Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Summer8906]

29 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Happy with a wet outlook to be honest. We had a very wet opening  ten days to the month so perhaps we could be on for quite a wet November, exactly what we need to fill those reservoirs and get the groundwater totals up. Grim as it may be sometimes, it’s what we need. Long spells of anticyclonic weather would be worse in the long term. Plus, Atlantic driven weather can usually bring a lot of sunshine in between rain bands. 

 

Not sure about "quite wet", I think this could end up being one of the wettest Novembers on record, and perhaps one of the wettest months of any name on record if the GFS06Z is anything to go by.

Every day until the 25th looks wet, though that run is showing a dry final five days of the month as an anticyclone finally builds in. 00Z is even worse, with the 28th the next likely dry day.

To be honest here in south Hampshire I'd be very surprised if there is any talk of drought by the time the month ends. It will have been a very wet autumn and close to record-breakingly wet November if current model runs are anything to go by. 2022 as a whole will not be notably dry, I suspect. I think next spring will have to be very dry indeed for there to be any talk of water problems next year.

Certainly ironic that an incredible 21C temp in mid-November (find it hard to understand how such a figure can be reached with the sun so low in the sky and extremely restricted daylight hours) has taken place in what will end up being such a miserable, dull, wet month overall. Imagine if the same synoptics had occurred in a really dry autumn following a dry summer with the ground bone dry - could it have gone even higher?

How about placing bets for 30C next Easter (and Easter is early April), 32C on the Coronation day and 35C at the end of May? All as short-lived heat spikes, of course, with much more average temps in-between.

Anyway, fed up of this autumn-winter season already. Roll on March 2023, lighter days, and the time of the year when the Atlantic traditionally goes quiet.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 14/11/2022 at 00:37, matt111 said:

Noticed a daffodil has sprung up in the garden already, I know some of them are often quite early but this early is taking it to the extreme

About three months earlier than usual, and we haven't had any "spring signals" (e.g. a period of cold weather followed by mild) which would normally trigger them. Very odd.

 

On another matter: was I the only one who didn't find the weekend that warm?

I actually thought Sat in particular was decidedly chilly. I'm guessing it's because the DP had dropped, having been ridiculously high for weeks, as drier air (briefly) put in an appearance. So it was (guessing) 15C with a DP of 8C rather than 15C with a DP of 15C, and hence felt colder.

Saturday actually felt (to me) like the coldest day since the last week of September. I do know that I am sensitive to DP: for example a sunny day of 10C temps in mid-winter in Greece with very dry air feels like a similar 6C day in the UK, and I have felt slightly cold in 21C temps in Greece before, again presumably due to the dry air.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Summer8906

[Weather Enthusiast91]

41 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Happy with a wet outlook to be honest. We had a very wet opening  ten days to the month so perhaps we could be on for quite a wet November, exactly what we need to fill those reservoirs and get the groundwater totals up. Grim as it may be sometimes, it’s what we need. Long spells of anticyclonic weather would be worse in the long term. Plus, Atlantic driven weather can usually bring a lot of sunshine in between rain bands. 

Yes, I am actually glad we are having a wet autumn this time round. Those who hate the rain have been very fortunate really as we have had three consecutive seasons drier than average. I am glad we are experiencing something different and more interesting. 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Bristawl Si]

56 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Anyway, fed up of this autumn-winter season already. Roll on March 2023, lighter days, and the time of the year when the Atlantic traditionally goes quiet.

Kind of. Today reminds me why i'd prefer a drier climate. But the weekend was ace though. If only we could get dry and sunny, 17c throughout Winter?

Must admit i'm struggling how 'a few' in the Mad thread are getting excited about 8c and more rain to come, just because the cooler temps feel more like Winter.

[Sunny76]

Sick and tired of this bloody rain.

Don’t mind showers, but this all day rain is so annoying. 

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

Kind of. Today reminds me why i'd prefer a drier climate. But the weekend was ace though. If only we could get dry and sunny, 17c throughout Winter?

Must admit i'm struggling how 'a few' in the Mad thread are getting excited about 8c and more rain to come, just because the cooler temps feel more like Winter.

If we had a winter like Saturday, and Sunday I would gladly take it, if that’s the next option to dry and cold.

Nothing about a wet winter is appealing. I know we need the rain, but I feel it’s gone the other way now.

[Sunny76]

55 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Yes, I am actually glad we are having a wet autumn this time round. Those who hate the rain have been very fortunate really as we have had three consecutive seasons drier than average. I am glad we are experiencing something different and more interesting. 

It’s too much now and there’s nothing interesting about long periods of rain.

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

About three months earlier than usual, and we haven't had any "spring signals" (e.g. a period of cold weather followed by mild) which would normally trigger them. Very odd.

 

On another matter: was I the only one who didn't find the weekend that warm?

I actually thought Sat in particular was decidedly chilly. I'm guessing it's because the DP had dropped, having been ridiculously high for weeks, as drier air (briefly) put in an appearance. So it was (guessing) 15C with a DP of 8C rather than 15C with a DP of 15C, and hence felt colder.

