Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Earthshine]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Guys looks like this could be it for the summer!!!after viewing this mornings 00z runs all 3 show much more rainfall and looking quite autumnal actually!!make the most of the dry hot conditions till monday!!summer 2022 its been an absolute pleasure✌❤

Bit early to call summer off.  Pressure looks to be riding after a dip next week.

[LRD]

48 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

This could be a month of two starkly contrasting halves. It seems extraordinary right now to contemplate it as we a) have a general tendency to recency bias and b) meteorologically high pressure patterns can be hard to shift. But there's no doubt that the models are now pointing to a significant change:

Although, to balance that out, the GFS is a wet outlier for London on 20th and 22nd Aug:

And the ECM looks nothing like GFS at day 9:

There are some similarities between the ECM and UKMO for a week's time though, although the ECM is quite a lot warmer 850s-wise

As usual there will be a middle ground found. Which probably means it will end up being relatively fine and 'normal summer' in the south but more unsettled in the north

[JayAlmeida]

23 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Guys looks like this could be it for the summer!!!after viewing this mornings 00z runs all 3 show much more rainfall and looking quite autumnal actually!!make the most of the dry hot conditions till monday!!summer 2022 its been an absolute pleasure✌❤

The GFS 00z is exceptionally grim this morning and it has been the trend setter. The ECM looks better with more of an azores influence by next weekend and the GEM is firmly in between IMO.

Looking at the end of the GEM you would expect the azores to ridge in from the 22nd.

[seb]

15 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The GFS 00z is exceptionally grim this morning and it has been the trend setter. The ECM looks better with more of an azores influence by next weekend and the GEM is firmly in between IMO.

Looking at the end of the GEM you would expect the azores to ridge in from the 22nd.

The GFS has been close to perfect when it comes to heat. For any low pressure systems, in particular coming from the Atlantic, it has been abysmal since last autumn. I cannot count the occasions where it showed a system pushing through, with copious amounts of rain at T+10 just for all of it to disappear closer to the time or, if it came off, to be significantly weaker than modelled resulting in next to no rain by the time it got to to the Eastern half of the country.

[Beanz]

52 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

The GFS 00z is exceptionally grim this morning and it has been the trend setter. The ECM looks better with more of an azores influence by next weekend and the GEM is firmly in between IMO.

Looking at the end of the GEM you would expect the azores to ridge in from the 22nd.

‘Better’ and ‘grim’ mean different things to different people…do you mean wet/dry/cold/hot/windy?  

Edited August 11, 2022 by Beanz

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Guys looks like this could be it for the summer!!!after viewing this mornings 00z runs all 3 show much more rainfall and looking quite autumnal actually!!make the most of the dry hot conditions till monday!!summer 2022 its been an absolute pleasure✌❤

I suspect this may be a tad premature, Sheikhy.

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, JayAlmeida said:

What a mess the model output is this evening 

Details like rain and cloud totals aren't what these models excel in so bear that in mind at this range. To me things look hot, humid and potentially thundery Mon and possibly Tue with a transitional period from Wed. 

Can anybody shed some light on the MJO and AAM projections for the second half of August? 

This evenings NOAA charts look very LP dominated which doesn't bode well for the rest of August. Seems similar to July's pattern of 10 days of exceptional summer weather for most of the UK before returning to usual NW/SE divide. Was hoping for a bit more consistency in August.

Indeed, the NOAAs dont paint a pretty picture, the 8-14 dayer looks pretty (early) Autumnal to me, strong westerlies = unsettled and breezy,.

Do these charts "write off" summer?.. well not exactly, but IF they are accurate then a pattern that would return us to settled warm summery weather is a very long way off, and is unlikely to develop before then end of the month/Summer IMHO.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I suspect this may be a tad premature, Sheikhy.

I agree, Matt: September hasn't happened yet, and who would bet against our having a warm one?

[mb018538]

I don’t think at this point anyone should be complaining about low pressure and rain in the forecast. Even the most ardent summer lovers like myself know that we need it so badly now. Played golf twice this week and it’s like being in the African Savannah or similar. I don’t like seeing everything so dead and brown!

