Major Hurricane Ian.

[matty40s]

Took a while for the shear to allow previous TD9,  now Tropical Storm Ian to start gaining form, but now it seems that the extremely warm gulf will allow Ian to explosively deepen and grow.

Still a lot of uncertainty about track, Florida panhandle or Gulf coast, depending on a trough position, but Ian should reach Major Hurricane status for some of his journey at least.

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Polar Maritime
Changed title to what is now major Hurricane

[karyo]

Florida declared state of emergency for next week!

[Polar Maritime]

Horrific damage this bringing. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Nick F]

Looks menacing on 12z EC for the Florida Gulf coast next Wednesday evening, central pressure dropping to 946mb and max gusts of 165 mph offshore to SW of Tampa, but looks like 130-140mph grazing the coast west of Tampa. as it continues north

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks menacing on 12z EC for the Florida Gulf coast next Wednesday evening, central pressure dropping to 946mb and max gusts of 165 mph offshore to SW of Tampa, but looks like 130-140mph grazing the coast west of Tampa. as it continues north

A bit of a debate going on with the American Forecasting Agents as to the track of the evolving hurricane. The GFS seems to have the centre further west into  The Gulf of Mexico where the sea temps are even higher. A real concern that this could develop into a big one or split into multiple centres . With no upper trough evident for the hurricane to be absorbed into  could develop in to a slow moving force.  If the GFS model proves to be correct a possible tidal surge and flooding will be a risk to lower Louisiana and Texas states. I think at this moment in time , one to watch. but as yet not set in stone.

C

[summer blizzard]

It won't split into multiple centers if at strength. I think what they mean is that the center was broad earlier and it may have relocated.

[Thunder Snow]

Seems like Ian is going to try and go round Cuba 

[karyo]

Big differences in the overnight major model output regarding Ian's track! 

The GFS is on its own with a much more westerly track, taking Ian over the western tip of Cuba and then northwards with a landfall in the Florida penhandle. The UKMO, ICON and ECM are much further east with a landfall somewhere in the west and big impacts for much of the peninsula (less so for the penhandle).

Ian is still a tropical storm in the caribbean and hasn't developed much overnight but intensification is expected to start today.

[AderynCoch]

Getting a few Charley vibes looking at this storm. I think a lot will depend on how quickly it turns eastwards towards Florida; the sooner it happens the less likely it is to be weakened by increased shear to the north.

[matty40s]

 

[Thunder Snow]

Not really sure where to find charts to track Atlantic hurricanes, what cat is Ian likely to reach

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Not really sure where to find charts to track Atlantic hurricanes, what cat is Ian likely to reach

 

[Thunder Snow]

I think if Ian misses Cuba we could see a cat 5

[Gray-Wolf]

My name sake looks to be 'threading the needle' between Cuba & Yucatan so maintaining its strength as it enters the gulf

 

This is just what Katrina did......

[karyo]

Ian has not strengthened much so far today, I wonder what is holding him back as conditions look ideal.

[Sparkiee storm]

If this goes into West Florida as currently modelled then Tampa and the surrounding areas could be affected quite badly with gusts well over 100mph. This is a strange storm because as soon as it goes into northern Florida and into Georgia it bumps into a cold front and strong wind shear breaking it apart pretty quickly. There's still a small chance of it going into the Atlantic after Florida and re strengthening and affecting the East Coast but only a small chance currently.

[FetchCB]

Track looking ominously like Michael now. The only thing that may prevent the same insensity is the shear as it approaches the panhandle. If it doesn't materialise then could make landfall as major hurricane. Worth noting that landfall insensity appears to have been uprated overnight

[karyo]

The 12z UKMO and ICON are out. They are in good agreement with the track of Ian, from western Cuba into the southeastern GOM and landfall somewhere in southwest Florida. This is notably further south and east than the NHC which has a penhandle landfall.

Also worth noting that both the UKMO and ICON show a very slow moving hurricane over Florida which would lead to a lot of flooding.

[Thunder Snow]

I've been watching the nhc briefings on this storm they seem concerned.

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

The 12z UKMO and ICON are out. They are in good agreement with the track of Ian, from western Cuba into the southeastern GOM and landfall somewhere in southwest Florida. This is notably further south and east than the NHC which has a penhandle landfall.

Also worth noting that both the UKMO and ICON show a very slow moving hurricane over Florida which would lead to a lot of flooding.

That UKMet track must be giving the residents of Tampa nightmares. The worst case scenario is a track slightly to the north of Tampa causing the storm surge to pile up into Tampa Bay causing catastrophic flooding with over 3m homes at risk. Apparently Tampa Bay has not seen that type of flooding in over 100 years 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[karyo]

37 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

That UKMet track must be giving the residents of Tampa nightmares. The worst case scenario is a track slightly to the north of Tampa causing the storm surge to pile up into Tampa Bay causing catastrophic flooding with over 3m homes at risk. Apparently Tampa Bay has not seen that type of flooding in over 100 years 

The 12z ECM is very similar to the UKMO and ICON. The GFS is on its own.

 

[matty40s]

 

1 hour ago, FetchCB said:

That UKMet track must be giving the residents of Tampa nightmares. The worst case scenario is a track slightly to the north of Tampa causing the storm surge to pile up into Tampa Bay causing catastrophic flooding with over 3m homes at risk. Apparently Tampa Bay has not seen that type of flooding in over 100 years 

The flooding and storm surge will be the major cause of damage with Ian, not the wind. 

I remember when Reed Timmer was heading into Panama City from Mexico Beach to try to catch the eye, and the storm surge came in so fast his team had to abandon the truck and break into a 2 storey property as the vehicle(still live streaming) slowly started drifting off down the road, crashing into houses and walls.

Given that by 2060, most of Florida will be uninhabitable due to predicted sea level rises, this is probably a sharp reminder that the reclaimed swamp will revert back when it wants, not when man decides.

[ANYWEATHER]

28 minutes ago, matty40s said:

 

The flooding and storm surge will be the major cause of damage with Ian, not the wind. 

I remember when Reed Timmer was heading into Panama City from Mexico Beach to try to catch the eye, and the storm surge came in so fast his team had to abandon the truck and break into a 2 storey property as the vehicle(still live streaming) slowly started drifting off down the road, crashing into houses and walls.

Given that by 2060, most of Florida will be uninhabitable due to predicted sea level rises, this is probably a sharp reminder that the reclaimed swamp will revert back when it wants, not when man decides.

The Predicted sea level rise from years ago never happened,  and never will. It's a little bit like forecasting hurricanes where and when they will form, but model simulations will never it get it right, ,its the weather after all , and Mother Nature's great secret,  Will never be found...