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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.cbd20072b17c055f84ad5b2c25c188b2.png
 

GFS 12z…..breakdown? Not for long…

GFS 12z today chalk and cheese from yesterday's at same timeframe.. yesterday it was showing a scandi trough.. equals lots of uncertainty.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Just had a look at the ECM 12z control which followed the op up to day 10 but runs out further on Meteociel.

It ended with another heatwave developing. Wonder if we’ll see this become a trend. Fits in with the seasonal model outlooks.

9A7778D5-2B91-4487-993C-261FA8BA7200.jpeg

2917FD75-672B-48FD-A0C9-CC3560D3B285.jpeg

GFS 12z op not too dissimilar to yesterday’s ECM 12z control.

53A6352F-F0B9-4B25-9449-3D99E64F3AA1.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

After the more unsettled start to the week, a more typical north/south split developing.

image.thumb.png.7b6b53f51fbdf4cdf4889e8a7417f4ad.png  image.thumb.png.b3918b060452e1d6618adb4be32a6c71.png
 

After potentially being cooler midweek, temperatures will bounce back in the south with temperatures returning towards the mid/high twenties. More unsettled and cooler further north. Not overly convinced on conditions turning more unsettled, especially as the ensembles are favouring a rise in pressure towards the final full week of August (pre bank holiday).

06z ens  anomaly

image.thumb.png.7d316678564d44e9e9ede87a65338666.png   image.thumb.png.186e74439d455230641637ef3c1a75d1.png

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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seb Community Regular

seb

Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Posted

Well… let’s see if the ECM sticks to what it was hinting at because the GFS has just followed suit.

It has also further reduced storms/showers along the entire South and half way up the East coast… which again is falling into line with other models.

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viking_smb Community Regular

viking_smb

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
16 minutes ago, seb said:

Well… let’s see if the ECM sticks to what it was hinting at because the GFS has just followed suit.

It has also further reduced storms/showers along the entire South and half way up the East coast… which again is falling into line with other models.

i just had a look now, i think you are right, and it's reducing, i bet by tomorrow or sunday that the reduced storms/showers will be lot less even further for sunday night and monday

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Looks like the GFS was about tight, again.

The rural village of Wiggonholt, West Sussex looks to be the UK’s hottest spot for the second day in a row.

Must be the massive airport they secretly built there Wednesday night ✈️

566F3C2E-1D74-4DC2-BB94-33B93F452BB4.jpeg

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks like the GFS was about tight, again.

The rural village of Wiggonholt, West Sussex looks to be the UK’s hottest spot for the second day in a row.

Must be the massive airport they secretly built there Wednesday night ✈️

566F3C2E-1D74-4DC2-BB94-33B93F452BB4.jpeg

Looks like they must have quickly laid a load of tarmac all around Herstmonceux as well. How else would it be hotter than Heathrow?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like they must have quickly laid a load of tarmac all around Herstmonceux as well. How else would it be hotter than Heathrow?

Ah, but you forgot the flypast!😁

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Well, if GFS and ECM have it right tonight, by next Thursday T144 we are basically looking at an ex-breakdown.  

Edit, maybe a bit in haste there in the case of ECM for the north anyway, but gets to a proper reload of high pressure by T216:

B4D83579-B79B-4EB6-8D5B-FC6ABA841C79.thumb.gif.10c8f4201608f2a7a5548d4f241026d4.gif

Edited by Mike Poole
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Mark Smithy Rising Star

Mark Smithy

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
Posted

12z GFS operational is a drought outlier:

274927489_Screenshot2022-08-12at19_45_01.thumb.png.bfc4bec00a7e4671ac3ff054c7628b22.png

 

Something that's really odd about the operational at the moment is that it doesn't even start in the same place as the rest of its members. It actually begins 2C warmer than the rest.

1846404611_Screenshot2022-08-12at19_45_19.thumb.png.ecbd29cdc16515b06a811a0dcc7737f5.png

No wonder it keeps showing temps that are 2C too high if it can't even get out of the blocks right.

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seb Community Regular

seb

Posted
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
  • Location: Singleton, Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

12z GFS operational is a drought outlier:

274927489_Screenshot2022-08-12at19_45_01.thumb.png.bfc4bec00a7e4671ac3ff054c7628b22.png

 

 

 

 

That’s one bold claim. I guess the same applies to the ECM as well then considering it’s keeping the same strip in the South and half way up the East coast as dry as the GFS.

I refer to data up to next Saturday, just to be clear. What happens afterwards is unclear but the signs currently are as per previous posts from a number of members.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, seb said:

That’s one bold claim. I guess the same applies to the ECM as well then considering it’s keeping the same strip in the South and half way up the East coast as dry as the GFS.

I refer to data up to next Saturday, just to be clear. What happens afterwards is unclear but the signs currently are as per previous posts from a number of members.

Impossible to tell on those charts whether any particular run is an outlier, anyway. Particularly if many runs show no or little rain and the lines overlap.

Edited by MattStoke
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

I don’t think it is really possible for a model to be a dry outlier for a specific location when rainfall is in the form of showers? They could be dry by sheer fluke due to the hit and miss nature of showers.

