Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into another heatwave


Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this summer, the summer chat thread is already very active, so please head over there.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    UKMO is the first operational run to turn it unsettled by days 5/6. It's an outlier at present with no other op runs showing this but it was there on the GEFS control run last night. Suppression of Atlantic HP occurring on this run.

    image.thumb.png.59fdce65629c9658c9ae49643badae4e.png

    The mean from the GEFS currently sits Saturday's rain somewhere between Brum and the Scottish borders

    image.thumb.png.ecb818df862cd7268eefae5b3da7a2d1.png

    Edited by CreweCold
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Fits the format. .. swerving. To sweltering!. When the operationals are stammering! The outs/ cluster lines = 500s speak!! Cape storm potential is ripe in with it..

    7BD2E493-E3F6-464B-B2F9-EF1710925167.png

    522A5ABA-9B48-42CB-AE72-18BD5540EB6F.png

    Edited by tight isobar
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    There does seem to be a new signal being picked up this morning...the UKMO perhaps being a bit hasty. GFS wants to bring back proper N blocking into FI...HP now residing where LP has been projected over the last few runs (Greenland area)

    image.thumb.png.8cf498ee507db7fdb509f2928a364f1d.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    And back into the heat. GFS has 35C on Saturday now but interestingly the mean has nudge out about 12hrs (same on last nights 18Z) with uppers around 17-18C still into Saturday evening. 
     

    C70E5DB5-BC76-4845-9B87-2924E0F9E6B4.thumb.jpeg.25e3c2c0ad22ab6222fe61a7f0b442d3.jpeg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Arpege going for 34C for Friday. Can’t wait to see UKV, both Friday and Saturday could make interesting viewing! 

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton

    Ukm has 21 over the south east on Saturday if skies are clear and winds fall light could be very hot I would imagine, gfs has 31 on Friday, so would think 32/33 possible and 35 Saturday so again could be 36/37 if conditions are right, just one run of course, another thing to note is a massive drop in temp on Sunday just around 13 degrees max temp, then the following week has pleasant warmth, let’s see what ecm has to say.

    also wondering if the ukm would have thunderstorms on Saturday night

    ukv has 35 and a 36 in the midlands for Friday, and has 32 on Saturday for south east

    Edited by clark3r
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Arpege going for 34C for Friday. Can’t wait to see UKV, both Friday and Saturday could make interesting viewing! 

    So if you take that at face value... yesterday we were predicted across the board in my location (just west of Heathrow) at 5pm yesterday 20c 

    The actual temperature was 24.6c and at 5:34 it managed to get to 25.1c.

    I was confused so my brother checked all local weather stations to us... all reading the same. The urban heat island effect of Heathrow this time of year is phenomenal, that mass of concrete adds 3-4c to formatted temperatures 

    Edited by Surrey
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
    44 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    So if you take that at face value... yesterday we were predicted across the board in my location (just west of Heathrow) at 5pm yesterday 20c 

    The actual temperature was 24.6c and at 5:34 it managed to get to 25.1c.

    I was confused so my brother checked all local weather stations to us... all reading the same. The urban heat island effect of Heathrow this time of year is phenomenal, that mass of concrete adds 3-4c to formatted temperatures 

    That happens even outside large urban areas. We’re a small town by the seaside and the temperature during a warm/hot spell will often exceed the forecast by 2c - 4c.

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    UKV going for a new June record on Friday. 36’C.

    564CF644-219B-4C85-8D9D-063E51CFB5FF.jpeg

    Still looks a bit extreme compared to everything else. I reckon 32 or maybe 33c looks the best bet. 35-36c would be insane!

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

    UKV going for a new June record on Friday. 36’C.

    564CF644-219B-4C85-8D9D-063E51CFB5FF.jpeg

    What’s it got for Saturday?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
  • Location: Sompting, west sussex 10 miles west from brighton
    Just now, Alderc said:

    What’s it got for Saturday?

    Max of 32 in the south east for Saturday 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol
    4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Still looks a bit extreme compared to everything else. I reckon 32 or maybe 33c looks the best bet. 35-36c would be insane!

