Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Adam lufc]

Ecm very surprised. Was expecting a belter.

But instead we get worst case scenario

[dryfie]

I wonder at what stage the Met contact Downing St. and put into motion the necessary procedures to gear up for this.  You'd like to think first thing Monday, but somehow I doubt lt.

A good proportion of the populace just isn't able to cope with the increased costs which will be involved.  Personally, we are not on mains gas and have to rely on oil.  The price of this has doubled in the past year and, unlike gas users, no firm announcements have been made about assistance.  My best estimate, given a normal winter was about £3200 for all heating and lighting.

Of even greater concern is what will be the effect on the citizens of eastern Europe, particularly those experiencing power shortages already.  A period of extended extreme cold is likely to cause deaths by the thousands.  Taking all of this into consideration, I'm praying that all of this peurile speculation comes to nought, and that a normal winter ensues.  Given the alternative and possible consequences, I hope that all right minded folk will be praying for the same.

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, dryfie said:

I wonder at what stage the Met contact Downing St. and put into motion the necessary procedures to gear up for this. 

May I ask, gear up for what?

[markyo]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

May I ask, gear up for what?

That's obvious.

[blizzard81]

42 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

You've been watching too much of the World Cup.

I'm probably being dim lol but I don't get that?

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I'm probably being dim lol but I don't get that?

Lol, it sounds like commentary from the footy ie scoring a goal just at the right time.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Lol, it sounds like commentary from the footy ie scoring a goal just at the right time.

Ha ha ha of course. I was a little dim there for not getting that lol. 

[ChannelThunder]

That's a raw, yucky easterly setting up for next weekend but apparently it is a good thing, going by the mad thread! 

Edited November 27, 2022 by ResonantChannelThunder

[Stabilo19]

31 minutes ago, dryfie said:

I wonder at what stage the Met contact Downing St. and put into motion the necessary procedures to gear up for this.  You'd like to think first thing Monday, but somehow I doubt lt.

Of even greater concern is what will be the effect on the citizens of eastern Europe, particularly those experiencing power shortages already.  A period of extended extreme cold is likely to cause deaths by the thousands.  

???

There’s no significantly cold weather on the cards for the UK, nor is there extreme cold to our east. 

[Sceptical]

28 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

May I ask, gear up for what?

The Day after tomorrow UK style.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

That's a raw, yucky easterly setting up for next weekend but apparently it's is a good thing, going by the mad thread! 

very yucky, 7 degrees and rain, no thanks! cold prospects like many years well in FI

[Dancerwithwings]

30 minutes ago, Adam lufc said:

Ecm very surprised. Was expecting a belter.

But instead we get worst case scenario

The worst case scenario is when it goes tits up 72z into the run, looking at this 12z output,  it’s only just starts right at the end of the run, and that’s only because the LP down South starts to drift Northward at day 10….

Long way to go and many a run before that may happen.

[ChannelThunder]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

very yucky, 7 degrees and rain, no thanks! cold prospects like many years well in FI

Yeah, it looks like very grey skies, no sunlight and plenty of very cold drizzle in a pretty raw breeze to me, not ideal. 

I can't complain too much, however, as it's been a pretty interesting autumn that's featured a fair few of my 'weather preferences', albeit with a distinct lack of named storms. I'm also glad for a little break in the frontal rainfall to let the ground drain itself, given we've seemingly made fairly decent progress on the deficit from the summer.

[Skullzrulerz]

13 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

That's a raw, yucky easterly setting up for next weekend but apparently it is a good thing, going by the mad thread! 

Hopefully it be dry at the very least.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Hopefully it be dry at the very least.

Aye in Cornwall, but looks very wet for Midlands, GFS precip charts are showing too dry

[Andy Bown]

Well I can certainly say I am looking forward to a dry spell. 229mm of rain this month! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I went for 194mm in the November 'game' may have underestimated it

[Day 10]

22 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

The Day after tomorrow UK style.

 

Picking up on before, I've never rated that model

[summer blizzard]

Can't say I'm displeased with the output tonight. 

We have the para, GEM and UKMO Vs Euro and GFS (2nd, 3rd and 4th best model in the world Vs 1st for operationals).

More importantly though, both ensemble means go with the cold camp.

[Day 10]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Picking up on before, I've never rated that model

Sorry wrong person

[LetItSnow!]

For rainfall, an average September and October and a very wet November down here will probably make a for a slightly wetter than average autumn, the first since summer 2021 I believe. In comparison to 2021, I would say that this autumn has been slightly more autumnal feeling, but not by much. The second-half of September brought some cold, northerlies, but otherwise its often been very mild. November 2021 at least had a cold end to November, though it brought nothing to London other than some frost. Not an autumn I'll look back on overly fondly for weather. I think the autumn of 2016 is the benchmark of a perfect autumn and it's far behind that. It did manage to contain the most severe thunderstorm I've ever experienced on the 23rd of October, due to a very moist southwesterly from an unusually mild continent. 

 

As for the wet November, I'm grateful for it for obvious reasons. If we get a wet or snowy winter then we don't have to worry about serious implications for next spring and summer. With the drought and the cost of living/heating crisis, you really would hope for a winter like 1973/1974, very mild and very wet. 

[Chris Smith]

There's a lot of folks here who see an Easterly and immediately think "Beast from the East" or "2010" or "You remember 1987?".

Having lived near or around the East Coast of England most of my life, I can confirm that an Easterly usually means a solid grey low ceiling, a 2/3c daily range in temperature, 95%+ RH, and a great deal of grimness.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, had a similar model spell this time last year, horrible E'ly this, my area saw nothing wintry at all

[78/79]

 Apparently Darren Betts was spotted kicking the office cat, there must be something brewing

[S Bragg]

I'll take an easterly, *any* kind of easterly over what we've been having for what seems like forever.  Whether we end up in the freezer, or just get sat under a slack, chilly easterly it'll be a lot better than the rain and mild we've had in recent weeks.