Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Lincs Observation]

38 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

I spy with my little eye a potential heat pump due west of Portugal It can’t happen again surely???? 

Waiting for Jon Snow response

MNR

If this was to materialise then you have to say that this was a historic summer on record, even with the drought, even though temps reached over 40oC. It’s the sheer length of this summer and relative stable temps which will go down in uk weather history.

the question is can it continue well into September? Remember all we are all witness to this phenomenal period in weather history and the consequences of global climate change.

LO

[summer blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

If this was to materialise then you have to say that this was a historic summer on record, even with the drought, even though temps reached over 40oC. It’s the sheer length of this summer and relative stable temps which will go down in uk weather history.

the question is can it continue well into September? Remember all we are all witness to this phenomenal period in weather history and the consequences of global climate change.

LO

I don't agree with that. Summer 2018 for example was basically 3.5 months long in terms of high temperature (25C+). This one is getting on for 2 months even if we only focus further south than here.

It may well be deemed a classic in many areas (indeed August has been notable here) but it's not threatening for length.

[Cambrian]

It’s all getting a bit fraught on Meteociel these days on my iPad, half a centimetre off with my index finger and I could end up buying a pair of platform heels.

If you can avoid the close encounters of the retail kind, all the main models indicating that the flirtation with slightly negative / near neutral heights on the mean anomalies around day 6 is short lived, with a build in heights across the board by day 10. GEM the least keen but still a marked recovery. 

0z ECM / 0z GEM / 6z GFS - day 6

  

Day 10

  

Some good late summer weather in the offing as we head towards the end of August. Of the 10 day means, the ECM perhaps providing the most scope for something plumesque down the line with slightly more definite lower heights setting up around the Azores. It’s always a fine line with lower Atlantic heights, but with the UK and Ireland under that continental wedge of heights, only neutral heights to the west of Iberia and a gentle southerly draw in all three models, along with the kind of summer we’ve had and its propensity for repeated patterns……

[Lincs Observation]

34 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I don't agree with that. Summer 2018 for example was basically 3.5 months long in terms of high temperature (25C+). This one is getting on for 2 months even if we only focus further south than here.

It may well be deemed a classic in many areas (indeed August has been notable here) but it's not threatening for length.

To be fair here in Lincolnshire we had a mild winter with below average rainfall, the spring was warm and as we moved into May we really have not had any appreciable rain since, if we were to move into September on the same theme I think it would be a notable classic. 
 

this is a synopsis of 1976

A period of unusually hot summer weather occurred in the British Isles during the summer of 1976. At the same time, there was a severe drought on the islands of Great Britain and Ireland.[2][3] It was one of the driest, sunniest and warmest summers (June/July/August) in the 20th century, although the summer of 1995is now regarded as the driest. Only a few places registered more than half their average summer rainfall. In the CET record, it was the warmest summer in the series until being surpassed in the 21st century. It was the warmest summer in the Aberdeen area since at least 1864, and the driest summer since 1868 in Glasgow.[4]
 

so for the east this has to beat 1976

 

LO

[Sun dog]

7 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

 

It’s always a fine line with lower Atlantic heights, but with the UK and Ireland under that continental wedge of heights, only neutral heights to the west of Iberia and a gentle southerly draw in all three models, along with the kind of summer we’ve had and its propensity for repeated patterns……

With so much heat bottled up to the south there doesn't appear to be anything to prevent a repeat of the existing pattern. Despite NOAA's forecast no sign of any ex TS injecting energy into a quiet Atlantic.  Hard to see anything other than a repeat with plumes being increasingly restricted to southern areas and more northern areas the occasional deluge.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The 6z mean again goes with its recent trends. So here's how I think things will shape up over the coming days.

1..The week starts very warm and humid with a risk of showers,some places will infact stay dry.

2. Tuesday looks like the shower risk could be more widespread and a storm risk is there for sure.

3. By midweek we probably see fresher and brighter conditions spreading SE with further rain at times further North.

4. Hints of a a settling down yet again with most of any meaningful rain further NW. 

5. High pressure again takes the initiative and temps begin to warm up...Im thinking the next settled spell could be at least a 10 day feature and most of the UK will improve,even further North. Warm even very warm temps look likely and such as been the set up so far this Summer I wouldn't rule out another Hot spell.

5. This won't please everyone if this next spell does come off...rainfall amounts are low and we desperately need it further South,and I wouldn't be suprised to see further spells of summary conditions deeper into September.

The ens show the decrease in rainfall activity and quite a cluster of ens supporting a pressure rise.

Now if we end up with a stuck pattern of snowfall come winter I will be dancing on the ceiling...we are long overdue and weather patterns are becoming increasingly stagnant just lately...im pretty sure AGW is the culprit also..but this could still play into our favour come winter if High Pressure becomes stationary in the right place!

That's enough of me babbling It smells like a cattle market round here with all the barbies going...and its making me pretty darn hungry  

Enjoy folks..you all make this forum a privilege for people like me..