Saturday actually felt (to me) like the coldest day since the last week of September. I do know that I am sensitive to DP: for example a sunny day of 10C temps in mid-winter in Greece with very dry air feels like a similar 6C day in the UK, and I have felt slightly cold in 21C temps in Greece before, again presumably due to the dry air.

It was very mild, but it wasn’t warm for t shirt and shorts. Some people are just overdramatic lol.

It just felt like a very mild autumn’s day, and nothing more. Nothing close to summer type warmth. 

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, Frigid said:

In a very warm year we've had our fair share of cooler periods of weather, albeit very brief. There was a week of sunny frosty days in January, End of March/April which saw our first snowfall of the season..crazy. That very chilly Jubilee Sunday, and then the cooler latter part of September. 

I know its not over yet but It's hard to reminisce the cooler parts of 2022 given the sheer amount of unprecedented warmth shadowing it, but we did have some so not a complete writeoff. Just hope 2023 has more to offer than southerlies and warm anticyclones! 

Yeah we still had some cold periods. Soon after the new year, think around 3rd jan, it turned cold and sunny. It was fairly frosty also.

Some periods during February and March were chilly and also early May. Late September also had some cold nights.

[Chris Smith]

My God. And to think I thought yesterday was dark.

[Rain All Night]

The S word is back

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The S word is back

Sheet?

[iceman1991]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The S word is back

Not getting my hopes up how many times through the years it’s back tracked on wording and we end up with Westley winds and evreyone throws toys out pram lol

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, Bristle Si said:

Kind of. Today reminds me why i'd prefer a drier climate. But the weekend was ace though. If only we could get dry and sunny, 17c throughout Winter?

Must admit i'm struggling how 'a few' in the Mad thread are getting excited about 8c and more rain to come, just because the cooler temps feel more like Winter.

I will agree that Sat and Sun were unseasonably sunny.

However those two days, together with the dry and cloudy Thurs and Fri last week, are, IIRC, the only dry days we've had in November to date.

Given the GFS is suggesting the next dry day will be sometime between approximately the 26th and 28th, this month will overall be a complete rainfest. An autumn equivalent of a summer month which is mostly dull and wet, but goes up to about 32C for a couple of days, and 35C in isolated spots.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Summer8906

[danm]

The type of weather we've had today is amongst the worst on offer in the UK. Let's hope some of the tentative signs of blocking showing in the models come to fruition. At the very least some frost and cold, sunny days would be nice. 

[Mapantz]

254.4mm of rain here, since the beginning of October.

[RJBingham]

Hope everyone is enjoying the seasonal weather 

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

The S word is back

Lets hope they have better luck than the last time...we ended up with temperatures just shy of 20 c on the weekend they predicted snow in the west!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

6 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s too much now and there’s nothing interesting about long periods of rain.

I would often agree. But on this occasion we do need it whether we like it or not, as the drought is still far from over in some areas. Also, we haven't really had much rain up until September so I really started to miss it. As is the case with many things if you don't experience much of them for a long period of time. Conversely, I'd feel the same way if we didn't have much sun for a long period of time.

I just hope 2023 will be a lot more balanced and varied and offers something for everybody.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[johncam]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Lets hope they have better luck than the last time...we ended up with temperatures just shy of 20 c on the weekend they predicted snow in the west!

Just mentioned this in model thread 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

50 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I would often agree. But on this occasion we do need it whether we like it or not, as the drought is still far from over in some areas. Also, we haven't really had much rain up until September so I really started to miss it. As is the case with many things if you don't experience much of them for a long period of time. Conversely, I'd feel the same way if we didn't have much sun for a long period of time.

I just hope 2023 will be a lot more balanced and varied and offers something for everybody.

 

I feel the same. It can rain every day until 1st December then it needs to turn into snow lol!

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I feel the same. It can rain every day until 1st December then it needs to turn into snow lol!

First 10 days of Dec 10 followed by next 10 of Dec 81 finished with last 11 days of Dec 09 or 95 not too much to ask! 

[reef]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

254.4mm of rain here, since the beginning of October.

293.0mm here since 1st March!

Still only 371.8mm here in all of 2022.

We need 49.4mm in the remaining 15 days of November to give an Autumn total equal to the 1991-2020 average.

[Chris Smith]

Yeah, the autumnal rains that have had those in the south all in a lather since October, have mostly missed us here in the NE. The Pennines mostly do their job I suppose - although today, they were completely overwhelmed and we got a pasting.

The weeks of the semi-permanent cutoff low to the SW threw rains across the south, and up the Irish Sea, but pretty much missed us.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Chris Smith said:

Yeah, the autumnal rains that have had those in the south all in a lather since October, have mostly missed us here in the NE. The Pennines mostly do their job I suppose - although today, they were completely overwhelmed and we got a pasting.

The weeks of the semi-permanent cutoff low to the SW threw rains across the south, and up the Irish Sea, but pretty much missed us.

Wet Autumn here but had many wetter.

[KTtom]

10 hours ago, johncam said:

Just mentioned this in model thread 

Bet that went down well