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Guys looks like this could be it for the summer!!!after viewing this mornings 00z runs all 3 show much more rainfall and looking quite autumnal actually!!make the most of the dry hot conditions till monday!!summer 2022 its been an absolute pleasure✌❤

Be careful, by changing the words summer and hot to winter/cold....some peeps will copy/paste your post and use that in Winter

Edited August 11, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[kold weather]

Probably one of the first legitimately very wet runs from the 00z GFS. It is certainly needed though I worry that at least to start with it looks more convective in nature which obviously raises flooding risks. Later on we start getting more frontal systems which will help far more on the drought front.

Given just how warm SSTs have been, Europe has been and how dry it has been over W.Europe I'd suggest there is probably still a pretty good chance at some point of reintroducing some pretty warm air into early September. I also somewhat suspect the GFS in particular is being too progressive in reducing the Azores high strength and I suspect it may well be more of a feature in our weather than the GFS wants at the moment.

[snefnug]

25 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I don’t think at this point anyone should be complaining about low pressure and rain in the forecast. Even the most ardent summer lovers like myself know that we need it so badly now. Played golf twice this week and it’s like being in the African Savannah or similar. I don’t like seeing everything so dead and brown!

My family lived in northern Nigeria in the 80s and the golf course was dried grass, the greens were brown sand.  Fortunately for my dad the 19th served  ice cold gin and tonic…

[Paul]

Looking at the ECM ensembles, after a bit of a dip early next week, it does look likely pressure will rise again. Temperature wise, looking at the 90th percentile (the top of the grey area), they also take a dip, but stay around 25c for London, increasing back towards 30c towards the end of the run. There is at least some rainfall from the 15th onwards, but taking the outliers out of the equation, probably no more than 50mm right through to the final few days of the month..

[MattStoke]

54 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree, Matt: September hasn't happened yet, and who would bet against our having a warm one?

September often brings fine, settled and fairly warm weather. It’s normally nice around my birthday on the 17th.

[sheikhy]

53 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Be careful, by changing the words summer and hot to winter/cold....some peeps will copy/paste your post and use that in Winter

Yup lol!!and just to clarify i said for the summer not for the autumn lol!!we could still see warm weather in september but maybe not to the extent of what we just seen!!it could still change for next week but lets be honest even if it does ending up a monsoon and there aint anymore heat this summer has been fantastic!!!just to add 06 gfs not as wet again and remains hot into tuesday!!!

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I don’t think at this point anyone should be complaining about low pressure and rain in the forecast. Even the most ardent summer lovers like myself know that we need it so badly now. Played golf twice this week and it’s like being in the African Savannah or similar. I don’t like seeing everything so dead and brown!

By ‘we’ you of course mean the south. Areas further north are a long way from drought conditions. There’s been enough rain where I am and it’s been dry here compared to further north and west. I’d quite happily see rain disappear from the outlook up here with a holiday coming up and having been unable to enjoy the summer warmth and sunshine so far due to injury. 
 

Not a fan of posts that speak for the whole of the U.K. and every person when conditions have varied greatly and so do peoples circumstances and preferences.

Edited August 11, 2022 by MattStoke

[SW Saltire]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

By ‘we’ you of course mean the south. Areas further north are a long way from drought conditions. There’s been enough rain where I am and it’s been dry here compared to further north and west. I’d quite happily see rain disappear from the outlook up here with a holiday coming up and having been unable to enjoy the summer warmth and sunshine so far due to injury. 
 

Not a fan of posts that speak for the whole of the U.K. and every person when conditions have varied greatly and so do peoples circumstances and preferences.

I live a fair way North and West of you and whilst you’re correct we’re a long way from drought, we do need rain.

June was below average, July was 50% of average and August needs 90mm to reach average (March and April were below average after a very wet February). 

Most streams have dried up. Silage yields will be lean without some rain, Barley is gonna be 3/4 weeks early. 
No I don’t speak for everyone up here but the farmers I speak to regularly in South-Western Scotland all want and need rain.

The weather will do what it is going to do anyway.

[AWD]

More so for convective weather geeks, but another model, the high res UKV, is starting to come into range for next week now, namely Monday and continues the theme of scattered showers/storms breaking out pretty much anywhere through Monday afternoon, as shown below by the 03z run;

Max temperatures for Monday shown to be considerably lower compared to the weekend too;

I do think that could end up being overly pessimistic, especially when taking into account other modelling for the same day, but nevertheless a change to something less warm and more changeable next week continues to gather pace, I do expect the convective weather thread to see an uptick in activity next week as storm chasing recommences after a long hiatus.

