Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Lincs Observation]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Are thunder lovers going to get their fix this week? The ECM shows a thunder threat spanning several days.

Precip and temperature values are to be taken with a pinch of salt IMO. If a lot of convective activity pops up, temperatures could be massively suppressed on any one day, but if the ECM is to believed then taking into account its habit of undershooting maximums, we'll still see nationwide peaks of 27-28C throughout the week. Not exactly a cool-down. That said, raw values for this model are more reliable in cloudy, less settled weather.

Would I be right in saying unlike the heat in July where the air was relatively dry we are in a period now where humidity has risen dramatically.

waking up in the early morning there is much more dew or mist now than a month ago which signals that much more water vapour is present and as such this week could see a better chance of instability due to the heat humidity mix.

 

LO

[MattStoke]

There was odd the GFS run which showed temperatures too high (36-38°C) because it had a slightly stronger northward push of the hot air to our south and showed 20°C 850hpa temperatures into the south. Those runs which got the synoptics correct, which were the vast majority, only ever showed 34-35°C and have been correct.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Once again these signs of improvement are evident on the 6z  mean with a recovery in pressure from the South...thats several runs now and if this trend persists we could be looking at a summary Bank Holiday! More especially areas further South but even an improvement further North with time.

Some may think because I like the Summer conditions I'm posting with a bias and refuse too except any kind of breakdown..Thats not the case it's purely because I don't see it,and I've made these thoughts clear all Summer!.

The reasons? 

1...extensive widespread Heat over iberia and coming out of Africa.

2..The Azores high being more extensive and pulled North than normal.

3.. A wavy and buckling jetstream with little oomph this Year..So I thought all along a very good Summer could be in the offing. 

But I must admit I wasn't expecting such severity of drought!

Have a fine rest of your Weekend.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Lincs Observation said:

Would I be right in saying unlike the heat in July where the air was relatively dry we are in a period now where humidity has risen dramatically.

waking up in the early morning there is much more dew or mist now than a month ago which signals that much more water vapour is present and as such this week could see a better chance of instability due to the heat humidity mix.

 

LO

Yes was out walking this morning and grass was covered in dew at half 9 still. Definitely more humid. 50% humidity.

Edited August 13, 2022 by damianslaw

[MattStoke]

With all that talk about the GFS temperature projections, the UKV has highs of 35°C today and 36°C tomorrow. Actually higher than the GFS.

Edited August 13, 2022 by MattStoke

[Frosty.]

For sure, the Gfs 6z op ends well..on the cusp of september!  

Edited August 13, 2022 by jon snow

[Climate Man]

Just now, jon snow said:

For sure, the Gfs 6z op ends well!  

Karl prefer you in coldie mode. Had enough now!

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For sure, the Gfs 6z op ends well..on the cusp of september!  

[mushymanrob]

34.4c @ 2pm at Charlwood, the daily record (35.6c) could fall.

[Lincs Observation]

15 minutes ago, jon snow said:

For sure, the Gfs 6z op ends well..on the cusp of september!  

There is an upside to this should this scenario play out in relation to the energy crisis, this could per long summer for a few weeks beyond the normal cut off point and will mean no heating required for a little longer, also with less demand prices of fuel may continue to drop. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by Lincs Observation

[mb018538]

3 hours ago, Lincs Observation said:

Would I be right in saying unlike the heat in July where the air was relatively dry we are in a period now where humidity has risen dramatically.

waking up in the early morning there is much more dew or mist now than a month ago which signals that much more water vapour is present and as such this week could see a better chance of instability due to the heat humidity mix.

 

LO

No - today here it’s 34c with a dew point of 8 degrees - which gives 20% humidity. It’s been very dry and not humid again.

Humidity will rise through tomorrow and Monday.

[Lincs Observation]

16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No - today here it’s 34c with a dew point of 8 degrees - which gives 20% humidity. It’s been very dry and not humid again.

Humidity will rise through tomorrow and Monday.

I did say “ this week” not today 🫤 humidity here in the mornings is high at 60% admitted it drops off during the day but that is not going to be the case as we move into next week

Edited August 13, 2022 by Lincs Observation

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quick look at the 6z ens do show those rainfall spikes decreasing again towards the big Holiday period and the rise in pressure is clear to see...only a very small cluster of runs bring a serious decrease in pressure.

Just noticed that slight tweak from Exeter in the 1st part of today's update regarding largely settled towards end of week...the theme for at times very warm conditions is there,and the signs of improvement moving towards months end and into September remains.

This could most definitely mean make the most of any rainfall in the first part of next week because I think away from the NW amounts could be very negligible,and if anything becoming much drier with time.

[Scorcher]

34 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No - today here it’s 34c with a dew point of 8 degrees - which gives 20% humidity. It’s been very dry and not humid again.

Humidity will rise through tomorrow and Monday.

Yes I've actually noticed how low the humidity is- it doesn't feel overly hot in the shade despite being over 30C. Very dry air.

[Frosty.]

Hey guys..I know we need rain!!!..and we are going to get some flash flooding early next week followed by a more changeable period but then late august on the GEFS 6z mean indicates a return to more settled / summery weather?!..my goodness, what an incredible summer ⛈ !..if winter is only quarter / half as good.. it will still be worth waiting for!  

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by jon snow

[summer blizzard]

Can never rule out another hot spell in FI but out to day 10 and the GFS is broadly average for the time of year.

[MattStoke]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Can never rule out another hot spell in FI but out to day 10 and the GFS is broadly average for the time of year.

GFS again really going for a big build in the Azores high during the last week of August. A long way off, of course, but there must be a decent signal there.

Edited August 13, 2022 by MattStoke

[Frosty.]

If anything, the Gfs 12z operational ends even more settled / summery than the 6z!?..but this ties in with Exeter’s current thoughts! ….anyway, some much needed rain 🌧 ⛈ early next week, especially needed across the parched s / se but thereafter, most of any rain brushes across the north and then there’s yet another settled signal!  

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2022 by jon snow

[Sunny76]

On 11/08/2022 at 12:11, MattStoke said:

By ‘we’ you of course mean the south. Areas further north are a long way from drought conditions. There’s been enough rain where I am and it’s been dry here compared to further north and west. I’d quite happily see rain disappear from the outlook up here with a holiday coming up and having been unable to enjoy the summer warmth and sunshine so far due to injury. 
 

Not a fan of posts that speak for the whole of the U.K. and every person when conditions have varied greatly and so do peoples circumstances and preferences.

Yeah, sorry about that mate. We are all guilty of local centric weather.

I wrote off 2021, because the summer was a shambles in the London area and very bleak, but other regions had a decent summer. 

[sheikhy]

Oh boy a much drier set of runs from ecm and gfs this evening!!!!toned down precipitation amounts significantly!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Oh boy a much drier set of runs from ecm and gfs this evening!!!!toned down precipitation amounts significantly!!!

Yes but most important thing is, heat is going, and good riddance, just a big hurdle tomorrow which looks the worst day, rivalling 19th July

still expect it to be a blip, with mega heat from 27th, 35+

[MattStoke]

ECM with the Azores high building in from late next week. Trend continues.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ECM with the Azores high building in from late next week. Trend continues.

That's what I envisage too (though I might be entirely wrong!) -- until that heat-dome gets eroded away, there's really only one way for those Azores Anticyclone bubble thingies to go: across Blighty?

[MattStoke]

Oooh Deja vu (x 3).

Edited August 13, 2022 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oooh Deja vu (x 3).

Aye, I'll try to enjoy cool blip, before mega record breaking heat probably arrives