Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

Saturday washout gone on the 12z gfs!!phew!!please stay that way!!yeh its cooler but dont want the rain!!!most of sunday loooking good as well!!!brilliant stuff!!too good to be true?!!

Edited June 15, 2022 by sheikhy

[StormChaseUK]

12z is more realistic now,   gone is the 8C to 34C fantasy dreamland with a change to the 17C to 27C range.  

[clark3r]

36 on arpege for Friday very hot, Saturday high maybe squeeze 30, tbh today has felt hot in the sun, models have been fascinating to watch 

[MattStoke]

Hottest chart yet from the Arpege. A couple of 36’C  

[Sweatyman]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Interesting, an undercutting cool breeze creating an inversion?.. could be quite dull if thats the case.

 

bound to be innit fgs

[I remember Atlantic 252]

will we get a childhood hot Wimbledon!

[sheikhy]

Much much drier gfs!!get in!!!arpege giving me a 33 degrees on friday!man thats gona be hot!!

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Interesting, an undercutting cool breeze creating an inversion?.. could be quite dull if thats the case.

 

The models don’t show too much, there is low cloud on the Arpege running through the Bristol Channel and along the west coast of Wales but temperatures look ok.

I have to admit I suspect the gig is up for anything exceptional on Saturday. There is likely to be a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain developing. That said there will probably bet bits and pieces of sunshine that could deliver something warm across the south. All eyes of Friday in regards to how close we get to the June record.

Further ahead, the models still seem torn between a Scandi trough taking hold and something much warmer and more settled (not the extreme of the coming couple of days but decent enough), if high pressure was able to extend over the UK

Edited June 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Roadrunner]

Amazing that we still can't nail down where the convergence point will be on Saturday. What is clear to me though is the amount of rain does seem to be lessening which is good news. No doubt there will be some areas that fair better than others. 

Another stupid question - why would the rain risk / amount be lessening as we move closer to Saturday? Is it that the models always overdo this type of scenario? 

[bluearmy]

ec op has maxes around 32c Fri pm 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Amazing that we still can't nail down where the convergence point will be on Saturday. What is clear to me though is the amount of rain does seem to be lessening which is good news. No doubt there will be some areas that fair better than others. 

Another stupid question - why would the rain risk / amount be lessening as we move closer to Saturday? Is it that the models always overdo this type of scenario? 

If it’s convective or storm ppn then they often overcook it. They usually have a good handle on big standard frontal rain.

[bluearmy]

Ec op pushes euro heights nw run by run sat/sun 

cross model agreement now that the trough to our ne won’t actually connect with the cut off feature to our sw until much later in the weekend which could mean that it won’t happen at all. 

[Roadrunner]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op pushes euro heights nw run by run sat/sun 

cross model agreement now that the trough to our ne won’t actually connect with the cut off feature to our sw until much later in the weekend which could mean that it won’t happen at all. 

Good news that. The link up would presumably have produced the high precip totals that were touted 24 hours or so ago on the models. Links in well to the more fragmented showers now showing. As long as it keeps going this way reducing the rainfall run on run I'm all good with that, like Skeikhy! 

[mb018538]

 

GEM day 10 with the sort of classic uk summer chart - Azores high ridging in - that you don’t see so much these days!

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

GEM day 10 with the sort of classic uk summer chart - Azores high ridging in - that you don’t see so much these days!

I like that one, reminds me of 80's/90's

[sunnijim]

3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

We won't be seeing thirties on Saturday anywhere in my opinion perhaps 28c tops!

They clearly have other ideas today at least!

https://www.instagram.com/p/Ce0KyAtI9gw/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

Edited June 15, 2022 by sunnijim

[sheikhy]

Brilliant ukv for my area at the weekend and a move toward gfs!!no rain at all on the latest run for the midlands just dry warm and sunny!!!temps of 18 degrees!!

33 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Good news that. The link up would presumably have produced the high precip totals that were touted 24 hours or so ago on the models. Links in well to the more fragmented showers now showing. As long as it keeps going this way reducing the rainfall run on run I'm all good with that, like Skeikhy! 

Yup also ecm 12z was more fragmented as well!!!ukv 15z keeps me dry!!!

[Mark wheeler]

Temps on latest Harmonie run ( last frame ) 

Would have loved to see the next frame. 

Edited June 15, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Iceman2606]

This evening's ECM, GFS and ICON 12z runs with UKV 15z all in agreement for heat this Friday with temps raging from 30-33°C or higher in a few spots.?☀

 

[Iceman2606]

ARPEGE still going for 35-36°C for parts of London on Friday threatening the June all time record.

[TwisterGirl81]

12 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

ARPEGE still going for 35-36°C for parts of London on Friday threatening the June all time record.

Looks to be 34c around Exeter according  to that chart and our record was 33.5c funnily enough in June 1976 I do believe and historically one of the best summers ever I read so if this happens our all time record temperature goes....We were one of the warmest spots today strangely enough and we never are unless its in winter.

Edited June 15, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[Don]

Wondering just how long the heat will stay away for after the weekend?!

[Met.]

51 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

ARPEGE still going for 35-36°C for parts of London on Friday threatening the June all time record.

Poor old Manchester only getting 22 degrees...

Edited June 15, 2022 by Thundershine

[Alexis]

6 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Poor old Manchester only getting 22 degrees...

If Cheshire is 27, no way Manchester is going to be 22. Rochdale maybe.

[Met.]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

If Cheshire is 27, no way Manchester is going to be 22. Rochdale maybe.

That's what I mean, some odd looking temp gradients there.