Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mapantz]

I'm not looking forward to the rest of the week and perhaps the next 10 days..

Colder conditions I don't mind, but there's nothing nice about continual grey skies with the threat of drizzle.

[JoeShmoe]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not looking forward to the rest of the week and perhaps the next 10 days..

Colder conditions I don't mind, but there's nothing nice about continual grey skies with the threat of drizzle.

Indeed, temps of 4/5c, slate grey skies and the odd light shower is about the most miserable weather pattern imaginable 

[johncam]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Indeed, temps of 4/5c, slate grey skies and the odd light shower is about the most miserable weather pattern imaginable 

Yep and the booms have started in model thread,  seas are unusually warn to the north of us so any cold will be modified greatly,  can see a lot of disappointment,  hope I am wrong .

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I've skim read the model thread to get a general gist of what's happening. Or not as the case will be ... But i've not really opened any pictures or looked for trends/taken as gospel! I'll start looking from Thursday - 1st day of Winter! But I won't be getting into it too much as I was burned last year with the 48 hour loss of snow! That hurt more than anyone will ever know!

[Summer of 95]

Midnight and it's been crystal clear with no wind since dusk. And still it's not freezing at all, apart from on the cars (always the first place and an artificial surface). Ground still muddy, pavements still wet, bins still covered in dew water. It's late November. I would swear that even 10-15 years ago it would have been frozen everywhere by 7pm in these conditions. 

Upper air temps as I understand don't matter when it comes to frost forming on clear nights in the colder part of the year, too much cloud or wind (used to need a strong wind from a warm direction) were the key factors. 

This has been a pretty consistent feature here since 2013, clear calm nights in the coldest months failing to give frosts (or just dipping below zero at dawn, or falling below early and rising again). Unless there is snow cover, almost nonexistent since except for winters 2020-21 and 2017-18 . Or except for some reason towards the end of the frost season, late Feb/Mar/April when it still often happens even if the days have been much milder (late Feb 2019 and April 2021).

The standard clear frosty Nov/Dec/Jan night, often in between runs of  rainy and/or mild days, with the frost forming after sunset and lasting till morning, with no snow cover or very cold airmasses; a regular occurrence even in mild winters before 2013- is becoming very hard to achieve. 

[cyclonic happiness]

I hope that this is a much better cold spell than 2010 which, for here, had to be one of the most dissapointing cold spells.

Okay, we did get down to minus 17'c , but we had just a slight dusting of snow whilst just 10 miles away, they had 1 foot!   The only notable thing was a nice rime frost for a couple of days, but what's a cold spell with no snow?

2012 was much better imo

[Chris Smith]

The contrast between today and yesterday is stark. Yesterday was thick fog and raw drippy damp all day. It barely bothered to get light at all. Today, the sun is shining and sparkling off the frost. I'm happy if it stays like this for a few days, before the raw cold gloom of the North Sea returns.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Chris Smith

[Snowyowl9]

Looks abit cold..

[Weatherman_93]

43 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Looks abit cold..

Leave these images in the MOD thread! we've now got folks posting images for New Year's Day 

Those guys are on another level.

[Penicuikblizzard]

14 hours ago, johncam said:

Yep and the booms have started in model thread,  seas are unusually warn to the north of us so any cold will be modified greatly,  can see a lot of disappointment,  hope I am wrong .

On the other hand if the uppers end up at say -10c the North Sea will dump some serious snow on the east coast,,,it cannot be ruled out mid to late December 

[Eagle Eye]

Just now, Penicuikblizzard said:

On the other hand if the uppers end up at say -10c the North Sea will dump some serious snow on the east coast,,,it cannot be ruled out mid to late December 

Exactly, it's still very much on a knife edge at the moment.

[Buzz]

Unpopular opinion around here but I sincerely hope we don't get much in the way cold weather, simply because of those who can't afford the extortionate heating costs. It's a dire situation for many but, of course, our opinions count for nothing as the weather will do its own thing.

Sod's law says we'll end up with the coldest winter in living memory and that will of course be a disaster for many in the country.

 

[snowsummer]

Hope im posting in right place! So im not sure how to upload charts. But I can finally read them ( took some years lol) but im not so good at explaining  out loud, even though my brain understands what im reading. Must be an age thing, and talking of age, i was born in the great january  of 63, up in yorkshire. So i think its only fitting that i celebrate my 60th with a rinse and repeat!!!!! I truley believe that we're  staring down the barrel of a severe cold episode, not a snap. The dice  seem to be failing  double 6's everytime. My late son skated on the ice at canvey lake in 2009/10. If we get the cold im anticipating , I'll  be skating on it this winter in his memory. Anyone who can make it to the 'Isle of canvey' please feel free to come and join me.  My 1st ever ramp. And its massive! 

[sorepaw1]

The BBC forecast I saw earlier,   seemed to have a little trepidation about next week's forecast,  at a time when people are worried about heating bills .

The last thing they want to hear on the news is a bitterly cold weather forecast and a cold weather alert . But the stark reality is the charts are suggesting a cold Easterly, 

[WarwickshireLad]

A classic late Autumn/early winter's day today. Dull, dreary and pretty much dark already. I like these  sort of days occasionally for atmospheric reasons but I'm not up for weeks and weeks of it 

[Summer8906]

A classic southern UK winter progression today, i.e if it isn't unsettled, it's gloomy. And it was so promising yesterday, it really looked like we might get two or three days of rare sunny weather.

