Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Rain All Night]

5 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Really pleased with how this forecast has went especially from 19 days in advance  

The MJO has now progressed to phase 6   

Not a huge shift from our current pattern but we could have the flow coming from a North-Easterly direction and with conditions gradually getting progressively cooler / colder in that area (Scandinavia etc) it wouldn't be outrageous to suggest that air creeping toward the UK. October 27th/28th is when I'm looking for that pattern to take shape

  

 

Is this your support arriving on cue?

[Weather-history]

The solar eclipse is a week Tuesday morning. Is the weather going to play ball? Models seem to be favouring low pressure dominating that morning

 

 

[carinthian]

On 15/10/2022 at 08:08, carinthian said:

Morning all. Still no agreement this morning at 168t. UK model below . The UKMO still anchors the East Atlantic trough well west of the British Isles, whereas GFS and ECM  shows this on the move eastwards at an increasing pace. In the meanwhile, time to turn the thermostats down a notch or two across much of Euroland this coming week. Hopefully save a £ or old Austrian schilling or two. ! Currently, think so much uncertainly in the models , even at 168t.

Have a nice weekend in Blighty.

C

Good Morning. a bit of an update regarding the trough out in the East N. Atlantic. UKMO still anchors it way out west at 168t. Now has some support from ECM/GEM latest models, which seem to delay its progress now into the British Isles. Sort of edging their bets as so to speak. Much uncertainty in the medium range charts as the models continue to get to grips  with that  development and movement to the SW of the British Isles. Fascinating to see how it eventually pans out .

C

Edited October 16, 2022 by carinthian

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Good Morning. a bit of an update regarding the trough out in the East N. Atlantic. UKMO still anchors it way out west at 168t. Now has some support from ECM/GFS latest models, which seem to delay its progress now into the British Isles. Sort of edging their bets as so to speak. Much uncertainty in the medium range charts as the models continue to get to grips  with that  development and movement to the SW of the British Isles. Fascinating to see how it eventually pans out .

C

So if it's held back, what could be the outcome for us? Is that a higher chance of a late season warm spell?

[Cambrian]

Another changeable weekend ahead shown on the 0z GFS op for day 6 and 7, indeed low pressure just to our west or southwest, or slap bang over us for a good few days, 

 

the 0z ECM means are similar, variations on a cyclonic theme through to the beginning of the following week -

 

All good viewing for that well established school of thought found in many a western upland country pub that high pressure is for pansies and that it isn’t proper weather unless it’s completely sheeting it down, or at least going to shortly. Don’t worry, I don’t speak too much about the weather models with these people so they won’t find out about this setup from me. Leave them go outside and find all that happiness for themselves.

GFS op day 7 / ECM op day 8

 

Yes, I love them because thankfully there is nothing that can be done for them, so I don’t have to worry. Accumulated total precipitation charts for the next 10 days, GFS and ECM - spot on.

 

Anyway, that’s enough about my outreach work for this morning - have an awesome Sunday dinner. 

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

So if it's held back, what could be the outcome for us? Is that a higher chance of a late season warm spell?

Yes Richie, should keep a mild or rather warm flow into the British Isles, but as highlighted a lot of chopping and changing even in the medium term outputs.

C

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Is this your support arriving on cue?

Nope.
That chart suggest a very very average spell, a moderate Westerly upper flow with some height rises to the West and weak low pressure to our East. But basically thats a westerly, average, chart.

[mushymanrob]

17 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Really pleased with how this forecast has went especially from 19 days in advance  

The MJO has now progressed to phase 6   

Not a huge shift from our current pattern but we could have the flow coming from a North-Easterly direction and with conditions gradually getting progressively cooler / colder in that area (Scandinavia etc) it wouldn't be outrageous to suggest that air creeping toward the UK. October 27th/28th is when I'm looking for that pattern to take shape

  

 

But the MJO doesnt orbit very strongly in phase 6, so id question its impact on our pattern, and in any case - ive not found the MJO composites to be very accurate... neither the NOAA anomalies nor the EPS support that pattern.. we shall see ...

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes Richie, should keep a mild or rather warm flow into the British Isles, but as highlighted a lot of chopping and changing even in the medium term outputs.

C

Difficult to decipher what this would mean for the longer term but a case of crossing that bridge when we come to it I suppose, given all the chopping and changing?

[Froze were the Days]

Just seen the latest ECM det run...nothing short of ridiculous! LP continually to the south west/west of the UK and continued southerly warmth, god help the melt down in here if we get a north easterly/easterly sometime in November and it's not at all cold due to the continued warm continent.

[carinthian]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Difficult to decipher what this would mean for the longer term but a case of crossing that bridge when we come to it I suppose, given all the chopping and changing?

Yep Don, models continue to struggle with the upper trough. Expect further chopping and changing this week.

C

[Don]

34 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen the latest ECM det run...nothing short of ridiculous! LP continually to the south west/west of the UK and continued southerly warmth, god help the melt down in here if we get a north easterly/easterly sometime in November and it's not at all cold due to the continued warm continent.

I sense you are liking this output?! 

However, a warming continent is an increasing issue these days due to you know what.  That said, as others have alluded to, the pattern is by no means set in stone just yet!

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, Don said:

I sense you are liking this output?! 