Edited August 14, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The 6z mean again goes with its recent trends. So here's how I think things will shape up over the coming days.

1..The week starts very warm and humid with a risk of showers,some places will infact stay dry.

2. Tuesday looks like the shower risk could be more widespread and a storm risk is there for sure.

3. By midweek we probably see fresher and brighter conditions spreading SE with further rain at times further North.

4. Hints of a a settling down yet again with most of any meaningful rain further NW. 

5. High pressure again takes the initiative and temps begin to warm up...Im thinking the next settled spell could be at least a 10 day feature and most of the UK will improve,even further North. Warm even very warm temps look likely and such as been the set up so far this Summer I wouldn't rule out another Hot spell.

5. This won't please everyone if this next spell does come off...rainfall amounts are low and we desperately need it further South,and I wouldn't be suprised to see further spells of summary conditions deeper into September.

The ens show the decrease in rainfall activity and quite a cluster of ens supporting a pressure rise.

Now if we end up with a stuck pattern of snowfall come winter I will be dancing on the ceiling...we are long overdue and weather patterns are becoming increasingly stagnant just lately...im pretty sure AGW is the culprit also..but this could still play into our favour come winter if High Pressure becomes stationary in the right place!

That's enough of me babbling It smells like a cattle market round here with all the barbies going...and its making me pretty darn hungry  

Enjoy folks..you all make this forum a privilege for people like me..

Seasonal models are showing blocked and dry conditions through autumn and spring. That would probably lead to a quite cold winter. Good for coldies (myself included as I like hot summers but cold winters) but not good for drought conditions or energy bills. There are comparisons between this year and that of 1975, including the triple-dip La Niña that lead to the hot, dry summer of 1976 following a dry winter and spring.

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Seasonal models are showing blocked and dry conditions through autumn and spring. That would probably lead to a quite cold winter. Good for coldies (myself included as I like hot summers but cold winters) but not good for drought conditions or energy bills. There are comparisons between this year and that of 1975, including the triple-dip La Niña that lead to the hot, dry summer of 1976 following a dry winter and spring.

Yes, imagine if this summer was the starter and next summer the main course

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I don't agree with that. Summer 2018 for example was basically 3.5 months long in terms of high temperature (25C+). This one is getting on for 2 months even if we only focus further south than here.

It may well be deemed a classic in many areas (indeed August has been notable here) but it's not threatening for length.

Definitely been warm and dry longer than 2 months. Guess it’s very location dependent though. June here was the sunniest since 1976, dry and pretty warm, July was a stonker and the first half of august has been baking hot too. 
 

Summer 2018 went down the chute after the first week in august, but was amazing because May was very sunny and warm, then followed by an awesome June and July.

2022 (here at least) is second to 2018 now. It’s been that good here.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Seasonal models are showing blocked and dry conditions through autumn and spring. That would probably lead to a quite cold winter. Good for coldies (myself included as I like hot summers but cold winters) but not good for drought conditions or energy bills. There are comparisons between this year and that of 1975, including the triple-dip La Niña that lead to the hot, dry summer of 1976 following a dry winter and spring.

Yes, I have said earlier that in terms of historical analogues from a drought point of view, this year resembles 1975, with the spectre of a repeat next year after a dry winter bringing the awful water shortages of 1976.  

The seasonal models are looking blocked indeed, here the mean 500 hPa height anomalies for December, January and February from the various model suites:

Pick the bones out of that.  Very little from the Atlantic there, the charts are mean over the month and over ensemble members - the first chart is the mean over all models.

And, dry too, here precipitation anomaly for January, just the German model predicting wetter than average.

Source, Copernicus C3S on Meteociel:

Meteociel - Modèles de prévisions saisonnières de 1 à 6 mois de Copernicus C3S

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose les différents modèles de prévisions saisonnières mensuelles de ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO, NCEP, DWD, CMC, ECCC et JMA

 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I have said earlier that in terms of historical analogues from a drought point of view, this year resembles 1975, with the spectre of a repeat next year after a dry winter bringing the awful water shortages of 1976.  

The seasonal models are looking blocked indeed, here the mean 500 hPa height anomalies for December, January and February from the various model suites:

Pick the bones out of that.  Very little from the Atlantic there, the charts are mean over the month and over ensemble members - the first chart is the mean over all models.

And, dry too, here precipitation anomaly for January, just the German model predicting wetter than average.

Source, Copernicus C3S on Meteociel:

Meteociel - Modèles de prévisions saisonnières de 1 à 6 mois de Copernicus C3S

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose les différents modèles de prévisions saisonnières mensuelles de ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO, NCEP, DWD, CMC, ECCC et JMA

 

I do wonder what all of the seasonal models are latching on to that is picking out all this blocking at such long range!

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

The 6z mean again goes with its recent trends. So here's how I think things will shape up over the coming days.

1..The week starts very warm and humid with a risk of showers,some places will infact stay dry.

