Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

@Roger J Smith

Do you have any thoughts for the coming winter yet?  Well, I'm sure you have but are you going to post them soon?

[Paul_1978]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 looked interesting as we hit November ...

chilly and dry hopefully..

We need rain, not chilly and dry. 

[Bristawl Si]

An extension of Autumn, right through Winter. Average rainfall, average temps.

Punt.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

We need rain, not chilly and dry. 

We? Are you King Charles?

I suspect the greater part of GB & NI have sufficient rain.

We're not all English. 

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

We? Are you King Charles?

I suspect the greater part of GB & NI have sufficient rain.

We're not all English. 

On balance, I think he’s right about the rain. We have enough issues atm without a massive drought in 2023

going to be difficult enough to cope with a month long freeze this winter ! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

On balance, I think he’s right about the rain. We have enough issues atm without a massive drought in 2023

going to be difficult enough to cope with a month long freeze this winter ! 

Spill the beans?!! 

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Spill the beans?!! 

Sarcasm don ,,,,,

[Don]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sarcasm don ,,,,,

Oh really, I would never have guessed lol! 

At least we are looking at a December 2015 repeat this winter which will make it easier to cope! 

[Beanz]

16 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

We? Are you King Charles?

I suspect the greater part of GB & NI have sufficient rain.

We're not all English. 

wow…,what’s this? I’m ok Jack?  Just because your back yard is ok doesn’t mean the whole country is.  Do you live in an area of the U.K. that is entirely self sufficient on every raw material and natural resource? You don’t import anything from anywhere? No, I didn’t think so.  

I think it’s generally accepted the average rainfall across the U.K. has been well below average, many areas are looking at very low water supplies.  We, do need rain, as much I loathe to admit it.  

I also don’t live in an area that experienced seriously low levels of water this year, but the areas that do have adequate supplies will be sending it to areas of the country that don’t if we face a situation where supplies have not been replenished by next summer.  So it affects us all. 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Beanz

[Methuselah]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Sarcasm don ,,,,,

He was in my class in junior school -- we called him 'Sarky'!

Meanwhile (I admit it!) I've no idea what the upcoming winter will be like. But, as a customer of eon, I do have a preference?

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1581744230741200897?cxt=HHwWgsDS7er_vfMrAAAA

Edited October 16, 2022 by sebastiaan1973

[SqueakheartLW]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1581744230741200897?cxt=HHwWgsDS7er_vfMrAAAA

Could do with removing that SE Europe high, otherwise looks quite promising compared with the usual output we see. Best hope there is from northerlies with above average heights in SE Europe as any cold from the east will be diverted down to Greece, Turkey and Egypt.

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1581744230741200897?cxt=HHwWgsDS7er_vfMrAAAA

That's pretty damn fine from where I'm sat.

[damianslaw]

Just seen some comparisons of the Met October forecasts for N-J period and the only three since 2009 that it showed northerly heights were 2009, 2010, 2012... mmm, 2009 took to December though for heights to take control, 2010, spot on, 2012 yo yo heights in Dec- Jan, but was correct with less atlantic influence. It performed very well I would say!

[Don]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Could do with removing that SE Europe high, otherwise looks quite promising compared with the usual output we see. Best hope there is from northerlies with above average heights in SE Europe as any cold from the east will be diverted down to Greece, Turkey and Egypt.

Which would be typical seeing the likes of Athens buried in snow!!  However, the northern latitude blocking looks somewhat more robust than the Euro high, so could over potentially over power it?  That said, it would be better if it did one altogether!

[syed2878]

Given everything that’s happened this year, and the energy crisis going to hit us through out this winter. It would not surprise me if we were to get another winter of discontent. As many folks on here said we need the rain as much as some of us wouldn’t like that. The water supplies needs to be replenished. After all that said, I hope we do get a decent winter after the last few we could do with having a nice snowy one.

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Which would be typical seeing the likes of Athens buried in snow!!  However, the northern latitude blocking looks somewhat more robust than the Euro high, so could over potentially over power it?  That said, it would be better if it did one altogether!

Assuming that you’re looking at anomoly charts, any positive height anomoly to our south is not good. One to our north could just represent the tilt to higher heights in general that we are tending to see. Obvs it’s important to see positive rather than negative up there. The differential north to south will dictate the source of our air. 

