Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[minus10]

Well just quite incredible...

Back in the heat from Monday 22nd on this gfs 12z run right through to the end...with the 20 deg 850 hugging the south east..

Blocking high building in from the north east...

Low / trough to the south west...familiar?

If this was January we would be staring down the barrel of a severe wintery spell probably....instead of that it is another potential roaster..

It is in line with previous output, particularly ecm and the anomalies referred to yesterday...better hope we get some decent rain guys...although gfs not bringing the weekends low as far south...current bbc/meto forecasts are calling for a wet spell then...gotta hope they are right...🌧🌧

[JayAlmeida]

Massive East/West split on the GFS 12z (that's just England and Wales) max temp differences of around 10-18c most days. 

GFS favored this setup at FI range for the July heatwave and it didn't pan out that way. Some runs had 41c for the SE and 22c for NW England. It ended up being 40.3c (SE) and 36c (NW)

GFS always seems to favor this extreme split only to spread the temps more evenly closer to the time.

Edited August 15, 2022 by JayAlmeida

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

The ECM00 also showed hot air trying to push up from Spain by next Thursday.

I certainly won't be discounting the GFS 12z.

Exactly. While the GFS op will no doubt sit high in its suite, it should not be binned for this reason alone. People have short memories it would seem!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Anyone clock the Daily Mail Headlines regarding flash floods made to sound like a Biblical event! They seem to forget large parts of the country have been dry..The met forecast for my area this morning was heavy frequent showers...Guess what dry bright and warm..Going on the radar there's been no showers for much of the West Midlands all day!

So I would say the bulk of any rain this week with be further North...and with time summary conditions could well return in the run up to Bank Holiday...The Ecm seems to be heading in that direction.

A summary Bank Holiday would be a fitting way to end a superb Summer it has to be Said.

Edited August 15, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[damianslaw]

ECM showing high pressure building again as we approach bank holiday weekend. Warm, possibly very warm, locally hot end to summer 2022, but at this range, too far off to call. Also may not be quite as settled..

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, seb said:

That’s 6 days in excess of 30 degrees, 3 days touching 35. Starting from 24 Aug.

Amazing finish to the month on GFS 12Z, potentially close to 20C CET if that verified and the summer as a whole could possibly be mentioned in the same breath as 1976.

Unlikely, but hasn't the whole summer been?

[Earthshine]

The nuts runs continue to pop up.  There is gonna be a hell of a lot of research on this bonkers summer.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, JayAlmeida said:

Massive East/West split on the GFS 12z (that's just England and Wales) max temp differences of around 10-18c most days. 

GFS favored this setup at FI range for the July heatwave and it didn't pan out that way. Some runs had 41c for the SE and 22c for NW England. It ended up being 40.3c (SE) and 36c (NW)

GFS always seems to favor this extreme split only to spread the temps more evenly closer to the time.

Agreed- most of the models seem to do this. We reached 37.7C in NW England during the July heatwave.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

ECM showing high pressure building again as we approach bank holiday weekend. Warm, possibly very warm, locally hot end to summer 2022, but at this range, too far off to call. Also may not be quite as settled..

looks coolish/okay I thought? not had green colour over us for a bit

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks coolish/okay I thought? not had green colour over us for a bit

Yes initially the high will develop within quite cool Atlantic air, bit once transfers across UK and east we will quickly import warmer continental air. This is what happened with the high just gone.. however, as we are moving into late August, homegrown warmth harder to come by and nights progressively cooler which will prevent chance of exceptional heat, but all depends on cloud amounts and flow, if SE then high temps still very likely.

I am surprised the colder air pooling to the North isn't creating a stronger temp profile north atlantic and fuelling the jet somewhat. 

We may end up with heights retracting west again and pulling down cooler air from the north eventually, possibly frontal features with a bit of bite if pulls far enough, but most probably cool north westerlies and showers.

Edited August 15, 2022 by damianslaw

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

The nuts runs continue to pop up.  There is gonna be a hell of a lot of research on this bonkers summer.

The op was actually an outlier then. Unlike most times people call a run an outlier when it’s not, it’s just at the top or bottom of the pack.

Still the signal for a rise in pressure remains clearly evident.

Edited August 15, 2022 by MattStoke

[Cambrian]

Rather on its own, but worth a mention, the 12z GEM op extends the Atlantic low southeast on Sunday and forms a secondary low over the UK and Ireland by next Monday morning. Sunday afternoon a bit of a howler for parts of Wales and Southwest England, the rain then moving through the Midlands and Southeast England in the evening. A very welcome howler for many to end the weekend if it was to happen. 

    

The op is at the low end for pressure on the GEM ensemble, but by no means on its own, and has the control for company. Unlikely on the face of it when taken with the other models, though the UKMO has developments further south than the ECM and GFS too.

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm gives quite a bit of rain for midlands tomorrow afternoon/night!!gfs and ukv decrease the amounts a lot more!!who will be correct!

[minus10]

I have to say that i dont think i have ever seen such a crazy outlier as the gfs 12z..

i mean...its on another level...its just ....bonkers.....isnt it ? 

[seb]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I have to say that i dont think i have ever seen such a crazy outlier as the gfs 12z..

i mean...its on another level...its just ....bonkers.....isnt it ? 

I’ll have whatever the Op is having

On a serious note, let’s see what the next two runs produce. It’s clearly exaggerating whatever it has picked up on but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t something to pick up on.

