Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldn't worry too much about that one....if its 30c or 33c it's still very hot! 

Mate your at 35 degrees!!its gona be a sauna for ya!!!!?

[Guest]

The GFS mean now stays above 10C at 850pha through the middle of next here in the south. Quite a few ensembles members bring mid-high 20s quite quickly. 

[richie3846]

3 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes, very interesting. Drier the ground the quicker the air heats up and as a gardener i have noticed over the last few years that the ground is generally drier than it used to be...so although i havent the records to confirm it does appear that the climate is changing and becoming drier ...in the south and east in particular apart from the shorter periods of intense downpours...

I've observed the same, as measured by my veg plot. It's not possible to grow anything at all without a significant amount of additional watering. If I had an allotment without watering facilities, it would be completely impossible to grow anything. Also, the environment agency keeps track of soil moisture, and over the last 10 years it appears that the soil is more often than not drier than average round here. At the end of May 82mm deficit against an average of 52mm. That will be even drier now has half of June has passed with dryish conditions.

[Marcus_surfer]

56 minutes ago, Paul said:

Here's the 09z - 35c or thereabouts shown at 15z. So still potentially on for the June record (35.6c). 

South Wales 17c that's insane

[Northernlights]

6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

The UKV run this morning has 850 temps of 25c in the SE corner late Saturday afternoon Max temps only mid to high 20s though. Not sure I’ve seen 25c here before…..at the same time you have 850s of 0/-1c in Scotland. Has to be the biggest contrast ever seen in the UK for me.

And next week MWIS talks about freezing point and snow flurries on the highest mountains not rare round  midsummers day in  Highland Scotland.  

Cairngorms NP and Monadhliath Forecast

WWW.MWIS.ORG.UK

 

[cfbath]

All this uncertainty surrounding next week and next weekend is certainly making it hard to know if it'll be wellies or trainers for Glastonbury.

Would it be fair to say we are trending towards a showery pattern next week with potential HP building back in for the weekend? 

Also, I was wondering if someone could let me know what times the ECM model updates? I'm aware of the GFS times but struggling to find online what time to expect the ECM runs.

Many Thanks

[sheikhy]

Terrible 06z ecm for much of england on saturday!raining all day!!absolute drenching for south west into wales midlands and northern east anglia!!!!

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Terrible 06z ecm for much of england on saturday!raining all day!!absolute drenching for south west into wales midlands and northern east anglia!!!!

Bit of an all-or-nothing day, Saturday. The line you speak of is right in the point of uncertainty. Much further north, cooler clearer, much further south hot, but your location could go either way. Or drenched!

[tight isobar]

Not being a big heat fan “ ironically “ I sit slap bang in the usual heat drag zone .. Anyway, away from the interlude Saturday pm onwards- the trending is Already wanting to uptick members for a return of sorts to higher level hpa!..It wouldn’t be at all surprising from all data to quickly revert to “at least higher modest temperatures for mid Britain downward.. or even a flag up of extreme values in The nearer/ mid term!!!

[Methuselah]

Today's Met Office Ten-Day Trend: things could even be looking good for Glastonbury? As Kate Bush might say: Stranger Things?

 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Terrible 06z ecm for much of england on saturday!raining all day!!absolute drenching for south west into wales midlands and northern east anglia!!!!

All of wales and england generally the West Country and midlands. I’d say to the north of the midlands and south of the midlands it’s less definitive 

but that will change - we do seem to be settling on a band of persistent rainfall across a 50 mile band which oscillates north and south as it pulses ne through Saturday 

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

All of wales and england generally the West Country and midlands. I’d say to the north of the midlands and south of the midlands it’s less definitive 

but that will change - we do seem to be settling on a band of persistent rainfall across a 50 mile band which oscillates north and south as it pulses ne through Saturday 

Im really dreading this saturday now!was planning to go to the park with the kids to play some cricket!not looking good as it stands!!!

[sheikhy]

Ukv top temp 30  degrees midlands and 35 degreees maybe for northern home counties!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukv top temp 30  degrees midlands and 35 degreees maybe for northern home counties!!

That's for Friday? Are we still likely to see high 20's in south saturday?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

That's for Friday? Are we still likely to see high 20's in south saturday?

At the moment I’d say south of London has a decent chance - still toss of several coins for the solution though ….

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

That's for Friday? Are we still likely to see high 20's in south saturday?

Does not go that far out on the 12z ukv!!gfs shall give us a clue in 30 mins or so!!!

[The Bevmeister]

What are the chances of some spectacular thunder and lightning to accompany the forecasted rain come Saturday? 

[Guest]

ICON again clears the heat extremely rapidly  on Saturday. For context for this location at 6pm it’s 850s are nearly 4C lower and any of the 06Z ensembles and 10C lower than the mean. 
 

It should be binned unless GFS rapidly follows suit…

Edited June 15, 2022 by Alderc

[sunnijim]

17 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

That's for Friday? Are we still likely to see high 20's in south saturday?

High 20's?

The met office are calling 33c in London on Saturday.

The usual thoughts that they might have acquired some data that is making them confident to go public on that

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

High 20's?

The met office are calling 33c in London on Saturday.

The usual thoughts that they might have acquired some data that is making them confident to go public on that

We won't be seeing thirties on Saturday anywhere in my opinion perhaps 28c tops!

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, cfbath said:

All this uncertainty surrounding next week and next weekend is certainly making it hard to know if it'll be wellies or trainers for Glastonbury.

Would it be fair to say we are trending towards a showery pattern next week with potential HP building back in for the weekend? 

Also, I was wondering if someone could let me know what times the ECM model updates? I'm aware of the GFS times but struggling to find online what time to expect the ECM runs.

Many Thanks

Around 7.10 start and 8.00 finish for ECM, both AM and PM. That's going by WXCharts; not sure if any other sites get it earlier at all.

[mb018538]

12z UKV has a 35c close to the coast of the Norfolk/Suffolk border

[Captain Shortwave]

Arpege has a high of 36c towards the London area. Anywhere really from the East Midlands south and east are in with a chance of approaching the mid 30s.

 

There is quite a westerly element to the breeze, which means areas on the south coast will be warmer, whilst central Midlands westwards will be impacted by the breeze of the Atlantic.
 

30c on Saturday close to the south coast. Cooler the further north you go.
 

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[mushymanrob]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

There is quite a westerly element to the breeze, which means areas on the south coast will be warmer, whilst central Midlands westwards will be impacted by the breeze of the Atlantic.
 

 

 

Interesting, an undercutting cool breeze creating an inversion?.. could be quite dull if thats the case.

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Arpege has a high of 36c towards the London area. Anywhere really from the East Midlands south and east are in with a chance of approaching the mid 30s.

 

There is quite a westerly element to the breeze, which means areas on the south coast will be warmer, whilst central Midlands westwards will be impacted by the breeze of the Atlantic.
 

30c on Saturday close to the south coast. Cooler the further north you go.
 

 

Even Arpege underestimated todays maxes by 1C, it went for 27C around London. 37C for Friday?