In fact, today is probably the darkest afternoon of the winter so far, incredibly; even more than Saturday which actually had rain at this time of day yet for whatever reason wasn't quite so intensely gloomy.

Looking at tomorrow's synoptic setup, the first thing that springs to mind is: "if only it were any month from March to October inclusive". If it were within those 8 months, we would, I'm sure, experience glorious warm sunshine.

I am hoping the colder uppers at the weekend will mean we lose the gloom though; IMX anticyclonic gloom is typically associated with high pressure and relatively high uppers. I can see the weekend might give us a cold showery (but not quite cold enough for snow) NE-ly type.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

6 hours ago, Chris Smith said:

The contrast between today and yesterday is stark. Yesterday was thick fog and raw drippy damp all day. It barely bothered to get light at all. Today, the sun is shining and sparkling off the frost. I'm happy if it stays like this for a few days, before the raw cold gloom of the North Sea returns.

An equal contrast down here, but sadly today is the worse one. Yesterday was very clear and mostly sunny with a few widely scattered showers (but not enough to be a problem) and sharply-defined Cb clouds. Today is just a formless gloomy stratus sheet. As I said above my expectation was for some rare dry sunny weather today as I anticipated rising pressure would kill off the showers and we'd be left with just sunshine. But sadly it appears some claggy airmass has got in from somewhere.

Edited November 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, WarwickshireLad said:

A classic late Autumn/early winter's day today. Dull, dreary and pretty much dark already. I like these  sort of days occasionally for atmospheric reasons but I'm not up for weeks and weeks of it 

Agree!! I like it for a change of weather and feeling. But no more than a few days please of I will go insane as it is the worst!

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, WarwickshireLad said:

A classic late Autumn/early winter's day today. Dull, dreary and pretty much dark already. I like these  sort of days occasionally for atmospheric reasons but I'm not up for weeks and weeks of it 

I know what you mean about the atmosphere but I prefer these kind of days at the back end of winter (late Jan/early Feb) because you know then that spring is only weeks away. Also sunset is an hour later, which helps quite a lot; on Jan 29 it will still be full daylight as i write this!

Edited November 29, 2022 by Summer8906

[Sceptical]

A sunny cold day in the NE of Scotland. Temperatures struggling to get above 5c. The morning was much colder

 

[Metwatch]

Quite chilly under the blanket of low cloud & fog this afternoon with even gfs overestimating the daytime maxes by 1-2 degrees. My max only 5.5c today.

 

I reckon it'll be a common theme for most this week as high pressure becomes dominant with weak sun & little in the way of wind to clear it away.

[JoeShmoe]

It’s painful reading the mad thread, it’s like lemmings off a cliff, happens 2 or 3 times every year

 Great charts at 168+, that day after day stay at 168+. Then if we are fortunate to get past that, lower res shortwaves find some way to spoil it. If you only look at t+144 charts , once or twice a day I think that manages expectations !

[Met.]

Today's weather has sure been rubbish. Cold, foggy, drizzly and dull all day. Hopefully not to last.

[Seasonal Trim]

59 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

It’s painful reading the mad thread, it’s like lemmings off a cliff, happens 2 or 3 times every year

 Great charts at 168+, that day after day stay at 168+. Then if we are fortunate to get past that, lower res shortwaves find some way to spoil it. If you only look at t+144 charts , once or twice a day I think that manages expectations !

But if you ask them, no-one's getting carried away, no-one's mentioned 2010 and no-one's going to throw their toys out the pram when this all eventually goes to pot.

[Bradley in Kent]

17 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

Midnight and it's been crystal clear with no wind since dusk. And still it's not freezing at all, apart from on the cars (always the first place and an artificial surface). Ground still muddy, pavements still wet, bins still covered in dew water. It's late November. I would swear that even 10-15 years ago it would have been frozen everywhere by 7pm in these conditions. 

Upper air temps as I understand don't matter when it comes to frost forming on clear nights in the colder part of the year, too much cloud or wind (used to need a strong wind from a warm direction) were the key factors. 

This has been a pretty consistent feature here since 2013, clear calm nights in the coldest months failing to give frosts (or just dipping below zero at dawn, or falling below early and rising again). Unless there is snow cover, almost nonexistent since except for winters 2020-21 and 2017-18 . Or except for some reason towards the end of the frost season, late Feb/Mar/April when it still often happens even if the days have been much milder (late Feb 2019 and April 2021).

The standard clear frosty Nov/Dec/Jan night, often in between runs of  rainy and/or mild days, with the frost forming after sunset and lasting till morning, with no snow cover or very cold airmasses; a regular occurrence even in mild winters before 2013- is becoming very hard to achieve. 

Yes I've noticed this, it was very obvious Friday night into Saturday morning; clear all night no wind yet it didn't go below 5c all night and that's late November! 

When doing paper rounds and walking to school even in the milder winters of the early to mid 00s, there were plenty of frosty mornings and as you say, frost in between fronts during unsettled westerly spells. 

Something not often talked about is the long term increase in dewpoints. It's a chicken or egg scenario in that higher temperatures increase dewpoint but also higher dewpoints trap heat better in the atmosphere. Dewpoints have been increasing just as temperatures have as a consequence of Climate Change. Perhaps compared to 15 years ago our atmosphere is more humid both at ground level to mid-altitude. 

Dewpoints are higher in early winter compared to early spring anyway but perhaps this increase in humidity is more pronounced this time of year compared to Spring which is still seeing frosts. 

Got to say, it's a shame how we're seeing yet another Autumn with no air frosts to speak of here in Kent.