[FetchCB]

The thing is it's High Pressure and depending where it settles and how it orientates will give differing outcomes. 

In winter you can be on the wrong side and get grey dross but on the other side a winter nirvana. 

I suspect that all models will oscillate between outcomes this week with GFS today showing one possible, albeit extreme, scenario tomorrow could quite be the reverse. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

59 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm gives quite a bit of rain for midlands tomorrow afternoon/night!!gfs and ukv decrease the amounts a lot more!!who will be correct!

Tell you what mate I'm gerring sick and tired of these failed precipitation charts this Summer..The met forecast was badly wrong for here today..They say loads of showers tomorrow as well..Guess what my local app says??? And its been closer to the mark than the big boys for most of the time! 

This reminds me of 95..Areas of High pressure would dominate for days and days even weeks...then there would be a graduall pressure fall with rain in the forecast,Guess what we would end up with a bit more cloud and lower temps for a few days before Heights took control again...95 all over it this Summer for me as been.

Edited August 15, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

3 hours ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

The ECM00 also showed hot air trying to push up from Spain by next Thursday.

I certainly won't be discounting the GFS 12z.

It does not tie in the the Metoffice forecast for next week, but that doesn't mean it should be discounted either!

[sheikhy]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Tell you what mate I'm gerring sick and tired of these failed precipitation charts this Summer..The met forecast was badly wrong for here today..They say loads of showers tomorrow as well..Guess what my local app says??? And its been closer to the mark than the big boys for most of the time! 

This reminds me of 95..Areas of High pressure would dominate for days and days even weeks...then there would be a graduall pressure fall with rain in the forecast,Guess what we would end up with a bit more cloud and lower temps for a few days before Heights took control again...95 all over it this Summer for me as been.

Agree with you man!!as ive mentioned before the ecm is way to generous with precipitation amounts!!today has been very dry apart from a 5 mins shower which did nothing to the ground lol!!latest ukv again not as wet as ecm for my area!!!i hope it  does rain though just to cool the air!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

30 minutes ago, Don said:

It does not tie in the the Metoffice forecast for next week, but that doesn't mean it should be discounted either!

I think the bottom line is we are running above average with those temperatures on a Global scale yet again.

These long range forecasts are gonna start getting more and more difficult with time...I had heard on twitter from various experienced and pro forecasters how la nina would cause a largely unsettled second half to this Summer...it couldn't have been further from the truth! 

The truth is there are many variables at play with our weather and la nina is just one of em..But the big aspect of all this for me is that La Nina is now being over ridden by excessive greenhouse gasses! Even when La nina is cooling the Pacific we are not really seeing any knock on affect from it...where as many years ago we would have. Same can be said of Winter when all the talk of la nina causing a colder 1st or 2nd part of Winter all goes up the wall due to a Strong Polar Vortex in situ towards the NW...this will outgun nina everytime!

It looks too me our Summers will just carry on getting Hotter and potentially drier,and our Winters will become reliant on the PV taking a big knockout blow to at least put us in the game if the dice fall correctly!

The bigger concern right now is if Autumn and Winter follow the recent trends for many months of dry benign conditions!

[damianslaw]

GFS 18z different to ECM output early next week, doesn't make much of the atlantic and builds heights through quicker but unlike 12z transports them further NE with lowish heights to the SW. Its all a bit uncertain really how things will play out end of the month. I note met office pushed back settled conditions to very end of August. We need to keep an eye on colder air bedding in over Pole.. this will set up marked temp differentials early autumn this year thanks to anomalous warm SSTs over Atlantic..  we also have the still predicted livelier hurricane season.. but will it be a bust.. very slow start to the season. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

45 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

GFS 18z different to ECM output early next week, doesn't make much of the atlantic and builds heights through quicker but unlike 12z transports them further NE with lowish heights to the SW. Its all a bit uncertain really how things will play out end of the month. I note met office pushed back settled conditions to very end of August. We need to keep an eye on colder air bedding in over Pole.. this will set up marked temp differentials early autumn this year thanks to anomalous warm SSTs over Atlantic..  we also have the still predicted livelier hurricane season.. but will it be a bust.. very slow start to the season. 

There is a little support for the op solution with Heights more towards the NE and a low towards the W/SW...but there's alot of support for the mean with a more favourable build of Heights...I think the form horse is for more settled at this stage. This hopefully will be firmed up over the next few days...not convinced at all of an unsettled spell that either packs any punch or lasts tbh.

[Panayiotis]

Won’t be surprised to see the really hot temperatures return with a pattern like this; low in the Atlantic driving warmer air from Spain/Africa. It’s a trend seen by a few of the models today for around 192hrs, will be interesting to see what they produce next few days… 

[mb018538]

A slightly pessimistic set of 00z runs so far, which don't really fit the outlooks below from yesterdays NOAA/ECM for 21st August onwards:



GEM has a low plonked over us instead.

GFS is a bit of an unsettled member among a decent set of ensembles. We await ECM...

Edited August 16, 2022 by mb018538

[MattStoke]

27 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

A slightly pessimistic set of 00z runs so far, which don't really fit the outlooks below from yesterdays NOAA/ECM for 21st August onwards:



GEM has a low plonked over us instead.

GFS is a bit of an unsettled member among a decent set of ensembles. We await ECM...

I’ve noticed many times this summer the GEM has shown a cooler and more unsettled picture than the other models.