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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
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Paul
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Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

While we face an enjoyable 8 days or so, the Euro by day 10 appears to be subjecting those of us who live for cooler times to a prolonged and subjective nightmare.

image.thumb.png.984e1455b7c0a1d594173fda8416e8af.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While we face an enjoyable 8 days or so, the Euro by day 10 appears to be subjecting those of us who live for cooler times to a prolonged and subjective nightmare.

image.thumb.png.984e1455b7c0a1d594173fda8416e8af.png

GFS same just a few days later, GEM the 'worst' model though is okay

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

High resolution models the UKV, Arome and Arpege don’t give great amounts of rain next week, and all localised. Won’t do much if any for the drought conditions. Just localised flooding where the heaviest showers occur over baked hard ground.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While we face an enjoyable 8 days or so, the Euro by day 10 appears to be subjecting those of us who live for cooler times to a prolonged and subjective nightmare.

image.thumb.png.984e1455b7c0a1d594173fda8416e8af.png

Well, SB, as someone who's always been fond of hot sunny weather, I think that chart you posted looks like purgatory!

Edited by Ed Stone
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
35 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes but most important thing is, heat is going, and good riddance, just a big hurdle tomorrow which looks the worst day, rivalling 19th July

still expect it to be a blip, with mega heat from 27th, 35+

Defo mate!!!agree with you on that one cant wait for it to feel  a bit fresher!!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

ECM is once again, rinse and repeat.

It's getting later in Summer but I would not be surprised if we end up in some September heatwaves at this rate.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted

Just as I thought folks the unsettled spell is slowly but surely getting eroded and very short lived...just like the pattern we have been in for many weeks...Again we see quite strong Heights building back later next week and beyond..Again the lack of mobility and strength to the jet allows Heights to build more robustly and become very stagnant...a theme for many around Europe and beyond this Summer.

What I would say is if the Hurricane season fails to kick off more mobility we could be in big trouble with water shortages.. far worse than current.

These sypnotics could easily span into another several weeks....yes I like the Summer...but I'm usually happy with mid to high 20s tbh...I also love the Winter and I would be happy with ice days! But this at times makes me feel guilty...because whether it's heat and drought or sub zero conditions,many will unfortunately suffer!

So I hope all of you can get through whatever extremes mother nature will inevitably throw at us at an increasing regular period.

So currently we have the Heat...we then have that storm risk but impossible to know who and when gets how much...but the trend again thus evening is for a rebuild of Heights yet again and probably becoming very warm possibly Hot...due too that seriously dry ground.

Whatever happens do take care and try and enjoy yourself whenever possible.

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-240.gif

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

It's all looking a bit, well, you know...

20220813_203408.jpg

Crikey, who was it said God was an Englishman?!😁

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JayAlmeida Aficionado

JayAlmeida

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted
16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Just as I thought folks the unsettled spell is slowly but surely getting eroded and very short lived...just like the pattern we have been in for many weeks...Again we see quite strong Heights building back later next week and beyond..Again the lack of mobility and strength to the jet allows Heights to build more robustly and become very stagnant...a theme for many around Europe and beyond this Summer.

What I would say is if the Hurricane season fails to kick off more mobility we could be in big trouble with water shortages.. far worse than current.

These sypnotics could easily span into another several weeks....yes I like the Summer...but I'm usually happy with mid to high 20s tbh...I also love the Winter and I would be happy with ice days! But this at times makes me feel guilty...because whether it's heat and drought or sub zero conditions,many will unfortunately suffer!

So I hope all of you can get through whatever extremes mother nature will inevitably throw at us at an increasing regular period.

So currently we have the Heat...we then have that storm risk but impossible to know who and when gets how much...but the trend again thus evening is for a rebuild of Heights yet again and probably becoming very warm possibly Hot...due too that seriously dry ground.

Whatever happens do take care and try and enjoy yourself whenever possible.

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-240.gif

You called it a few days ago mate when the GFS was producing horrendously unsettled charts. 

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Well these  pressure gfes dont scream unsettled and cool...

375748454_gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(27).thumb.png.4ca2ab4eb8b8c32c7c87e996e4682440.png

Have to start thinking about a new desert name for the south east..

image.thumb.png.4a33a42ca3ee4657437a622c93100779.png

 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

Omnipresent high continues to lurk to the SW not going anywhere fast... signal for it to migrate NE again after a temporary shift west.. theme of the year really... most likely a shortlived unsettled spell on the cards especially further south before a resurgence of warmth to end August but not on the scale of this spell or mid July.. 

Interested to know longer term signals and what may break us out of the pattern we've been in for so long. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
12 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well these  pressure gfes dont scream unsettled and cool...