    Definitely right on the upper end of the models, ARPEGE reaches 33C maybe 34C, GFS not far off now either. Logically, the UKV is by far the highest resolution model we have, so in theory it should be best in forecasting min/max temperatures. The fact that the UKV has consistently been forecasting 34-36C too, to me assuming it produces the same values the day before then if we don't see temperatures of 34-36C then I think it will be a bit of a disaster from the UKV tbh.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ukv going for 35 36 degrees for me!!now who would have thought the midlands would be the hottest place in the uk on friday!!!!!if it happens

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Definitely right on the upper end of the models, ARPEGE reaches 33C maybe 34C, GFS not far off now either. Logically, the UKV is by far the highest resolution model we have, so in theory it should be best in forecasting min/max temperatures. The fact that the UKV has consistently been forecasting 34-36C too, to me assuming it produces the same values the day before then if we don't see temperatures of 34-36C then I think it will be a bit of a disaster from the UKV tbh.

    GEM reaches 35’C.

    GFS 33’C but is normally 2-3’C too low.

    UKMO only about 31’C.

    ICON 32’C.

    Edited by MattStoke
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    GEM has a high of 34c across Norfolk on Friday. 


    image.thumb.png.fc13d589c37c0ea5262fb143cae5690e.png
     

    Arpege - Around 33c

    image.thumb.png.24576e4156ffdae2ed612ca01391454c.png
     

    Still no idea regarding the weekend. The models are toying with developing a low close to our south. This could turn conditions very wet, but other outcomes are possible if the position is different come the weekend.

     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK

    Latest outlook for this weekend from Matt Hugo - “Troublesome transition this weekend continues.. 00z GFS ENS highlights for N Eng. Note the ‘clean’ drop in theta-e from yesterday’s 12z on Sat which is no longer present on the 00z run. Possible developing low (00z UKMO eg) over France the catalyst for delaying clearance of heat’

     

    B5358059-FA12-43A9-A8B2-73DDB2C69B1D.jpeg

    C11C0014-AC17-4EFA-9A4B-1DD563471083.jpeg

    ABB33101-3F49-492B-B52D-E4C62DC09489.jpeg

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Wow if you dont like rain do not take a look at the ecm!!!washout for most of england saturday sunday and maybe monday!!!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Wow if you dont like rain do not take a look at the ecm!!!washout for most of england saturday sunday and maybe monday!!!

    It is however closer to GFS for Saturday and keeps the hot air London to Devon with little rain in those areas before 18Z, Sunday is however an absolute drowning…..will look forward to taking off in that at Gatwick….

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So with 72-96 hours to go, we're still on the cusp of some special temperatures. I think 32C/90F for Friday is pretty much in the bag. Whilst I can't see Friday going above 34/35C, Saturday is still one to watch. Most models are just a 50-100 mile correction away from something extremely hot in the south east, and GFS this morning gets there with 35C, which probably means more since GFS has always undershot heatwave temperatures in recent years. My sense is that a correction to something hotter might be a little too much to ask for on the ECM/UKMO as often models will speed things up a little at D3 and send everything east, but it's a complex situation with that low in Biscay and perhaps it's not so certain.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    Ecm is the worst of the models this morning literally from start to finish lol!!hope its an outlier from saturday!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Incidentally the ec46 was much Improved weeks 3/4 compared to previous output.

    this obvs takes even more confidence away from what is already a low bar for weeks 3/4 

    interestingly, up until the past day or so, the Meto 30 dayer had been fairly optimistic for early July which puzzled me somewhat. Now I note it has gone to where I would have expected it to be based on the past few runs of the 46. Will they now change their wording on the back of one run??  Presumably their own model had also flipped less settled - hence the change this week. Would be typical for them to now need to flip back again! 

    5 minutes ago, Paul said:

    UKV sticking to its guns and keeping it hot, as in 35c+ this Friday.

    fri-hot-again.png

    35 right by the wash ??

    methinks it may need a re calibration!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

    UKV going for a new June record on Friday. 36’C.

    564CF644-219B-4C85-8D9D-063E51CFB5FF.jpeg

    564CF644-219B-4C85-8D9D-063E51CFB5FF.thumb.jpg.f12372e5cad8efe4f410b203e166fefb.jpg

    Also has the hottest temps around where I live too. That 36C isn't that far away from me at all.

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Paul changed the title to Model Output Discussion - Into another heatwave

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...