[Mike Poole]

8 hours ago, Don said:

Which would be typical seeing the likes of Athens buried in snow!!  However, the northern latitude blocking looks somewhat more robust than the Euro high, so could over potentially over power it?  That said, it would be better if it did one altogether!

With the way winter is looking on the seasonal models, I would expect the best chance of cold shots to be from the north in early winter, rather than the east.  Easterlies tend to be more likely to deliver for the south in the latter half of winter when there has been lots of cooling on the continent, but the models are suggesting a milder second half of winter.  

But with northerly sourced air, it can be a right pain to get snow to my location.  

All of that said, as things stand right now in mid October, we have many more things in our favour than we have had at the same time in recent years, so the chase is definitely on, if nothing else!

GFS 0z has the right idea at the end of the run!

[Premiere Neige]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

With the way winter is looking on the seasonal models, I would expect the best chance of cold shots to be from the north in early winter, rather than the east.  Easterlies tend to be more likely to deliver for the south in the latter half of winter when there has been lots of cooling on the continent, but the models are suggesting a milder second half of winter.  

But with northerly sourced air, it can be a right pain to get snow to my location.  

All of that said, as things stand right now in mid October, we have many more things in our favour than we have had at the same time in recent years, so the chase is definitely on, if nothing else!

GFS 0z has the right idea at the end of the run!

Northerly winds not great for many locations in terms of snow, mainly wishbone snow showers. My preference would be a North Easterly formylocation. Plenty of snow showers driven well inland. 

[damianslaw]

45 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Northerly winds not great for many locations in terms of snow, mainly wishbone snow showers. My preference would be a North Easterly formylocation. Plenty of snow showers driven well inland. 

Depends, much of winter 09-10 was northerly sourced and there was widespread snow often. If you have heights to the NW, low pressure and frontal features can attack from all directions, giving snow from all directions. The straight sourced northerly though is often shortlived associated with low pressure moving into scandi and mid atlantic heights, sometimes troughs are embedded and can last a couple of days, other times its a 24 hr toppler. The key is robust heights to our NW linking in with heights over the Pole as happened in winter 09-10 and Dec 10..

Edited October 17, 2022 by damianslaw

[jules216]

My October analogs are once again doing fantastic Job, september was already very good match. For what its worth a very mild winter in making here in Slovakia also wet as the trough from a west based -NAO pumps southerly as east Európe ridge doesnt allow it to clear eastward, i Can already see this being a dominant state of play.

[iceman1991]

22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

My October analogs are once again doing fantastic Job, september was already very good match. For what its worth a very mild winter in making here in Slovakia also wet as the trough from a west based -NAO pumps southerly as east Európe ridge doesnt allow it to clear eastward, i Can already see this being a dominant state of play.

What’s that meaning for us in the uk ? 

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

What’s that meaning for us in the uk ? 

I would say at times more often then us under cold side of trough, unfortunatelly undome more often then not by lack of deep cold air mass, also i would say once or twice sufficient for snow settling around 200m asl. and Scottland.

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I would say at times more often then us under cold side of trough, unfortunatelly undome more often then not by lack of deep cold air mass, also i would say once or twice sufficient for snow settling around 200m asl. and Scottland.

North Westerlies are not what they used to be locally in the Western Pennines- granted with hills at 400m+ within 5 miles of my front door it can be very snowy in a PM set up but for low lying areas it's usually cold rain.

The warming Atlantic the obvious culprit and the ssts look high again .

Basically I'm at the point whereby anything Atlantic sourced is of little interest,the comparison in Dew points in an East versus West sourced air scenario is chalk and cheese..

 

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

North Westerlies are not what they used to be locally in the Western Pennines- granted with hills at 400m+ within 5 miles of my front door it can be very snowy in a PM set up but for low lying areas it's usually cold rain.

The warming Atlantic the obvious culprit and the ssts look high again .

Basically I'm at the point whereby anything Atlantic sourced is of little interest,the comparison in Dew points in an East versus West sourced air scenario is chalk and cheese..

 

Unless its a Dec 2009 set up, we had thundery snow from a SW flow off Irish Sea, the flow was arctic but took a long sea passage around a low pressure. Excellent snowy synoptic 20-21 Dec 09!