375748454_gfs-welwyn-garden-city-g(27).thumb.png.4ca2ab4eb8b8c32c7c87e996e4682440.png

Have to start thinking about a new desert name for the south east..

image.thumb.png.4a33a42ca3ee4657437a622c93100779.png

 

For a wee second there, I thought that was graph of temperature!😱

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snowsummer Aficionado

snowsummer

Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
Posted
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Oooh Deja vu (x 3).

0DD2BB02-12EC-4B81-A9B0-96E8F293BFDE.jpeg

Whats the maximum  temps for south east from set please matt?  ( and should i take a couple of degrees  off  now to save the arguing later lol) thanks

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

Whats the maximum  temps for south east from set please matt?  ( and should i take a couple of degrees  off  now to save the arguing later lol) thanks

Purely from that chart, probably around high twenties but would probably lead to something a bit hotter further ahead.

Going off the various model suite ensembles, I’d say mid to high twenties is currently a decent bet for that time period.

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stodge Accomplished

stodge

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
Posted
50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Omnipresent high continues to lurk to the SW not going anywhere fast... signal for it to migrate NE again after a temporary shift west.. theme of the year really... most likely a shortlived unsettled spell on the cards especially further south before a resurgence of warmth to end August but not on the scale of this spell or mid July.. 

Interested to know longer term signals and what may break us out of the pattern we've been in for so long. 

As we discussed last evening, however, with no real push of tropical energy in sight, the Azores HP oscillates listlessly occasionally throwing a ridge across but we don't get the full migration sometimes experienced as a result of that input of tropical energy.

That means it never really shifts the core to the east allowing a renewed push of hot air from the south so, in a sense, it's always winter but never Christmas for heat fans - warm yes but no final heat burst.

If the energy isn't going to come from the tropics, it'll come from the north over time and that may allow more ridging but it might also begin to suppress the Azores HP back south and west as north and north west Britain come more regularly under an Atlantic influence but it's still August and the summer pattern prevails for now.

The other possibility is the hurricane season will be late but intense with frequent storms getting going from say mid September well into October or perhaps beyond. That would certainly give us an autumn of interest in terms of model watching.

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SnowBear Maestro

SnowBear

Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
Posted
1 hour ago, stodge said:

The other possibility is the hurricane season will be late but intense with frequent storms getting going from say mid September well into October or perhaps beyond. That would certainly give us an autumn of interest in terms of model watching.

Tropical storms are really struggling to get going at the moment. 

None forecast in the next five days in the Atlantic, and a 20% chance a disorganised area of storms in the GoM will form a tropical storm over the next 5 days. 

NOAA forecast an active season, its anything but so far. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Author
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

While we face an enjoyable 8 days or so, the Euro by day 10 appears to be subjecting those of us who live for cooler times to a prolonged and subjective nightmare.

image.thumb.png.984e1455b7c0a1d594173fda8416e8af.png

Look at the positive…another 10 days of shortening days before then. We’re losing close to 4 minutes a day now so that’s 40 minutes of heating down the drain compared to now.

It might end up being very warm but late August sun is relatively tame, comparable to mid-late April.

Edited by CreweCold
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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Look at the positive…another 10 days of shortening days before then. We’re losing close to 4 minutes a day now so that’s 40 minutes of heating down the drain compared to now.

It might end up being very warm but late August sun is relatively tame, comparable to mid-late April.

Ah man i cant wait for the cold frosty crisp conditions to set in🤤🤤!!MY season is approaching together with my pram full of toys crew😈❄❤😍!!!

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted

GFS 0z very much Azores high reloads with a definite sign of a north south divide. Apart from early next weeks hit or miss showers any other rain seems to fizzle out before pushing further SE!! 
 

Looks like this drought issue is going to take its time to sort itself out!!

Let’s hope it does in the autumn and winter but till then let’s enjoy this top draw British summer ☀️🥵☀️
 

MNR

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
42 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

GFS 0z very much Azores high reloads with a definite sign of a north south divide. Apart from early next weeks hit or miss showers any other rain seems to fizzle out before pushing further SE!! 
 

Looks like this drought issue is going to take its time to sort itself out!!

Let’s hope it does in the autumn and winter but till then let’s enjoy this top draw British summer ☀️🥵☀️
 

MNR

A pretty warm run, too, besides a cooler few days mid week.

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Flatter picture from ECM with more of an Atlantic influence and more frontal rain I would have thought, looks more akin to UKMO run and supports their forecast for the next 10 days better than the GFS.

 

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1-1.png

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clark3r Community Regular

clark3r

Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing
Posted

Gfs has loads more warmth, lots more beach weather, high 20s next weekend, then bank holiday weekend we may hit 30 again long way off but summer continues maybe a drop of rain next few days, maybe some thunderstorms for storm lovers, back down to low 20s for a couple of days keeps everyone happy 

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