Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Chris Smith]

3 minutes ago, S Bragg said:

I'll take an easterly, *any* kind of easterly over what we've been having for what seems like forever.  Whether we end up in the freezer, or just get sat under a slack, chilly easterly it'll be a lot better than the rain and mild we've had in recent weeks.

My gas bill would beg to differ.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

13 hours ago, SunSean said:

Forecast is absolutely abysmal for the next few weeks- 100% cloud cover and around 6-8 degrees with drizzle at times. December is always the most boring month weather wise around these parts and looks the same again this year. Even though i hate being cold, i would much rather zero degrees with sunshine and a bit of snow over endless gloomy grey skies! Sunshine is always the main factor for me, not really too fussed on temperature so i'm fine with 40 degrees or minus 5 degrees as long as the sun is out haha.

I think whether it is dry or not makes a huge difference too.  I tend to feel the cold more when it is 10 Celsius and raining than 0 Celsius and sunny. 

[RJBingham]

OK, this epic cold spell is going too far now, the GFS is suggesting we might get a frost.............................in about 10 days.

Edited November 28, 2022 by RJBingham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think whether it is dry or not makes a huge difference too.  I tend to feel the cold more when it is 10 Celsius and raining than 0 Celsius and sunny. 

complete opposite to me, feels balmy Dec to Feb when wet, must be dew points/humidity, feels much colder when dry

[Weather-history]

I see the model thread is starting turn into the pile of manure, it often it does at this time of the year, where you have to sift through to find the nuggets. And there are nuggets there but you have to find them.

People who haven't posted during the summer suddenly cropping up.

"The told you so" brigade bragging about something that hasn't even happened yet. Wait until after the event for analysis and then show humility anyway.

The panic merchants who fret on whether the Scandi High/Greenland high is 5mb weaker on this run.   Its the ruddy weather, you can't control it, only a fool gets a stomach ulcer over  something they can't control.

Then  I look at the calendar, to make sure its still the 28th November.  That's right, the 28th November..not the 28th February. The models are producing charts that we don't often see at this time of the year.

Rant over.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Weather-history

[Paul_1978]

44 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I see the model thread is starting turn into the pile of manure, it often it does at this time of the year, where you have to sift through to find the nuggets. And there are nuggets there but you have to find them.

People who haven't posted during the summer suddenly cropping up.

"The told you so" brigade bragging about something that hasn't even happened yet. Wait until after the event for analysis and then show humility anyway.

The panic merchants who fret on whether the Scandi High/Greenland high is 5mb weaker on this run.   Its the ruddy weather, you can't control it, only a fool gets a stomach ulcer over  something they can't control.

Then  I look at the calendar, to make sure its still the 28th November.  That's right, the 28th November..not the 28th February. The models are producing charts that we don't often see at this time of the year.

Rant over.

I’ve got a lot of people blocked and therefore only see posts from the posters who I know don’t go over the top or post daft one liners, and it makes for a much more pleasant reading on the thread!

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Ar, I’m so angry with the models this morning. I mean why couldn’t the developing North-Easterly for next week on the GFS be very very very very slightly stronger. The 850 hPa temperatures are 0.01% too warm and the blocking to the North of the UK could do being 0.0001% stronger. And seriously, that 10 day ECMWF ensemble mean is a joke. Why couldn’t that mean Low to the South of the UK just be 1 mile further East? Is making me feel so negative

The weather will do what it wants to do, honestly as long as it's dry that's what I care about.

A pleasant winters day is the best thing 

[Downburst]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

complete opposite to me, feels balmy Dec to Feb when wet, must be dew points/humidity, feels much colder when dry

And I am the opposite to you, my house is roasting is still weather in Winter and it's actually necessary to turn the heating down and off upstairs. Anyway, your preference is the lucky one as that's more or less the default. Mind you a keen easterly even if dry is no joke if you're not dressed correctly. 

To Ramp a little, in the nether regions of 240hrs on the ECM there is a low pressure near enough positioned with high pressure to the north west to bring in a fair bit of snow into Scotland. It's possible with this setup, but of course this setup is a virtual setup, but nice it's showing

Wednesday 7th, snow is blue/purple

 

Pressure Setup

[Bald Eagle]

2 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

I’ve got a lot of people blocked and therefore only see posts from the posters who I know don’t go over the top or post daft one liners, and it makes for a much more pleasant reading on the thread!

I'm going to start doing this. It really does spoil the read and it's the same suspects over and over again. 

[Stabilo19]

The very cold weather has been 10 days away.. for the past 10 days lol

 

 

 

[WarwickshireLad]

I prefer to always focus on the weather other the next few days rather than 10 days away so you will never catch me in the model thread, doing the latter has always drove me mad and met me with lots of disappointments in the past, lol 

[Weatherman_93]

Nothing drastic over the next week..

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Weatherman_93

[RJBingham]

The BBC have got me down for sleet showers, and a gentle breeze on the 10th 

[Summer of 95]

Any chance of an air frost? Latest date for the first one here in last 35 years is 1st Dec in 2009, that seems under threat now. Last night I thought might do it as it was clear and calm but no (a recurring theme since 2013)- cloudy "failed easterlies" wont give much chance of one either, just 5C day and night.

That fortnight without sunshine in December 2021 is still fresh in the memory.... Please not again!

[tinybill]

i know  we  must  not mention  the  s  word!!  but  in fantasy world  on the gfs  things could be changing  from about  306  hr   with  snow coming  down the country  from scotland

[Skullzrulerz]

 

 

 

 

 

[Valleyboy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

here she comes.......

No northerlies please, they only look good on paper.  On the ground, very little to excite us, especially in the south.  I’ll put up with northerlies, providing they eventually back northeast / east.

[Valleyboy]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Forget beast from the east it looks more like a beast from the north incoming on the gfs!!!

You really don’t get northerly beasts!  It just doesn’t happen.

[Skullzrulerz]

 

 

 

[sorepaw1]

I've just put 4 winter tyres on my Volvo XC70 AWD. With over 40 years winter weather watching and studying as a child, I think we're in for random amounts of snow north to south. 

The winter tyres have cost me £487. So I hope it's worth the investment. 

[Chris Smith]

My partner has an e-bike commute that takes her almost to 300m asl. She's bought an extra wheelset for her bike, sporting some nice spiky ice tyres for those more challenging commutes.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Cold still in FI, 11th Dec or so last few runs, hopefully not getting pushed back everytime

1 hour ago, Valleyboy said:

No northerlies please, they only look good on paper.  On the ground, very little to excite us, especially in the south.  I’ll put up with northerlies, providing they eventually back northeast / east.

A front approaching from right angle will produce, like Nov 19th '96 for me

[Snowyowl9]

Thank goodness the wind is changing direction..

The SW wind and wet cools our house down and blows the smoke down the chimney..

As with anything east wind we are totally sheltered and always nice to here the wind up the top of the wood and calm here..

[Methuselah]

Batten down the hatches everyone... We're going to see the worst imaginary blizzard since December 2021!

[HellItsHot]

Like everyone else, I remember all the excitement pre Christmas last year. Is it a similar set up this year or completely different ? More likely, or should we be preparing for more disappointment? 

Edited November 28, 2022 by HellItsHot