Major Hurricane Ian.

[AderynCoch]

155mph, 936mb. On the threshold of Category 5.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

155mph, 936mb. On the threshold of Category 5.

Wow...

[Jayces]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Impressive that it strengthened so much in just 4 hours! 

I think though that cat 5 is unlikely unless he stalls over water for a time before making landfall.

An hour later and he's on the cusp of CAT 5...

 

[karyo]

Crazy! And there are still a few hours till landfall. 

I think the approximate landfall time is 6pm (UK)

[Marcus_surfer]

Cat 5 comfirmed? its pretty much at the threshold!

[Gray-Wolf]

52 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Passing of Hurricanes Cools Entire Gulf

EARTHOBSERVATORY.NASA.GOV

 

Seems even close to the coastline where the depth is around 50m cold water upwelling occurs 

We've had no 'canes in the area this year & if Tampa is hit it will be the first time since 1921!!!

 

Haiyan showed us the old 'thinking' needs revising as 'churned up waters from depth can, these days, still be over 80f & so continue to fuel the storm?

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

We've had no 'canes in the area this year & if Tampa is hit it will be the first time since 1921!!!

 

Haiyan showed us the old 'thinking' needs revising as 'churned up waters from depth can, these days, still be over 80f & so continue to fuel the storm?

That is true and Michael showed us that as well 

[Fiona Robertson]

I've been keeping my head down after my Canadian friends gave me dog's abuse over Hurricane Fiona and I just quietly followed a wee tropical depression... until it became Ian, my late father's name and I got that feeling in the pit of my stomach. We're obviously keeping it in the family this year. Anyway, someone has probably posted this already, but have they managed to firm up the timing and location of landfall?

[FetchCB]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

Crazy! And there are still a few hours till landfall. 

I think the approximate landfall time is 6pm (UK)

Interestingly or slightly bemusing is the NHC expect Ian to make landfall as Cat4 despite undergoing RI for last 4 hrs and being so close to Cat 5 

Maybe a degree of caution around current measurements? 

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly or slightly bemusing is the NHC expect Ian to make landfall as Cat4 despite undergoing RI for last 4 hrs and being so close to Cat 5 

Maybe a degree of caution around current measurements? 

Gut feeling again, nothing more, but it's gonna be a Cat 5 if it has another 6hrs before landfall. Those waters are warm.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly or slightly bemusing is the NHC expect Ian to make landfall as Cat4 despite undergoing RI for last 4 hrs and being so close to Cat 5 

Maybe a degree of caution around current measurements? 

Yes, I don't know why they still talk about cat 4 when their 7am update says maximum sustained winds 155mph, central pressure 937mb.

[matty40s]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, I don't know why they still talk about cat 4 when their 7am update says maximum sustained winds 155mph, central pressure 937mb.

2 reasons, the shear starting to hit, and the very shallow angle of approach to Florida meaning almost half the hurricane will be sliding over land long before the eye hits.

I think it will become a 5 and drop to a 3 by eye landfall

Edited September 28, 2022 by matty40s

[Fiona Robertson]

2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

2 reasons, the shear starting to hit, and the very shallow angle of approach to Florida meaning almost half the hurricane will be sliding over land long before the eye hits.

I think it will become a 5 and drop to a 3 by eye landfall

That makes sense. Been on a live cam hunt, only working one I have found so far is this one located in Punta Gorda 

Live Camera at King Fisher Fleet | King Fisher Fleet

KINGFISHERFLEET.COM

 

[matty40s]

This poor stormchaser has just had his stream ended by a white jeep taking his front end out, rewind 1 minute...

 

[matty40s]

Read Timmer has installed one of his "Surginator" probes onto one of the pier legs here. You can access the data through a link on his Twitter feed.

 

[Thunder Snow]

When is land fall uk time 

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

When is land fall uk time 

Around 6pm I believe.

[matty40s]

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Just noticed a 157.7 mph on western eye wall 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

An absolute monster. Hope everyone has got out of the way of this imminent destruction. Praying for everyone. 

[Eagle Eye]

15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

Wow that is looking major, fearing what damage may happen from this.

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

[joggs]

Looks a cat 5 at landfall to me. 4  hours and counting for unlikely weakening.

[Jimmyh]

watch Simon Brooker he is saying inlet water is being dragged out to see live on the youtube at moment unbelievable 

LIVE #IRL - Hurricane IAN Intercept in Southwest Florida - 9/28/2022 - YouTube