Major Hurricane Ian.

[matty40s]

Ian just moved into Major Hurricane status.

 

 

On 25/09/2022 at 21:00, ANYWEATHER said:

The Predicted sea level rise from years ago never happened,  and never will. It's a little bit like forecasting hurricanes where and when they will form, but model simulations will never it get it right, ,its the weather after all , and Mother Nature's great secret,  Will never be found...

Do you believe us yet??

[Thunder Snow]

Ian is now a major hurricane packing winds of 115mph

[karyo]

There is a notable shift south in most models. As things stand now, I'd say there is more chance for a landfall somewhere around Cape Coral. Tampa must be praying that this is correct as yesterday's ECM was a nightmare for Tampa bay.

ECM, UKMO and ICON then take Ian slowly over the peninsula to the Atlantic coast and then a slow move northwards with a potential landfall in Georgia but a much weaker storm by then.

The GFS out on its own as usual, with a track further north and west but even that has shifted towards the euros to some degree.

[Thunder Snow]

Ian max sustained winds are 125mph as he approaches Cuba 

[karyo]

10 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Ian max sustained winds are 125mph as he approaches Cuba 

He will be over land for the next few hours so we will have to see if this will stop the strengthening and to what a degree. 

Further strengthening is expected once he emerges over the GOM waters.

[GSP]

9 minutes ago, karyo said:

He will be over land for the next few hours so we will have to see if this will stop the strengthening and to what a degree. 

Further strengthening is expected once he emerges over the GOM waters.

Cat 3. That’s a lot of very warm water to tap into once it reaches the sea again and do wonder if this could end up a high 4. The ‘experts’ seem to be ruling out a 5, but is it possible.

Good to see the words he and she being mentioned with no hint of gender neutrality. Storms must be immune, for now!

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, GSP said:

Cat 3. That’s a lot of very warm water to tap into once it reaches the sea again and do wonder if this could end up a high 4. The ‘experts’ seem to be ruling out a 5, but is it possible.

Good to see the words he and she being mentioned with no hint of gender neutrality. Storms must be immune, for now!

I think cat5 is unlikely because he will not have very long time over the GOM waters. From western Cuba to southwest Florida there is a relatively short stretch of water. If the track was more to the west then there would be more time. But the overnight models (and now also the 6z ones) continue to shift the track a touch further east.

As things stand this morning, the chances for Ian to emegre in the Atlantic (after Florida) have increased.

[Thunder Snow]

I think we we be looking at a strong cat 3 possibly 4

[Thunder Snow]

Ian is maintaining his strength as he crosses slowly across Cuba 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Thunder Snow

[Gray-Wolf]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

I think cat5 is unlikely because he will not have very long time over the GOM waters. From western Cuba to southwest Florida there is a relatively short stretch of water. If the track was more to the west then there would be more time. But the overnight models (and now also the 6z ones) continue to shift the track a touch further east.

As things stand this morning, the chances for Ian to emegre in the Atlantic (after Florida) have increased.

I think, over recent years, many forecasters have been caught out at the speed of 'rapid intensification'?

I think the depth of water that is hot enough to fuel such is at play as even the Majors now churns up more  'fuel' for further growth?

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

I think we we be looking at a strong cat 3 possibly 4

It's already a strong cat 3 at the moment. Cat 4 is looking likely I think, wouldn't rule out a cat 5 though it's time in the GOM is likely too short unless it encounters perfect conditions for Rapid Intensification.

Given what we have seen with Michael and Matthew in recent years though, it's a possibility.

[Thunder Snow]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

It's already a strong cat 3 at the moment. Cat 4 is looking likely I think, wouldn't rule out a cat 5 though it's time in the GOM is likely too short unless it encounters perfect conditions for Rapid Intensification.

Given what we have seen with Michael and Matthew in recent years though, it's a possibility.

Yer I fully agree, I was assuming it would weaken slightly as it hit Cuba, as don't they have a lot of mountains I'm sure I've heard a member say that before unless it's further to the east.  ?

[Derecho]

Just now, Thunder Snow said:

Yer I fully agree, I was assuming it would weaken slightly as it hit Cuba, as don't they have a lot of mountains I'm sure I've heard a member say that before unless it's further to the east.  ?

Doesn't seem to be doing so at the moment, latest satellite shows it looking well organised at this point so it seems to be holding up with it pushing north back into the GOM shortly. Though yeah I thought a bit of land interaction would have weakened it as well.

[Jimmyh]

are there any webcams we can see the current status in Cuba

 

[summer blizzard]

Eyewall is mostly back over water.

[matty40s]

It doesnt matter how much wind really, it's all going to be underwater anyway!!

 

[karyo]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think, over recent years, many forecasters have been caught out at the speed of 'rapid intensification'?

I think the depth of water that is hot enough to fuel such is at play as even the Majors now churns up more  'fuel' for further growth?

Yes, that's true. There are several recent examples of the intensification exceeding what the models were predicting.

[weatherobsuk]

HURRICANE IAN

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Cape Coral, Charlotte, and Tampa storm-surge predictions.

[Red Raven]

The storm surge is predicted be 9ft on these streets. These houses (of which there are hundreds) are gone if the forecast is correct.

[karyo]

The 11am NHC update shows that Ian has weakened somewhat.

Muximum sustained winds 115mph

The atmospheric pressure has also risen to 963mb

However, he is now back over water and the forward speed has slowed down to just 10mph. From now on he will be a slow moving beast!

[Slysi100]

Quite fun watching these dodge the waves at Key West Florida

https://youtu.be/2LpEN8OenEE

[Arnie Pie]

19 minutes ago, Slysi100 said:

Quite fun watching these dodge the waves at Key West Florida

What could possibly go wrong

[Thunder Snow]

Looks like Cuba took a little bit out of Ian, now we await to see how quick he can strengthen 

[Lauren]

3 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

are there any webcams we can see the current status in Cuba

 

They still haven't got mainstream internet yet so I doubt there will be any webcams.

[Thunder Snow]

Ian has slowed down a little bit since last update 12mph to 10mph