Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

43 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Flatter picture from ECM with more of an Atlantic influence and more frontal rain I would have thought, looks more akin to UKMO run and supports their forecast for the next 10 days better than the GFS.

 

 

Some warmth much of the time. Particularly in the south, but not as hot as this week. Fronts probably dying out as they push further south. 

Maybe a more significant build of high pressure during the final week of August, but that’s a long way off.

[johnholmes]

A long time since I posted this type of chart, not really been following them either over the past few weeks.

However if this one run is anything to go by then any quick return to blistering heat is very unlikely 6-10 days from now

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Blessed Weather]

On 04/08/2022 at 08:13, Blessed Weather said:

Between yesterday's 12z runs and the overnight 0z runs both GFS and ECM appear to have picked up the same signal and are now forecasting a trough over the UK rather than high pressure at T240. Good agreement between their output for Sunday 14th August. Only one run, but just maybe signs of some welcome rain arriving earlier for the dry south?

ECM 12z yesterday:  This morning's 0z:

GFS 12z yesterday:  This morning's 0z:

I'm posting the above again because I think both ECM and GFS deserve a pat on the back for simultaneously picking up the signal, 10 days ago, for a trough to be pushing into the UK. No stats to back up my opinion, but I think when both major models suddenly switch and produce an almost identical forecast at day 10, in my book it's one to watch. So here's this morning's charts from both models showing the situation by close today:

ECM:  GFS:

As for rainfall, the latest cumulative precip for the next 5 days from both models. Not a huge amount for the parched south, but every little helps:

ECM:  GFS:

Edited August 14, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Typo

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM suite tending to favour a mixed outlook, though very little rain for the south after the thunderstorm risk subsides later this coming week.

Next weekend looks generally westerly, warm at times in the south (Mid twenties).

GFS like the operational suggesting that high pressure will hold more sway.

This becomes more apparent come Sunday as the Azores high builds in more strongly.

The GEFs still signals a more substantial build of heights into the latter stages of August.

Anomalies for day 10 onwards

Edited August 14, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'm posting the above again because I think both ECM and GFS deserve a pat on the back for simultaneously picking up the signal, 10 days ago, for a trough to be pushing into the UK. No stats to back up my opinion, but I think when both major models suddenly switch and produce an almost identical forecast at day 10, in my book it's one to watch. So here's this morning's charts from both models showing the situation by close today:

ECM:  GFS:

As for rainfall, the latest cumulative precip for the next 5 days from both models. Not a huge amount for the parched south, but very little helps:

ECM:  GFS:

Aye, it's good to see solid evidence of model-convergence appearing at last; the idea that any single model is 'king' is fast losing credibility?

[summer blizzard]

Role reversal on the 0z runs Vs the 12z. GFS pumps the high in a little over the week, Euro has something of a trough around the north of the UK.

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM suite tending to favour a mixed outlook, though very little rain for the south after the thunderstorm risk subsides later this coming week.

Next weekend looks generally westerly, warm at times in the south (Mid twenties).

GFS like the operational suggesting that high pressure will hold more sway.

This becomes more apparent come Sunday as the Azores high builds in more strongly.

The GEFs still signals a more substantial build of heights into the latter stages of August.

Anomalies for day 10 onwards

Quite unusual to see high pressure build strong to the NE end of August..

In the meantime, unusually GFS is the less progressive of the models wanting to keep the azores high main player.. ECM more unsettled broadly westerly flow before heights also build in later. Could well be a fine warm end to August, warm, not hot I may add.. 

[davehsug]

48 minutes ago, Never On Topic said:

supposing I don't like the beaches , high 20s , weekends , bank holidays , 30s and Thunderstorms what am I supposed tp dp ?

Why not enjoy the 90% of the rest of the year, that's full of grey skies, wind, (usually) rain and miserable temperatures?

[bluearmy]

B h weekend continues to look good for those making plans - considering it’s two weeks away, the mean heights are notable ….

the current questions on the nwp seem to revolve around when the Azores will next pulse northeast to encompass nw europe - also, a general lift north of euro heat heights is possible without having a large anticyclone in play across us. 

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

B h weekend continues to look good for those making plans - considering it’s two weeks away, the mean heights are notable ….

the current questions on the nwp seem to revolve around when the Azores will next pulse northeast to encompass nw europe - also, a general lift north of euro heat heights is possible without having a large anticyclone in play across us. 

ECM control again showing a more significant build of high pressure around then.

The mean also suggestive of this.

Before then and after early next week’s showery conditions, likely largely dry with some warmth in the south and fronts pushing in from the north but tending to weaken as they push south.

Edited August 14, 2022 by MattStoke

[Captain Shortwave]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Quite unusual to see high pressure build strong to the NE end of August..

In the meantime, unusually GFS is the less progressive of the models wanting to keep the azores high main player.. ECM more unsettled broadly westerly flow before heights also build in later. Could well be a fine warm end to August, warm, not hot I may add.. 

It was only three years ago that we had this.

 

This seems to get forgotten about, given the spike of extreme heat in July, but this was the hottest summer bank holiday on record with all three days recording temperatures in the low thirties. A similar set up this August would likely rescue the summer for northern areas and mark it as a classic in the south.

A long way off though, and the pattern could water down to something more akin to a north/south split.

Edited August 14, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Mark Smithy]

Meanwhile, the ECM looks good for those who would like to see southern England return to being a green and pleasant land  Some much-needed precipitation through the run, with the Azores high being kept at bay to our south-west, allowing an Atlantic flow across the UK:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Meanwhile, the ECM looks good for those who would like to see southern England return to being a green and pleasant land  Some much-needed precipitation through the run, with the Azores high being kept at bay to our south-west, allowing an Atlantic flow across the UK:

Unfortunately the ECM and UKMO have been poor this Summer with precipitation and have wobbled around inconsistently most of the time with overall sypnotics.