However, a warming continent is an increasing issue these days due to you know what.  That said, as others have alluded to, the pattern is by no means set in stone just yet!

Nope! not at all...so surreal to have a bowling ball low (at times) other times more elongated south to north continually in that area, in my 40 years of looking at synoptics it's just not right but we are entering new territory with our climate, who knows what waits in store over the coming months? 8c from a north easterly, 18c from a southerly?

[richie3846]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nope! not at all...so surreal to have a bowling ball low (at times) other times more elongated south to north continually in that area, in my 40 years of looking at synoptics it's just not right but we are entering new territory with our climate, who knows what waits in store over the coming months? 8c from a north easterly, 18c from a southerly?

Is it an Omega block that's being forecast?

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nope! not at all...so surreal to have a bowling ball low (at times) other times more elongated south to north continually in that area, in my 40 years of looking at synoptics it's just not right but we are entering new territory with our climate, who knows what waits in store over the coming months? 8c from a north easterly, 18c from a southerly?

Another February like 2019? Well, wouldn't that stick it up the Energy Cartel!

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Another February like 2019? Well, wouldn't that stick it up the Energy Cartel!

add 2020 to that...even milder than that and nobody will bother putting the heating on, got my kindling wood, coal and logs at the ready to start the fossil fuel burning again (not that it's stopped). By the way not sure any Seasonal LRF is predicting an Omega block, a euro slug a far greater possibility.

[damianslaw]

Jetstream forecast is a ragged one, normally at this time of year we would expect low pressure to move west to east. alas models showing a cut off low to our SW going nowhere, seems stuck in a washing machine. We saw very similiar synoptics early Sept, indeed its been a common theme this year, with heights to our east sucking in warm southerly air.

Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph.

[Don]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Nope! not at all...so surreal to have a bowling ball low (at times) other times more elongated south to north continually in that area, in my 40 years of looking at synoptics it's just not right but we are entering new territory with our climate, who knows what waits in store over the coming months? 8c from a north easterly, 18c from a southerly?

Yes, it is a bit of a concern, although I think your 18C from a southerly is a tad conservative.  I think you can now safely add two or three degrees to that!

Edited October 16, 2022 by Don

[Don]

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Longer term still the indication something colder will manifest, but again the theme for 2022 seems that no cold is allowed. Its been an odd year with the atlantic out of oomph.

Is this alarm bells starting to sound for the winter period?!  Potential cold weather continuously getting pushed back is not a good sign at all!!  Still very early days of course, but I'm not liking the way the pattern is trending currently!!  Eurasion snow cover has also ground to a halt over the last week (and may have even declined slightly) and not likely to advance much for the forceable either.

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Is this alarm bells starting to sound for the winter period?!  Potential cold weather continuously getting pushed back is not a good sign at all!!  Still very early days of course, but I'm not liking the way the pattern is trending currently!!  Eurasion snow cover has also ground to a halt over the last week (and may have even declined slightly) and not likely to advance much for the forceable either.

On the contrary the way the atlantic is behaving would I think increase chance of cold weather, just a case of where the high pressure sets up. In January it sat in the wrong place for cold, but had it nudged a bit east... apologise this would be better in the winter thread.

Edited October 16, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

26 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

add 2020 to that...even milder than that and nobody will bother putting the heating on, got my kindling wood, coal and logs at the ready to start the fossil fuel burning again (not that it's stopped). By the way not sure any Seasonal LRF is predicting an Omega block, a euro slug a far greater possibility.

To be fair, not many long range models are predicting a Euro slug, apart from perhaps the CFSv2.  Not say that won't be the case of course.

[Froze were the Days]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

To be fair, not many long range models are predicting a Euro slug, apart from perhaps the CFSv2.  Not say that won't be the case of course.

True! (more of an expansive slug in my mind)...a mean of all the seasonals would probably put heights through the UK into more northern areas of Europe but wouldn't take much to head towards a less desirable position.

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

True! (more of an expansive slug in my mind)...a mean of all the seasonals would probably put heights through the UK into more northern areas of Europe but wouldn't take much to head towards a less desirable position.

What on earth is this? I don't understand a word anyone is saying? What is an expansive slug? What is the mean of all the seasonals? A big pot of soup that doesn't tell us anything? I'm confused with all this conjecture and funny wording as soon as there's a sniff of winter! 

 

[Froze were the Days]

22 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

What on earth is this? I don't understand a word anyone is saying? What is an expansive slug? What is the mean of all the seasonals? A big pot of soup that doesn't tell us anything? I'm confused with all this conjecture and funny wording as soon as there's a sniff of winter! 

 

These posts should really go in the Winter thoughts and chat forum...but here's some seasonals (forecasted from this month) - reddish areas are heights, blues low heights. Always found the DWD (German model) fairly accurate or the party pooper when other models look good for cold, JMA (Japanese) always seems to show cold blocking at this time of year for Winter but as we get nearer backs down....

Hope this helps.

[cyclonic happiness]

I think it's been such a strange year for weather, that nothing can be ruled out.

We have the extra heat from the Hunga Tunga eruption, which is an unknown element that we've not really seen before.

Plus I don't think I can ever remember the Atlantic and jet stream being so dead, I think we have an exciting period ahead