Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Paul]

On 15/06/2022 at 08:54, mountain shadow said:

It really is quite incredible, especially with our maritime climate to have such a massive range within a relatively small area.

The thicknesses are equally as impressive - we're definitely going to be adjusting our scale to include values above 1440. For what it's worth a thickness of 1440 (shown in a few spots - chiefly nw of London) would give a max of 35-36c (assuming mostly clear skies).  

 

It's quite noticeable how in the past it may have taken up to 1-2 weeks for the ground to dry and for heat to build to these sort of levels in the UK. But in more recent times, we can see temperatures towards/in excess of the mid-thirties with just a brief hit of heat. 

[Cambrian]

The 0z ECM and GFS ensemble mean Z500 anomaly charts in good agreement in showing an improvement in the couple of days leading up to the summer solstice, with the trough over the UK and Ireland that is linking the Scandinavian and Iberian low pressure systems on day 4 (19th) 

 

becoming broken by a build in heights over us towards day 6 (21st). Just as well for all those dawn festivities, dancing around and things. 

 

The heights remain with us or nearby through to day 9, midsummer’s day on the 24th,

 

by which time the Iberian feature is fading, though lower heights are still an influence to the northeast over Scandinavia. All in all, there looks likely to be plenty of fair weather around going into the last third of June, not that hot for a while with a gentle feed from the west or northwest, but looking pleasant and seasonal. 

[Troubleatmill]

Looking at the EC accumulated rainfall, think I'll buy a dinghy and paddle out into the Irish sea next week

[minus10]

23 minutes ago, Paul said:

The thicknesses are equally as impressive - we're definitely going to be adjusting our scale to include values above 1440. For what it's worth a thickness of 1440 (shown in a few spots - chiefly nw of London) would give a max of 35-36c (assuming mostly clear skies).  

 

It's quite noticeable how in the past it may have taken up to 1-2 weeks for the ground to dry and for heat to build to these sort of levels in the UK. But in more recent times, we can see temperatures towards/in excess of the mid-thirties with just a brief hit of heat. 

Yes, very interesting. Drier the ground the quicker the air heats up and as a gardener i have noticed over the last few years that the ground is generally drier than it used to be...so although i havent the records to confirm it does appear that the climate is changing and becoming drier ...in the south and east in particular apart from the shorter periods of intense downpours...

[Guest]

The ECM means 850s for here on Saturday at 14Z is 22.4C! Unbelievable, just need the sun out!!

I may get mocked for this (I’m used to it) but I think Saturday could be a surprise, somewhere Charlwood or Hersty could push 36/37C 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Alderc

[Man With Beard]

30 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The ECM means 850s for here on Saturday at 14Z is 22.4C! Unbelievable, just need the sun out!!

Might be an "on the day" forecast. Sun out = another very hot day. Anything between 25C and 35C on Saturday for south areas imo. 

[StormChaseUK]

East Wales could possibly have a Colarado event Saturday,  from 29C to 8C . Incredible. 

[Roadrunner]

ICON 6z moves the rain band south again at 12pm on Saturday and is not as intense. Rain almost non existant for Sunday too. I love the ICON. 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

ICON 6z moves the rain band south again at 12pm on Saturday and is not as intense. Rain almost non existant for Sunday too. I love the ICON. 

6z GFS has it running Humber to Cork.

[Guest]

It’s almost comical - ICON 06z 17C London, GFS 33C London. 

[sheikhy]

Surely the heat wont get blown away that easy!!!sorry i meant to say EXTREME HEAT cos thats what it is!!gfs 06z same as the 00z for saturday!maybe slightly further north if anything!

[sheikhy]

Latest ukv 06z has temps for midlands east anglia and southern england at 32-34 degreees at only 12pm on friday!!!gona be a scorcher!!

[StormChaseUK]

Imagine in February if we were expecting 0C and snow one day and it was 20C the next.     I don't think i have ever seen anything like what is modelled for Saturday before.  Hard to process.

[Troubleatmill]

Looking at the short ensembles for the initial period after this heat blast, the 12z from last night had the trough to our north dropping down over the UK, this on the 06z has been dropped (for now at least) thankfully. 

138hrs 06z ens postage stamps:

[minus10]

This sort of heat profile over spain and Europe  is surely something we normally see later in the summer..

...just shows how dry those areas are and how quick they are to heat up given the right conditions...the considerable amount of heat energy there must spark off some pretty intense storms when the right triggers are in place...just where ??

As others have stated...just fascinating watching how all this plays out.....

[Roadrunner]

From my untrained eye almost all models have moved Saturday & Sunday's rain South, almost run on run. It is also not as intense. This may of course correct and change but I am definitely seeing a pattern develop here over the last day or so. 

They could all be completely wrong of course due to the pretty extreme set up but I'm fine with sending all the wet stuff to France. 

 

[MattStoke]

50 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest ukv 06z has temps for midlands east anglia and southern england at 32-34 degreees at only 12pm on friday!!!gona be a scorcher!!

Highest I can see is 32’C.

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by MattStoke

[Earthshine]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

This sort of heat profile over spain and Europe  is surely something we normally see later in the summer..

...just shows how dry those areas are and how quick they are to heat up given the right conditions...the considerable amount of heat energy there must spark off some pretty intense storms when the right triggers are in place...just where ??

As others have stated...just fascinating watching how all this plays out.....

You wouldn't expect to see those kind of temperatures at any time of the year.  The mean maximum for Madrid is *only* low to mid thirties.

[Paul]

On 15/06/2022 at 12:10, MattStoke said:

Highest I can see is 32’C.

There are some 33c's in the sea masked version. It's just about which point is plotted as with such a hi-res model, you can't put numbers on every point as it'd just be a massive black unreadable blob.

 

The 09z is running at the moment, so we'll have that to look at up to 15:00 on Friday in about 30 minutes. 

[Paul]

Here's the 09z - 35c or thereabouts shown at 15z. So still potentially on for the June record (35.6c). 

[StormChaseUK]

At this stage what is the probability of the heat staying put on Saturday 10, 20% ?- it all seems finely balanced.

A move 50 or 100 miles here or there.  

[sheikhy]

35 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Highest I can see is 32’C.

 

Oops my bad i thought those pockets of pink were meant to be 33 or 34 degrees!!

[mb018538]

6z ARPEGE also has 35c in the London area, as well as a number of 33-34c showing

[sheikhy]

Ukv not as good for my area now!more 30 degrees than 33 from earlier but the south east bakes in temps of 34 to 36 degrees!!

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukv not as good for my area now!more 30 degrees than 33 from earlier but the south east bakes in temps of 34 to 36 degrees!!

Wouldn't worry too much about that one....if its 30c or 33c it's still very hot!