Nothing as really changed in my opinion...im sticking with the GFS mean which as consistently for several days showed Heights taking control later next week and beyond..Other models will soon be onboard.

GFS is King this Summer.

Long live the King. Autumn remains on hold.

And I think your having a laugh trying to say a model has performed badly by being a degree or so out with its temperatures...its pretty close to the money yet again.. the fact you constantly bring this up daily tells me your on a wind up! Time to take the needle of that record and replace it with another one...before it wears out.

Edited August 14, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[FetchCB]

27 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Wow the GFS is having a shocker

As a reminder, this is what it was promising us for today and tomorrow:

 

This is what its nowcasting has produced on the last two runs:

 

For those of us who follow the ensembles carefully, it was obvious that there was a problem. For a fortnight the operational has been running around 2C higher than almost all of its ensemble members, even from the get go at each run.

A terrible performance by the GFS.

Scientific moral of this story? GFS is sometimes good on patterns but p-poor on the nitty-gritty. Always follow the Euros first when it comes to details like temperature and precipitation.

“For those of us that follow the ensembles closely“...... Clearly you do not because if you did you would understand that with the GFS and GEFS are not the same. Different resolutions and starting parameters. 

The weather is a chaotic system and that means small changes can and do have profound differences down the line. In this case it is no surprise that GFS changed day to day even within 24 hrs. All models do it.

You seem to be cherry picking parameters to suit your argument that the GFS is drastically faulty. However if you look in my region the forecasted temps that you claim are so wrong are the same that is forecasted by the Met Office today 

The skill of the forecaster is looking at computerised models and interpreting them. They look at ensembles and then determine whether the operational is valid, assess whether known issues within the model may be influencing output and adjust the forecast accordingly.  To be frank, 1 or 2 degrees when a temperature forecast is 36C is neither here more there it is damn hot. 

Honestly you need to make better reasoned arguments backed with proper analysis and cut the use of widely inaccurate language to prove your point. Unless, of course, the purpose of the use of language is to provoke a reaction in which case that is a different matter altogether 

[minus10]

Yes a fairly strong ens signal from both gfs and ecm 0z this morning for a rise in pressure as we head through final week of August..

Interesting from the rain perspective that both gfs and ecm have a spike around the 18th for herts...

This kind of ties in with the meto latest warning for Wednesday...so hears hoping as if we dont get that may not be much more (substantial)rain for the rest of August...

Edited August 14, 2022 by minus10

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

A long time since I posted this type of chart, not really been following them either over the past few weeks.

However if this one run is anything to go by then any quick return to blistering heat is very unlikely 6-10 days from now

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Thats a bit lazy from you John... whilst that may well be true, the 8-14 day chart suggests rising pressure as does the EPS. IMHO its looking likely that after that unsettled spell next weekend conditions will start to settle down again with the suggestion of more warmth/heat building by the Bank Holiday. And with high pressure centred to our East over Europe, then a plume must be within range..

I dont think we have seen the last of the heat this Summer ...

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Thats a bit lazy from you John... whilst that may well be true, the 8-14 day chart suggests rising pressure as does the EPS. IMHO its looking likely that after that unsettled spell next weekend conditions will start to settle down again with the suggestion of more warmth/heat building by the Bank Holiday. And with high pressure centred to our East over Europe, then a plume must be within range..

I dont think we have seen the last of the heat this Summer ...

Gosh, If i am reading that NOAA chart correct that is a pretty warm if not hot chart.....

[sheikhy]

Gfs 06z even drier for the midlands!only 3 or 4mms of rain up to day 10!!!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

ECM control again showing a more significant build of high pressure around then.

The mean also suggestive of this.

Before then and after early next week’s showery conditions, likely largely dry with some warmth in the south and fronts pushing in from the north but tending to weaken as they push south.

Get ready for the Bank Holiday sizzler headlines.. I'll bank on them appearing, even if doesn't verify.. 

[MattStoke]

15 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Oooh Deja vu (x 3).

And this morning’s GFS 6z for the same time period.

 

Both model suites continuing to hint at a re-build of high pressure during late August.

Edited August 14, 2022 by MattStoke

[minus10]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

And this morning’s GFS 6z for the same time period.

 

Both model suites continuing to hint at a re-build of high pressure during late August.

Quite a build.....

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Gosh, If i am reading that NOAA chart correct that is a pretty warm if not hot chart.....

Yes, its potentially a chart that could lead to heat, even a plume, IF it is proven to be accurate. It could be better though...

[mother nature rocks]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Quite a build.....

 

I spy with my little eye a potential heat pump due west of Portugal It can’t happen again surely???? 

Waiting for Jon Snow response

MNR

[tight isobar]

Had- to drop in 1 last time this amazing summer.. and the gift that likely keeps on giving “ to those whom like such “.. enjoy the cool down and some possible storm/ rain activity!.. because the heat is almost BOUND to bounce bk last 3rd.. and perhaps we’ll into September!! Everything now aligned ( and will likely solidify furthermore).. enjoy your day.. no matter ya preference it’s a definiate ciao for now see you when autumn decides to poke its nose in... could be a fare while

Edited August 14, 2022 by tight isobar

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Had- to drop in 1 last time this amazing summer.. and the gift that likely keeps on giving “ to those whom like such “.. enjoy the cool down and some possible storm/ rain activity!.. because the heat is almost BOUND to bounce bk last 3rd.. and perhaps we’ll into September!! Everything now aligned ( and will likely solidify furthermore).. enjoy your day.. no matter ya preference it’s a definiate ciao for now see you when autumn decides to poke its nose in... could be a fare while

I’m a bit disappointed that this post isn’t as cryptic as your normal work