Edited August 11, 2022 by AWD

[Earthshine]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1557663649870798849?t=NWXlCDmz7dElFQYeBES47A&s=19

[minus10]

Yes more changeable now with the gfs 6z...rain showing for the south getting closer..temps taking a bit of a dip ..

However....plenty of heat over Europe southwards later on in the run still so dont think we have yet seen the last of ..shall we say warmer spells...

It will be soooo good to get some rain though here in the south and east so that this can become green again.....

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes more changeable now with the gfs 6z...rain showing for the south getting closer..temps taking a bit of a dip ..

However....plenty of heat over Europe southwards later on in the run still so dont think we have yet seen the last of ..shall we say warmer spells...

It will be soooo good to get some rain though here in the south and east so that this can become green again.....

Role reverse of where the snow-covered ground normally is in England taking out south/sw region..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Some a little quick to start saying we are heading in the wrong direction this morning,and largely based on GFS op runs! 

Once again these GFS op runs are doing what they so often do...namely bring a trough in and keep it centred across the country for day after day! I really do think its barking up the wrong tree again...That Low barely moves right until the end of the run...does it have a crystal ball or something...or is it showing its normal bias for more typical UK conditions!

I'm confident things will improve towards the final 3rd of the month again,and it will become very warm once again. The mean from the 6z also backs this theory up!

Expect some widely varied op runs over the next few days...but I'm thinking final 3rd and the Bank Holiday could be looking pretty good!

Here's a shot of Shropshires highest Hills the brown Clee at around 1800ft. Lovely view from the Baggeridge hill I'm up right now....guys it's gorgeous....Big pool at the bottom of the hill.. 

Ground is well parched though and some fires have broke out the last few days...mind you I am Hot stuff

Take care in this heat and stay Hydrated.

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

As long as there is plenty of rain I’m looking forwards to some storms. The question is whether there will be enough of the wet stuff actually hitting the ground to offset the risk of lightning sparking off fires. It’s something I genuinely worry about!

[seb]

23 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Some a little quick to start saying we are heading in the wrong direction this morning,and largely based on GFS op runs! 

Once again these GFS op runs are doing what they so often do...namely bring a trough in and keep it centred across the country for day after day! I really do think its barking up the wrong tree again...That Low barely moves right until the end of the run...does it have a crystal ball or something...or is it showing its normal bias for more typical UK conditions!

I'm confident things will improve towards the final 3rd of the month again,and it will become very warm once again. The mean from the 6z also backs this theory up!

Expect some widely varied op runs over the next few days...but I'm thinking final 3rd and the Bank Holiday could be looking pretty good!

Here's a shot of Shropshires highest Hills the brown Clee at around 1800ft. Lovely view from the Baggeridge hill I'm up right now....guys it's gorgeous....Big pool at the bottom of the hill.. 

Ground is well parched though and some fires have broke out the last few days...mind you I am Hot stuff

Take care in this heat and stay Hydrated.

 

This. The majority of the rain and the lower temps on the GFS are post next Saturday, FI territory. We’ve seen this so many times.

Of course and as expected, the 6z has roughly halved the rain amounts already when compared to the 00z.

Oh and judging by a little MetO sneak peak I've just seen, showers appear to be very unlikely in my region between Sunday and Wednesday. 5mm currently less than a 10% chance.

Edited August 11, 2022 by seb

[damianslaw]

Just reflecting on some of the commentary in here at present when assessing the models. There appears to be a degree of preference creeping into some posts, not all I may add. One represented by those who want desperately to see a return to unsettled wet conditions and one that seems to want the dry hot theme to continue.

With these two perspectives, we are seeing posters dismissing any model showing a notable wet output and conversely any model showing a prolongation of heat and dry..

Alas, taking a more objective view.. all models continue to show a lowering of pressure early next week. That's about as far as we can call things. Where any precipitation falls, how much and how heavy and for how long who knows. Also how long and where heat lingers we don't know as yet. What we can say is we have at least 3 more days of near nationwide heat sun and dry to experience. For heat and sun worshippers this is as good as it gets.. and occurring slap bang end of a week in depths of school holidays, what timing!