The ECM shows temperatures to be around a degree higher tomorrow compared to today. So 35c looks likely, I wouldn’t rule out a 36c I guess.

So first things first, the UKMO and ECM stall the boundary between the continental air (warm/hot) and cooler Atlantic air, as such on Tuesday and Wednesday similar locations are show to develop heavy downpours, these appear to be across the Midlands and the north of East Anglia. South and east of this looks drier and of course temperatures will still be decent with a light easterly flow. This all gets shunted east Wednesday night and everyone is in a generally westerlies airmass from Thursday onwards. The ECM does have the jet running further south tonight, so more average than the GFS or of course the 00z ECM run.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

12z GFS operational is a drought outlier:

274927489_Screenshot2022-08-12at19_45_01.thumb.png.bfc4bec00a7e4671ac3ff054c7628b22.png

 

Something that's really odd about the operational at the moment is that it doesn't even start in the same place as the rest of its members. It actually begins 2C warmer than the rest.

1846404611_Screenshot2022-08-12at19_45_19.thumb.png.ecbd29cdc16515b06a811a0dcc7737f5.png

No wonder it keeps showing temps that are 2C too high if it can't even get out of the blocks right.

Still peddling the lie that it’s predicting temperatures too high when it’s been spot on every day this week.

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I don’t think it is really possible for a model to be a dry outlier for a specific location when rainfall is in the form of showers? They could be dry by sheer fluke due to the hit and miss nature of showers.

The ECM shows temperatures to be around a degree higher tomorrow compared to today. So 35c looks likely, I wouldn’t rule out a 36c I guess.

So first things first, the UKMO and ECM stall the boundary between the continental air (warm/hot) and cooler Atlantic air, as such on Tuesday and Wednesday similar locations are show to develop heavy downpours, these appear to be across the Midlands and the north of East Anglia. South and east of this looks drier and of course temperatures will still be decent with a light easterly flow. This all gets shunted east Wednesday night and everyone is in a generally westerlies airmass from Thursday onwards. The ECM does have the jet running further south tonight, so more average than the GFS or of course the 00z ECM run.

We should be in the sweet spot for rain, then!

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted
5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

We should be in the sweet spot for rain, then!

I would tread carefully regarding places that may receive a significant amount of rain. The ECM actually develops showers further south than the UKMO, further south than I thought when the run came out. It remains very warm or even hot too (raw maxima of 28c, so close to 30c across East Anglia before showers become widespread). 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Gfes 12z fair signal for a warm up in the south again between approx 22nd and 28 th...

353554598_ens_image(17).thumb.png.8aad7e41d36c9a2e060c7b3972b4e328.png

Edited by minus10
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
24 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I would tread carefully regarding places that may receive a significant amount of rain. The ECM actually develops showers further south than the UKMO, further south than I thought when the run came out. It remains very warm or even hot too (raw maxima of 28c, so close to 30c across East Anglia before showers become widespread). 

OK, thanks.  What did the 12Z GFS show, in your opinion?  I've read that it basically rubbished the idea of anything more than the odd light passing shower?

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted
4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

OK, thanks.  What did the 12Z GFS show, in your opinion?  I've read that it basically rubbished the idea of anything more than the odd light passing shower?

This marks a nice full circle here;

image.thumb.gif.ed2090941eff43ad0d2845288fd6c81b.gif

Reasonable totals up to Wednesday night. Localised parts of Lincolnshire receive over 2 inches of rain, meanwhile London and Kent get very little. Not much for most of East Anglia either. But that is the nature of the set up. It isn’t a dry outlier, just that rainfall is situated in different spots.

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viking_smb Community Regular

viking_smb

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted (edited)

Synopotic charts had a trough going up the irish sea (long one at 00z monday), but updated one for 00z Monday it is a lot smaller and further south and west, (i.e. southern tip of ireland and further away)

Edited by viking_smb
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

This marks a nice full circle here;

image.thumb.gif.ed2090941eff43ad0d2845288fd6c81b.gif

Reasonable totals up to Wednesday night. Localised parts of Lincolnshire receive over 2 inches of rain, meanwhile London and Kent get very little. Not much for most of East Anglia either. But that is the nature of the set up. It isn’t a dry outlier, just that rainfall is situated in different spots.

Thanks!

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

This marks a nice full circle here;

image.thumb.gif.ed2090941eff43ad0d2845288fd6c81b.gif

Reasonable totals up to Wednesday night. Localised parts of Lincolnshire receive over 2 inches of rain, meanwhile London and Kent get very little. Not much for most of East Anglia either. But that is the nature of the set up. It isn’t a dry outlier, just that rainfall is situated in different spots.

Captain, sorry if this is a dumb question but which part of Meteociel do you get those prec charts for the uk as i cant locate them..many thanks.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Captain, sorry if this is a dumb question but which part of Meteociel do you get those prec charts for the uk as i cant locate them..many thanks.

dumb question too, but what does the x mean on FAX? seems to be over my area

image.thumb.png.e9b87840663b77c92e574630d77421a6.png

 

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