2. Tuesday looks like the shower risk could be more widespread and a storm risk is there for sure.

3. By midweek we probably see fresher and brighter conditions spreading SE with further rain at times further North.

4. Hints of a a settling down yet again with most of any meaningful rain further NW. 

5. High pressure again takes the initiative and temps begin to warm up...Im thinking the next settled spell could be at least a 10 day feature and most of the UK will improve,even further North. Warm even very warm temps look likely and such as been the set up so far this Summer I wouldn't rule out another Hot spell.

5. This won't please everyone if this next spell does come off...rainfall amounts are low and we desperately need it further South,and I wouldn't be suprised to see further spells of summary conditions deeper into September.

The ens show the decrease in rainfall activity and quite a cluster of ens supporting a pressure rise.

Now if we end up with a stuck pattern of snowfall come winter I will be dancing on the ceiling...we are long overdue and weather patterns are becoming increasingly stagnant just lately...im pretty sure AGW is the culprit also..but this could still play into our favour come winter if High Pressure becomes stationary in the right place!

That's enough of me babbling It smells like a cattle market round here with all the barbies going...and its making me pretty darn hungry  

Enjoy folks..you all make this forum a privilege for people like me..

 It's hot the Gfs mate and remains hot.... Cattle market?  Barbecue?  Where let's celebrate storms 

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I do wonder what all of the seasonal models are latching on to that is picking out all this blocking at such long range!

Sea surface temperatures?  They seem to be suggesting for midwinter, a return to La Niña or continuing ENSO neutral and a negative IOD.  And right now, the North Atlantic looks very warm too:

Edited August 14, 2022 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Certainly a decent 12Z GFS for those that have had enough of this now! looks very westerly, zonal looking, probably won't come off but good riddance heat

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Certainly a decent 12Z GFS for those that have had enough of this now! looks very westerly, zonal looking, probably won't come off but good riddance heat

Unsettled just in time for my holiday having spent all summer unable to enjoy the heat and sunshine due to injury

Its further ahead into the final week of the month where it looks like high pressure may build in though.

[MattStoke]

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I have said earlier that in terms of historical analogues from a drought point of view, this year resembles 1975, with the spectre of a repeat next year after a dry winter bringing the awful water shortages of 1976.  

The seasonal models are looking blocked indeed, here the mean 500 hPa height anomalies for December, January and February from the various model suites:

Pick the bones out of that.  Very little from the Atlantic there, the charts are mean over the month and over ensemble members.

And, dry too, here precipitation anomaly for January, just the German model predicting wetter than average.

Source, Copernicus C3S on Meteociel:

Meteociel - Modèles de prévisions saisonnières de 1 à 6 mois de Copernicus C3S

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose les différents modèles de prévisions saisonnières mensuelles de ECMWF, Meteo-France, UKMO, NCEP, DWD, CMC, ECCC et JMA

 

Add Glosea to that.

Edited August 14, 2022 by MattStoke

[mb018538]

35 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Certainly a decent 12Z GFS for those that have had enough of this now! looks very westerly, zonal looking, probably won't come off but good riddance heat

Not sure I agree with good riddance heat there….the 12z had 28c again by day 8 and stays in the mid to high 20s after then. Looks pretty warm to me still!

[minus10]

Now where have we seen this before ??

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Now where have we seen this before ??

I've never seen anything like it in my life, -10. Maybe it's the coldest September for many a year. Who knows?

[Mike Poole]

Becoming a familiar picture, the resurgence of high pressure, here at the end of the ECM, and the heat marches towards the UK again…

[Earthshine]

Back in the frying pan after a brief respite showing up in a few runs.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Becoming a familiar picture, the resurgence of high pressure, here at the end of the ECM, and the heat marches towards the UK again…

It honestly feels like the more unsettled week coming up could be just a blip before we head back to where we’ve been pretty much all summer. All will become clear in the next 2-3 days.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I would call the next 7 day period as very average towards the North but respectable further South..There will be some rain around but not much further away from the NW. The big standout tonight from Ecm is that build of pressure and yet another plume scenario..this Summer started like waiting for a bus...nothing comes along then boom half a dozen in the next few minutes..I viewed that ECM and kind of said blah blah blah so and so...but come the end it was a definite oooohhlalalaaa.

Edited August 14, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Add Glosea to that.

This looks wrong. There is virtually no low pressure over whole northern hemisphere.

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It honestly feels like the more unsettled week coming up could be just a blip before we head back to where we’ve been pretty much all summer. All will become clear in the next 2-3 days.

It's been the theme of the year so far, long settled spells, temporary unsettled ones which affect the north mostly. 

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

This looks wrong. There is virtually no low pressure over whole northern hemisphere.

It's been the theme of the year so far, long settled spells, temporary unsettled ones which affect the north mostly. 

It’s pressure anomaly over 3 months rather than static, omnipresent areas of high pressure. You could have one month in a particular area which is dominated by low pressure and 2 months dominated by high pressure, giving a positive anomaly overall, for example.