!

[Earthshine]

Long time since we've seen such a stonking ridge across the country!

[winterfreak]

6 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Long time since we've seen such a stonking ridge across the country!

No Rain?

Edited August 10, 2022 by winterfreak

[sheikhy]

Gfs joins icon and takes the biscay low further south again!!monday is even hotter on this run!

[Captain Shortwave]

Back to a shallower system for next Monday

   

As such the hot air isn't mixed out as much. Temperatures as such are not much lower than the weekend coming up.

[richie3846]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Back to a shallower system for next Monday

   

As such the hot air isn't mixed out as much. Temperatures as such are not much lower than the weekend coming up.

Does that take into account for showers and cloud? I wonder if temps could be a little lower because of activity pushing in from the west.

[Captain Shortwave]

6 hours ago, richie3846 said:

Does that take into account for showers and cloud? I wonder if temps could be a little lower because of activity pushing in from the west.

Depends where in the U.K. you are, the 18z showed very little rain on Monday for southern and eastern areas with shower activity further north and west.

The 00z is similar though the airmass is a little cooler.

Showers are more widespread on Tuesday as the upper trough slowly moves east.

[seb]

The 00z GFS keeps the SE effectively dry all week until late Saturday with temps in excess of 25 degrees every day. From Saturday night onwards it goes a bit mad with precipitation amounts in typical GFS FI fashion.

By the end of the run it wants to give many areas in the West 100+ mm of rain with the S & E looking at 40-50mm. However, the large majority of this comes from late Saturday, so is well in FI.

Edited August 11, 2022 by seb

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think we will see alterations from bbc and meto for Monday, with their 25/26 degrees, nearer the time the heat warning will be extended to Monday with temps above 30 degrees

GFS 00Z I have found most accurate of the lot

[KTtom]

Gfs does loose the plot a bit after day 7 with the low deepening over the UK, but the day 7 chart below is being modelled consistantly and was shown on the Mets 10 day forecast as being likely. Note that UKMO brings in a brisk northerly by mid week, not really backed by others....my take, slow easing of the heat from Sunday back to normal values by mid week, scattered heavy showers around but its really late in the week before we see some organised rain sweeping in from the west to all parts.

 

[MattStoke]

10 hours ago, MattStoke said:

GFS had a high of 31°C. The high was 31°C, at 6 different locations.

You really just hope cast a lot.

Turns out yesterday’s top temperature was actually 31.9°C.

GFS, Arpege and UKV have 34°, 33°C and 33°C for today.

Edited August 11, 2022 by MattStoke

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Turns out yesterday’s top temperature was actually 31.9°C.

GFS, Arpege and UKV have 34°, 33°C and 33°C for today.

Yep, so the GFS showing a couple of 32s yesterday was on the money.

GFS and GEM both drop a big old trough over the UK next weekend, and with it finally comes the heavier frontal rain in areas in desperate need. Is it finally on the way folks?

[Methuselah]

9 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't get warning her of a big convective Easterly in January based on a GFS run at T+2wks.

I might have done something like that back in late January 2019. I think it was about 20C a couple of weeks later!

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yep, so the GFS showing a couple of 32s yesterday was on the money.

GFS and GEM both drop a big old trough over the UK next weekend, and with it finally comes the heavier frontal rain in areas in desperate need. Is it finally on the way folks?

Just in time for my holiday, having spent all summer unable to enjoy the warm sunshine due to shin splints, so that is bound to be correct

[bluearmy]

Over the past 24 hours, we see a trend to lift the trough ne rather than it simply wallowing around to our sw and being cut off before it can bring widespread instability and rainfall

I wouldn’t discount another swing back until we’ve seen the 12z runs

so more chance of seeing 10/20mm next week across se quarter of England although still lacking conviction on frontal precip which means no confidence on that being widespread and not localised. The added risk of heavy showery type activity which will cause big run off issues. 

[mb018538]

ECM next Saturday has the low well to the north in comparison. More runs needed!

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just in time for my holiday, having spent all summer unable to enjoy the warm sunshine due to shin splints, so that is bound to be correct

Having said that, the ECM 0z looks to be showing more influence from the Azores high to keep out that low from the north west by the weekend of 20th August. New trend? Would fit in with the forecasts and seasonal model outputs to settle things down and heat things up again for late August.

Edited August 11, 2022 by MattStoke

[davehsug]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just in time for my holiday, having spent all summer unable to enjoy the warm sunshine due to shin splints, so that is bound to be correct

Me too, must be a Stoke thing 

[Mark Smithy]

This could be a month of two starkly contrasting halves. It seems extraordinary right now to contemplate it as we a) have a general tendency to recency bias and b) meteorologically high pressure patterns can be hard to shift. But there's no doubt that the models are now pointing to a significant change:

[sheikhy]

Guys looks like this could be it for the summer!!!after viewing this mornings 00z runs all 3 show much more rainfall and looking quite autumnal actually!!make the most of the dry hot conditions till monday!!summer 2022 its been an absolute pleasure✌❤